Thomas Kitzberger

Disturbance regime and disturbance interactions in a Rocky Mountain subalpine forest

The spatial and temporal patterns of fire, snow avalanches and spruce beetle outbreaks were investigated in Marvine Lakes Valley in the Colorado Rocky Mountains in forests of Picea engelmannii, Abies lasiocarpa, Pseudotsuga menziesii and Populus tremuloides. Dates and locations of disturbances were determined by dendrochronological techniques. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to calculate areas affected by the different disturbance agents and to examine the spatial relationships of the different disturbances. In the Marvine Lakes Valley, major disturbance was caused by fire in the 1470s, the 1630s and the 1870s and by spruce beetle outbreak in c. 1716, 1827 and 1949 (...)

Contingent Pacific–Atlantic Ocean influence on multicentury wildfire synchrony over western North America

Widespread synchronous wildfires driven by climatic variation, such as those that swept western North America during 1996, 2000, and 2002, can result in major environmental and societal impacts. Understanding relationships between continental-scale patterns of drought and modes of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) may explain how interannual to multidecadal variability in SSTs drives fire at continental scales. We used local wildfire chronologies reconstructed from fire scars on tree rings across western North America and independent reconstructions of SST developed from tree-ring widths at other sites to examine the relationships of multicentury patterns of climate and fire synchrony. From 33,039 annually resolved fire-scar dates at 238 sites (the largest paleofire record yet assembled), we examined forest fires at regional and subcontinental scales. Since 1550 CE, drought and forest fires covaried across the West, but in a manner contingent on SST modes. During certain phases of ENSO and PDO, fire was synchronous within broad subregions and sometimes asynchronous among those regions. In contrast, fires were most commonly synchronous across the West during warm phases of the AMO. ENSO and PDO were the main drivers of high-frequency variation in fire (interannual to decadal), whereas the AMO conditionally changed the strength and spatial influence of ENSO and PDO on wildfire occurrence at multidecadal scales. A current warming trend in AMO suggests that we may expect an increase in widespread, synchronous fires across the western U.S. in coming decades.

FIRE HISTORY IN NORTHERN PATAGONIA: THE ROLES OF HUMANS AND CLIMATIC VARIATION

The effects of humans and climatic variation on fire history in northern Patagonia, Argentina, were examined by dating fire scars on 458 trees at 21 sites in rain forests of Fitzroya cupressoides and xeric woodlands of Austrocedrus chilensis from 39° to 43° S latitude. Climatic variation associated with fires was analyzed on the basis of 20th-century observational records and tree ring proxy records of climatic variation since approximately AD 1500. In the Austrocedrus woodlands, fire frequency increases after about 1850, coincident with greater use of the area by Native American hunters. Increased burning, particularly in the zone of more mesic forests, is also strongly associated with forest clearing by European settlers from about 1880 to the early 1900s. The marked decline in fire frequency during the 20th century coincides with both the demise of Native American hunters in the 1890s and increasingly effective fire exclusion. Strong synchroneity in the years of widespread fire at sample sites disperse...

EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC VARIABILITY ON FACILITATION OF TREE ESTABLISHMENT IN NORTHERN PATAGONIA

Facilitation of tree establishment by nurse shrubs, which ameliorate otherwise unfavorable microenvironmental conditions, is a widely studied phenomenon. However, relatively little is known about how facilitative influences change in relation to interannual climatic variability. In northern Patagonia, Argentina, we examined influences of potential nurse shrubs on the establishment of the conifer Austrocedrus chilensis and assessed the significance of those influences to establishment during years of contrasting climate. We also experimentally investigated the effects of nurse shrubs and different water availability on tree seedling emergence and survival. A strong spatial association of Austrocedrus juveniles with shrubs, both beneath shrub canopies and near shrub canopies, indicates that shrubs favorably influence tree regeneration and that in some habitats and time periods nurse plants appear to be required for successful tree seedling establishment. Protection from direct sunlight was the main factor c...

