Thomas Keegan

Arsenic enrichment in waters and sediments of the Rio Loa (Second Region, Chile)

The Second Region of Chile (126,500 km2) is extremely arid, with a dramatic scarcity of water. The only water resource for the population (about 420,000 habitants) and the mining industry (the most important economic activity in the region) is the 440 km long Rio Loa. Moreover, this is highly enriched in As. In order to assess As concentrations and sources, and to evaluate the impact of mining activity on the water quality in the Rio Loa basin, water and sediment samples were taken at strategic points along the river and its major tributaries. The water in the whole basin is quite saline (total dissolved solids up to 11 g/l) and heavily enriched in As (average: 1400 μg/l) and B (average: 21,000 μg/l). These values are up to 300 and 100 times higher than the respective guidelines suggested by the WHO for drinking water. The quality of water is extremely poor along the tributary Salado, mainly fed by the El Tatio geothermal waters that are very rich in As (up to 27,000 μg/l) and other components. Sediments from the Rio Loa and its tributaries have As contents in the range of 26–2000 mg/kg (mean value of 60 samples: 320 mg/kg), and reach 11,000 mg/kg at El Tatio. Sequential extraction analyses show the As to be mainly associated with Fe–Mn oxy-hydroxides and residual phases, but part of the As (about 20%) is readily available being extracted from the exchangeable and carbonate phases. This result is in agreement with the correlation observed between As content in sediments and As concentration in waters in the area. The extreme arid conditions, high evaporation, and the lack of low-As tributaries contribute to maintain high concentrations of As and other components in the Rio Loa water to the mouth. Due to the oxidising conditions, neutral to alkaline pH, high salinity and high As concentrations, adsorption of As-species is not favoured. The main As source in the Rio Loa basin is considered to be natural, i.e. linked to the lithologies in the area. Smelter emissions and mining wastes, as well as the As-rich effluents from the water treatment plants, possibly represent additional sources.

Childhood leukaemia near British nuclear installations: methodological issues and recent results

In 2008, the German Childhood Cancer Registry published the results of the Kinderkrebs in der Umgebung von Kernkraftwerken (KiKK) study of childhood cancer and leukaemia around German nuclear power stations. The positive findings appeared to conflict with the results of a recent British analysis carried out by the Committee on Medical Aspects of Radiation in the Environment (COMARE), published in 2005. The present paper first describes the COMARE study, which was based on data from the National Registry of Childrens Tumours (NRCT); in particular, the methodology used in this study is described. Although the results of the COMARE study were negative for childhood leukaemia, this apparent discrepancy could be accounted for by a number of differences in approach, especially those relating to the distances from the power stations and the ages of the children studied. The present study was designed to match the KiKK study as far as possible. The incidence observed (18 cases within 5 km against 14.58 expected, p = 0.21) was not significantly raised. The risk estimate for proximity in the regression fitted was actually negative, though the confidence intervals involved are so wide that the difference from that reported in the KiKK study is only marginally statistically significant (p = 0.063).

Residential distance at birth from overhead high-voltage powerlines : childhood cancer risk in Britain 1962-2008

Background:We extend our previous study of childhood leukaemia and proximity to high-voltage powerlines by including more recent data and cases and controls from Scotland, by considering 132-kV powerlines as well as 275 and 400 kV and by looking at greater distances from the powerlines.Methods:Case–control study using 53 515 children from the National Registry of Childhood Tumours 1962–2008, matched controls, and calculated distances of mother’s address at child’s birth to powerlines at 132, 275, and 400 kV in England, Wales and Scotland.Results:Our previous finding of an excess risk for leukaemia at distances out to 600 m declines over time. Relative risk and 95% confidence interval for leukaemia, 0–199 m compared with>1000 m, all voltages: 1960s 4.50 (0.97–20.83), 2000s 0.71 (0.49–1.03), aggregate over whole period 1.12 (0.90–1.38). Increased risk, albeit less strong, may also be present for 132-kV lines. Increased risk does not extend beyond 600 m for lines of any voltage.Conclusions:A risk declining over time is unlikely to arise from any physical effect of the powerlines and is more likely to be the result of changing population characteristics among those living near powerlines.

Case-control study of paternal occupation and childhood leukaemia in Great Britain, 1962-2006.

