Thomas J. Zlatoper

U.S. professional football game-day attendance

This paper uses Tobit analysis to estimate a model which explains game-day attendance at professional football games in the U.S. Several potential determinants of attendance are accounted for in the model. The data used in the analysis pertain to 392 regular season games played during the 1986 and 1987 National Football League seasons. The estimation results suggest that attendance is greater when the opposing teams—particularly, the home team—are of higher quality. There is also evidence that games expected to be close in score are more heavily attended than those that are not. Rainy conditions reduce fan turnout, although warmer temperatures lessen the negative effect of precipitation. Higher ticket prices lead to lower attendance, and fans are apparently indifferent to whether games are played either indoors or outdoors.

U.S. AIR PASSENGER SERVICE: A TAXONOMY OF ROUTE NETWORKS, HUB LOCATIONS, AND COMPETITION

In this paper, we analyze the service provided by the 13 largest U.S. passenger airlines to the 100 most populous U.S. metropolitan areas in 1989. We classify the route systems by their nature and geographical extent using a variety of measures based on route-level data. We then identify individual airline hub locations and derive and calculate several measures of the extent of competition both on individual routes and at the airports in our sample. The results show the wide diversity of route networks that existed in the airline industry in 1989--a phenomenon that may help to explain the failure of several major carriers since then.

Freight transportation demand: a survey of recent econometric studies

This paper surveys econometric studies of freight transportation demand which have been published since the mid-1970s. It describes the variables, data sources, and estimation procedures utilized by the studies. In addition, it summarizes their statistical results. The studies included in this survey typically accounted for freight rates and service characteristics (e.g., transit time and reliability). Data sources often varied across the studies.Based on the data they utilized, the surveyed studies are classified as either aggregate or disaggregate. The data in the aggregate studies consist of information on total flows by modes at the regional or national level, while the data in the disaggregate studies pertain to individual shipments. The earlier aggregate studies estimated linear logit models. It has been pointed out that when they are estimated on aggregate data these models are subject to certain shortcomings. To avoid these shortcomings, more recent aggregate studies have estimated flexible forms such as translog functions. The disaggregate studies surveyed in this paper used either logit or probit models.Statistical results often varied with the commodities analyzed, making it somewhat difficult to generalize the findings of the different studies. One finding common to several studies is that freight rates have a significant impact on shipment decisions. This paper discusses certain theoretical and empirical limitations of the surveyed studies. It also offers suggestions for future research in freight transport demand. Freight demand models can be used to examine various effects of the recent deregulation in freight transportation.

Determinants of motor vehicle deaths in the united states: A cross-sectional analysis

This paper uses 1987 state-level data and least-squares regression to estimate a model of motor vehicle deaths in the United States. The model includes several factors accounted for in previous cross-sectional studies of these fatalities. The estimates suggest that income, the ratio of urban to rural driving, expenditures on highway police and safety, motor vehicle inspection laws, and adult seat belt use laws with secondary enforcement provisions are inversely related to motor vehicle death rates. They also indicate that volume of driving, speed, speed variance, driving density, alcohol consumption, temperature, and a dummy variable for western states are directly related to the rates.

MODELS EXPLAINING MOTOR VEHICLE DEATH RATES IN THE UNITED STATES

This paper is a selective survey of models explaining motor vehicle death rates in the United States. First, it reviews Peltzmans 1975 study of the effect of automobile safety regulation and critiques of the study. Then it summarizes several subsequent statistical studies of highway fatalities. The surveyed studies are typically regression analyses of the impact of various factors on motor vehicle deaths. They are categorized in this paper according to which of three types of data they utilized: time-series; cross-sectional; or pooled time-series, cross-sectional. This paper notes what can be inferred collectively from the surveyed studies regarding the impacts of various factors on highway fatalities. It also discusses certain shortcomings of the studies in general along with possible remedies, and makes recommendations regarding future research. Tabular summaries of the statistical studies surveyed in this paper are included in the Appendix.

The Effects of Mandatory Seat Belt Laws on Motor Vehicle Fatalities in the United States

Objective. This article assesses the effectiveness of mandated seat belt usage. The theory of offsetting behavior asserts that when drivers feel safer, they compensate by driving less cautiously. As a consequence, any lifesaving effects from mandated safety devices such as seat belts could be significantly diminished or entirely offset. Methods. This article uses regression analysis and two years (1988 and 1997) of state‐level data to test for the presence of offsetting behavior by estimating models explaining total and nonoccupant motor vehicle deaths. In addition to accounting for several factors generally acknowledged as being determinants of highway deaths, the models control for the impact of primary and secondary seat belt laws. Results. The findings suggest the existence of offsetting behavior by drivers of motor vehicles. Conclusions. We need to recognize the probability of such compensatory behavior and direct our efforts at ways of ameliorating the adverse effects.

Factors affecting motor vehicle deaths in the USA: some cross-sectional evidence

This paper uses 1970 cross-sectional data for the USA to estimate an extended version of Peltzmans (1975) model of motor vehicle deaths. In estimating the model, the issue of functional form is considered. Four standard specifications of the model are tested against a less restricted formulation, and all are rejected at a significance level of 0.01. The less restricted formulation is utilized to estimate the impacts on motor vehicle deaths of various potential determinants. For the most part, the estimated effects are similar to those found in Peltzmans study. A notable exception pertains to the estimated influence of automobile safety regulation. While Peltzman concluded that such regulation was ineffective in reducing motor vehicle deaths, results in this paper suggest that it contributed to a decline in the deaths.

Obesity and motor vehicle deaths in the USA: a state‐level analysis

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the linkage between obesity and motor vehicle deaths. Design/methodology/approach - The paper specifies a model that explains highway fatalities, which accounts for obesity in its set of potential determinants. State-level data are utilized in this paper. The values for all variables are for the year 2005. They correspond to 46 of the contiguous states for all measures. The model is estimated by multiple regressions. Findings - The paper finds that the motor vehicle death rate (fatalities per million vehicle miles) has a statistically significant positive relationship with the percentage of the population that is obese. The death rate also has significant positive associations with the percentage of elderly male drivers, per capita alcohol consumption, and temperature; and it has significant negative relationships with per capita income, the percentage of elderly female drivers, seat belt use, and precipitation. Practical implications - The estimates of this paper have various policy implications. For example, the findings pertaining to occupant body weight imply that efforts leading to a decline in the prevalence of obesity will also lower the highway death risk. Results suggest that obesity increases this death risk by contributing to more accidents. If so, measures that reduce obesity-related unsafe driving behaviors (e.g. increased chance of falling asleep while driving) could save lives. Originality/value - The paper adds to the research on the relationship between highway safety and obesity. The papers unique contributions include estimating the linkage between obesity and motor vehicle deaths by regression analysis on US state-level data for 2005 within a model that controls for economic conditions and other considerations such as driver and passenger characteristics, locational factors, government regulations, and weather conditions.