LANDSCAPE INFLUENCES ON OCCURRENCE AND SPREAD OF WILDFIRES IN PATAGONIAN FORESTS AND SHRUBLANDS

Spatial heterogeneity of vegetation types and the abiotic environment can influence the occurrence and spread of wildfires, but in some landscapes the importance of these effects varies under conditions of severe fire weather. In the northern Patagonian landscape of forests and shrublands we examined the effects of vegetation type (tall forest vs. tall shrubland) and abiotic factors (elevation, topography, and precipitation) on fire occurrence at a broad scale and on fire spread at a fine scale. We used satellite images (1985-1999) and aerial photography (1950-1999) to map fires in relation to pre-burn vegetation type and abiotic factors. Fire extent is greatest at intermediate elevations and locations of intermediate precipitation. Fire extent is limited by lack of fuel quantity at the lower end of the precipitation gradient and by infrequent or insufficient fuel desiccation at the upper end. Tall shrublands are proportionally more affected by fire than are adjacent mesic forests of Nothofagus dombeyi and N. pumilio. Patches of subalpine forests often tend to serve as natural fire breaks, except under the most severe fire weather. Tall shrublands are dominated by species that resprout vigorously so that fuels quickly recover. In contrast, forests are dominated by species dependent on seed reproduction that sometimes fails after severe fires so that shrublands tend to replace burned forests. The greater propensity of shrublands to burn is a positive feedback that is favorable to fire and that accelerates the replacement of forest by shrublands. Infrequently occurring severe weather is important in the burning of otherwise relatively fire-resistant subalpine forests. Past burning, associated both with drought and early forest clearing, expanded shrublands at the expense of forests so that in the modern landscape an increase in anthropogenic ignitions and the positive feedback of fire and shrublands are synergistically accelerating conversion from forest to shrubland.

Disturbance and forest dynamics along a transect from Andean rain forest to Patagonian shrubland

. At ca. 40° S in northern Patagonia, Andean rain forests are replaced eastwards by woodlands and shrublands and eventually by steppe. Along this gradient we examined stand dynamics by analyzing tree population age structures and tree growth patterns. We also examined spatial and temporal characteristics of disturbance regimes by dating disturbances and mapping stands of differing disturbance history. From west to east, the ecological importance of earthquake-related disturbance decreases, whereas that of fire, logging, and livestock increases. Abrupt changes in rates of tree growth correspond with earthquakes in 1837, 1939 and 1960. In the mesic western forests earthquakes can result in massive new tree establishment on landslide-affected sites and increased rates of treefall. Fire, however, is the more pervasive disturbance over most of the gradient and creates extensive even-aged patches dominated by the regionally dominant trees, Nothofagus and Austrocedrus. Although some lightning-ignited and aboriginal-set fires occurred in these forests prior to European settlement, much of the present forest structure may be attributed to the massive burning associated with European settlement of this area near the turn of the present century. In contrast to the settlement-related increase in fire frequency in the western forested district, at the woodland/steppe ecotone the demise of the native American population resulted in a decrease in fire frequency. Heavy browsing and grazing following fire can seriously impede post-fire tree regeneration. These preliminary results document the important influences of varying disturbance regimes along a major environmental gradient in creating landscape-scale vegetation patterns.

Cost-effectiveness of dryland forest restoration evaluated by spatial analysis of ecosystem services

Although ecological restoration is widely used to combat environmental degradation, very few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of this approach. We examine the potential impact of forest restoration on the value of multiple ecosystem services across four dryland areas in Latin America, by estimating the net value of ecosystem service benefits under different reforestation scenarios. The values of selected ecosystem services were mapped under each scenario, supported by the use of a spatially explicit model of forest dynamics. We explored the economic potential of a change in land use from livestock grazing to restored native forest using different discount rates and performed a cost–benefit analysis of three restoration scenarios. Results show that passive restoration is cost-effective for all study areas on the basis of the services analyzed, whereas the benefits from active restoration are generally outweighed by the relatively high costs involved. These findings were found to be relatively insensitive to discount rate but were sensitive to the market value of carbon. Substantial variation in values was recorded between study areas, demonstrating that ecosystem service values are strongly context specific. However, spatial analysis enabled localized areas of net benefits to be identified, indicating the value of this approach for identifying the relative costs and benefits of restoration interventions across a landscape.