Background:Paternal occupational exposures have been proposed as a risk factor for childhood leukaemia. This study investigates possible associations between paternal occupational exposure and childhood leukaemia in Great Britain.Methods:The National Registry of Childhood Tumours provided all cases of childhood leukaemia born and diagnosed in Great Britain between 1962 and 2006. Controls were matched on sex, period of birth and birth registration subdistrict. Fathers’ occupations were assigned to 1 or more of 33 exposure groups. Social class was derived from father’s occupation at the time of the child’s birth.Results:A total of 16 764 cases of childhood leukaemia were ascertained. One exposure group, paternal social contact, was associated with total childhood leukaemia (odds ratio 1.14, 1.05–1.23); this association remained significant when adjusted for social class. The subtypes lymphoid leukaemia (LL) and acute myeloid leukaemia showed increased risk with paternal exposure to social contact before adjustment for social class. Risk of other leukaemias was significantly increased by exposure to electromagnetic fields, persisting after adjustment for social class. For total leukaemia, the risks for exposure to lead and exhaust fumes were significantly <1. Occupationally derived social class was associated with risk of LL, with the risk being increased in the higher social classes.Conclusion:Our results showed some support for a positive association between childhood leukaemia risk and paternal occupation involving social contact. Additionally, LL risk increased with higher paternal occupational social class.

Relative deprivation between neighbouring wards is predictive of coronary heart disease mortality after adjustment for absolute deprivation of wards

Background The aims of this study were to assess whether deprivation inequality at small area level in England is associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates and to assess whether this provides evidence of an association between area-level and individual-level risk. Methods Mortality rates for all wards in England were calculated using all CHD deaths between 2001 and 2006. Ward-level deprivation was measured using the Carstairs Index. Deprivation inequality within local authorities (LAs) was measured by the IQR of deprivation for wards within the LA. Relative deprivation for wards was measured as the modulus of the difference between deprivation for the ward and average deprivation for all neighbouring wards. Results Deprivation inequality within LAs was positively associated with CHD mortality rates per 100 000 (eg, all men β; 95% CI=2.7; 1.1 to 4.3) after adjustment for absolute deprivation (p<0.001 for all models). Relative deprivation for wards was positively associated with CHD mortality rates per 100 000 (eg, all men 1.4; 0.7 to 2.1) after adjustment for absolute deprivation (p<0.001 for all models). Subgroup analyses showed that relative deprivation was independently associated with CHD mortality rates in both affluent and deprived wards. Conclusions Rich wards surrounded by poor areas have higher CHD mortality rates than rich wards surrounded by rich areas, and poor wards surrounded by rich areas have worse CHD mortality rates than poor wards surrounded by poor areas. Local deprivation inequality has a similar adverse impact on both rich and poor areas, supporting the hypothesis that income inequality of an area has an impact on individual-level health outcomes.

Seasonal Influenza Vaccination amongst Medical Students: A Social Network Analysis Based on a Cross-Sectional Study

Introduction The Chief Medical Officer for England recommends that healthcare workers have a seasonal influenza vaccination in an attempt to protect both patients and NHS staff. Despite this, many healthcare workers do not have a seasonal influenza vaccination. Social network analysis is a well-established research approach that looks at individuals in the context of their social connections. We examine the effects of social networks on influenza vaccination decision and disease dynamics. Methods We used a social network analysis approach to look at vaccination distribution within the network of the Lancaster Medical School students and combined these data with the students’ beliefs about vaccination behaviours. We then developed a model which simulated influenza outbreaks to study the effects of preferentially vaccinating individuals within this network. Results Of the 253 eligible students, 217 (86%) provided relational data, and 65% of responders had received a seasonal influenza vaccination. Students who were vaccinated were more likely to think other medical students were vaccinated. However, there was no clustering of vaccinated individuals within the medical student social network. The influenza simulation model demonstrated that vaccination of well-connected individuals may have a disproportional effect on disease dynamics. Conclusions This medical student population exhibited vaccination coverage levels similar to those seen in other healthcare groups but below recommendations. However, in this population, a lack of vaccination clustering might provide natural protection from influenza outbreaks. An individual student’s perception of the vaccination coverage amongst their peers appears to correlate with their own decision to vaccinate, but the directionality of this relationship is not clear. When looking at the spread of disease within a population it is important to include social structures alongside vaccination data. Social networks influence disease epidemiology and vaccination campaigns designed with information from social networks could be a future target for policy makers.

Mortality in British military participants in human experimental research into chemical warfare agents at Porton Down: cohort study

Objective To investigate any long term effects on mortality in participants in experimental research related to chemical warfare agents from 1941 to 1989. Design Historical cohort study. Data sources Archive of UK government research facility at Porton Down, UK military personnel records, and national death and cancer records. Participants 18 276 male members of the UK armed forces who had spent one or more short periods (median 4 days between first and last test) at Porton Down and a comparison group of 17 600 non-Porton Down veterans followed to 31 December 2004. Main outcome measures Mortality rate ratio of Porton Down compared with non-Porton Down veterans and standardised mortality ratio of each veteran group compared with the general population. Both ratios adjusted for age group and calendar period. Results Porton Down veterans were similar to non-Porton Down veterans in year of enlistment (median 1951) but had longer military service (median 6.2 v 5.0 years). After a median follow-up of 43 years, 40% (7306) of Porton Down and 39% (6900) of non-Porton Down veterans had died. All cause mortality was slightly greater in Porton Down veterans (rate ratio 1.06, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.10, P<0.001), more so for deaths outside the UK (1.26, 1.09 to 1.46). Of 12 cause specific groups examined, rate ratios in Porton Down veterans were increased for deaths attributed to infectious and parasitic (1.57, 1.07 to 2.29), genitourinary (1.46, 1.04 to 2.04), circulatory (1.07, 1.01 to 1.12), and external (non-medical) (1.17, 1.00 to 1.37) causes and decreased for deaths attributed to in situ, benign, and unspecified neoplasms (0.60, 0.37 to 0.99). There was no clear relation between type of chemical exposure and cause specific mortality. The mortality in both groups of veterans was lower than that in the general population (standardised mortality ratio 0.88, 0.85 to 0.90; 0.82, 0.80 to 0.84). Conclusions Mortality was slightly higher in Porton Down than non-Porton Down veterans. With lack of information on other important factors, such as smoking or service overseas, it is not possible to attribute the small excess mortality to chemical exposures at Porton Down.

Cancer morbidity in British military veterans included in chemical warfare agent experiments at Porton Down : cohort study

Objective To determine cancer morbidity in members of the armed forces who took part in tests of chemical warfare agents from 1941 to 1989. Design Historical cohort study, with cohort members followed up to December 2004. Data source Archive of UK government research facility at Porton Down, UK military personnel records, and national death and cancer records. Participants All veterans included in the cohort study of mortality, excluding those known to have died or been lost to follow-up before 1 January 1971 when the UK cancer registration system commenced: 17 013 male members of the UK armed forces who took part in tests (Porton Down veterans) and a similar group of 16 520 men who did not (non-Porton Down veterans). Main outcome measures Cancer morbidity in each group of veterans; rate ratios, with 95% confidence intervals, adjusted for age group and calendar period. Results 3457 cancers were reported in the Porton Down veterans compared with 3380 cancers in the non-Porton Down veterans. While overall cancer morbidity was the same in both groups (rate ratio 1.00, 95% confidence interval 0.95 to 1.05), Porton Down veterans had higher rates of ill defined malignant neoplasms (1.12, 1.02 to 1.22), in situ neoplasms (1.45, 1.06 to 2.00), and those of uncertain or unknown behaviour (1.32, 1.01 to 1.73). Conclusion Overall cancer morbidity in Porton Down veterans was no different from that in non-Porton Down veterans.

Spatial analysis of health effects of large industrial incinerators in England, 1998-2008: a study using matched case-control areas.

Objectives To assess whether residential proximity to industrial incinerators in England is associated with increased risk of cancer incidence and mortality. Design Retrospective study using matched case–control areas. Setting Five circular regions of radius 10 km near industrial incinerators in England (case regions) and five matched control regions, 1998–2008. Participants All cases of diseases of interest within the circular areas. Primary and secondary outcome measures Counts of childhood cancer incidence (<15 years); childhood leukaemia incidence (<15 years); leukaemia incidence; liver cancer incidence; lung cancer incidence; non-Hodgkins lymphoma incidence; all-cause mortality; infant mortality (<1 year) and liver cancer mortality. Results The estimated relative risks for case circles versus control circles for the nine outcomes considered range from 0.94 to 1.14, and show neither elevated risk in case circles compared to control areas nor elevated risk with proximity to incinerators within case circles. Conclusions This study applies statistical methods for analysing spatially referenced health outcome data in regions with a hypothesised exposure relative to matched regions with no such exposure. There is no evidence of elevated risk of cancer incidence or mortality in the vicinity of large industrial incinerators in England.

Socialization, Indifference, and Convenience: Exploring the Uptake of Influenza Vaccine Among Medical Students and Early Career Doctors

The Chief Medical Officer recommends that all health care workers receive an influenza vaccination annually. High vaccination coverage is believed to be the best protection against the spread of influenza within a hospital, although uptake by health care workers remains low. We conducted semistructured interviews with seven medical students and nine early career doctors, to explore the factors informing their influenza vaccination decision making. Data collection and analysis took place iteratively, until theoretical saturation was achieved, and a thematic analysis was performed. Socialization was important although its effects were attenuated by participants’ previous experiences and a lack of clarity around the risks and benefits of vaccination. Many participants did not have strong intentions regarding vaccination. There was considerable disparity between an individual’s opinion of the vaccine, their intentions, and their vaccination status. The indifference demonstrated here suggests few are strongly opposed to the vaccination—there is potential to increase vaccination coverage.