Influences of humans and ENSO on fire history of Austrocedrus chilensis woodlands in northern Patagonia, Argentina

Abstract:In northern Patagonia, Argentina, five areas near the ecotone of xeric woodlands and the steppe were sampled for fire history to assess spatial and temporal variations in fire regimes. A total of 214 fire-scar samples from the xeric conifer Austrocedrus chilensis (D. Don) Florin & Bout, yielded 430 cross-dated fire dates from AD 1439 to 1989. A regional trend of increasing fire frequency during the latter half of the 19th century coincides with increased native American occupation of the area. There is a marked decline in fire frequency following the demise of the native American population in the late 1800s and in association with increasingly effective fire suppression during the 20th century. Inter-site variations in the frequency of small fires appear to reflect intra-regional variations in human activities. In contrast, regional synchroneity of years of more widespread fires implies greater climatic control of major burning events. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are a major influ...

Fire-induced changes in northern Patagonian landscapes

In northern Patagonia, Argentina we quantify changes in fire frequency along a gradient from mesic Nothofagus dombeyi forest to xeric woodlands of Austrocedrus chilensis at the steppe ecotone, and we examine patterns of vegetation change coincident with the changes in fire regimes across a range of spatial scales. At a regional scale changes in land cover types are documented by comparing 1:250 000 scale cover type maps from 1913 and 1985. Changes in landscape structure are analyzed by comparing vegetation patterns on 1:24 000 scale aerial photographs taken in 1940 and 1970. Fire frequency peaked in the late nineteenth-century due to widespread burning and clearing of forests by European settlers late in the century. Subsequently, fire frequency declined dramatically about 1910 due to the cessation of intentional fires and has remained low due to increasingly effective fire exclusion. At a regional scale there has been a dramatic increase during the twentieth century in the proportion of forest cover relative to areas mapped as recent burns or shrublands in 1913. Remnant forest patches that survived the widespread late-nineteenth century burning have coalesced to form more continuous forest covers, and formerly continuous areas of shrublands have become dissected by forest. Under reduced fire frequency there has been a shift in dominance from short-lived resprouting species (mostly shrubs) towards longer-lived species and obligate seed-dispersers such as Austrocedrus chilensis and Nothofagus dombeyi. Due to limited seed dispersal of these tree species, the spatial configuration of remnant forest patches plays a key role in subsequent changes in landscape pattern.

Decreases in Fire Spread Probability with Forest Age Promotes Alternative Community States, Reduced Resilience to Climate Variability and Large Fire Regime Shifts

The generalization that plant communities increase in flammability as they age and invariably lead to resilient self-organized landscape mosaics is being increasingly challenged. Plant communities often exhibit rapidly saturating or even hump-shaped age-flammability trajectories and landscapes often display strong non-linear behaviors, abrupt shifts, and self-reinforcing alternative community states. This plethora of fire-landscape interactions calls for a more general model that considers alternative age-flammability rules. We simulated landscape dynamics assuming communities that (1) increase in flammability with age and (2) gain flammability up to a certain age followed by a slight and moderate loss to a constant value. Simulations were run under combinations of ignition frequency and interannual climatic variability. Age-increasing fire probability promoted high resilience to changes in ignition frequency and climatic variability whereas humpbacked-shaped age-flammability led to strong non-linear behaviors. Moderate (20%) reductions in mature compared to peak flammability produced the least resilient behaviors. The relatively non-flammable mature forest matrix intersected by young flammable patches is prone to break up and disintegrate with slight increases in ignition/climate variability causing large-scale shifts in the fire regime because large fires were able to sweep through the more continuous young/flammable landscape. Contrary to the dominant perception, fire suppression in landscapes with positive feedbacks may effectively reduce fire occurrence by allowing less flammable later stage communities composed of longer lived, obligate seeders to replace earlier stages of light demanding, often more flammable resprouters. Conversely, increases in anthropogenic ignitions, a common global trend of many forested regions may, in synergism with increased climate variability, induce abrupt shifts, and large-scale forest degradation.