Thomas Kontuly

A Theoretical Foundation for the Concept of Differential Urbanization

This paper develops a theoretical foundation for the notion of differential urbanization, in which groups of large, intermediate-sized, and small cities go through successive periods of fast and slow growth in a continuum of development that spans the evolution of urban systems in developed and less developed countries. A model depicting net migration patterns over time for major metropolitan, intermediate-sized, and small urban areas identifies six stages of differential urbanization. Data from three countries that span the development spectrum are used to test the accuracy of this model. A distinction between mainstream and substream migration flows provides an indicator of the concurrent concentration and deconcentration forces shaping urban systems. Counterurbanization represents the final phase in the first cycle of urban development, and is followed by a second cycle in which urbanization and spatial concentration dominate once again. At advanced levels of urbanization, the model can be used to characterize the degree of development within regions or subregions of a country. Also, precise definitions are suggested for the “clean break,” the end of urbanization, and the beginnings and ends of polarization reversal and counterurbanization.

Population Subgroups Responsible for New Urbanization and Suburbanization in Estonia

The results of this study indicate that during the 1990s urbanization was the dominant process in inter-regional migration, and residential suburbanization prevailed at the intra-metropolitan level.These tendencies are new and different from the trend existing during the Soviet era.These urbanization and suburbanization trends correspond closely with the expectations of the city life cycle and the differential urbanization models, indicating that patterns in Estonia during the 1990s follow those experienced by capitalist countries. The evaluation of urbanization and migration trends by age, education, gender and ethnicity, using 2000 census data, indicate that young people, females, migrants with a higher education, and Estonians accounted for the national urbanization trends. Also, in contrast to the Soviet era, Estonians participated fully in the urbanization trends of the 1990s. Suburbanization was the predominant direction of movement within metropolitan areas, and this trend was similar for all population subgroups. Yet people with a higher education and those in the family ages were most likely to suburbanize. Estonian migration trends for the total population were similar to many countries of the former Soviet Union, but different from East Central European countries.We believe that the main reason for such a contradiction stems from the compositional differences of the populations in these two groups of countries. Migration trends of population subgroups,however,seem to be similar across countries in transition. In addition, this study develops a Migration Concentration Index (MCI) to measure concentration and deconcentration processes in inter-regional migration.

Lessons Learned from Testing the Differential Urbanisation Model

This paper summarises the usefulness of the differential urbanisation model, to characterise regional urban development in terms of a temporal sequence of stages from urbanisation through polarisation reversal to counter–urbanisation, as revealed in nine empirical tests (Britain, Estonia, Finland, Western Germany, India, Italy, Russia, South Africa, and Turkey). First, results of the testing are summarised. Based on the results of these nine empirical tests, we attempt to answer the question ‘Did the differential urbanisation model fit reality?’ Also discussed are modifications to the model suggested during the course of empirical testing. Then directions for future testing and improvements to the model are suggested.

Culture as a determinant of reasons for migration

Abstract This article evaluates the importance of cultural factors in the destination selection process for migrants moving into and returning to the state of Utah. As the center of the Mormon cultural region, the state provides an excellent laboratory for testing the importance of cultural determinants of migration. Migration to Utah possesses a distinct cultural flavor. Although economic reasons for selecting Utah as a destination predominate, culture and family play an important secondary role. Mormons are more likely to report cultural and family reasons for moving to Utah, while non-Mormons are more likely to move for employment and education reasons. Distance from the state and time since arrival are the most important determinants of reasons for migration to Utah. A positive relationship exists between distance traveled and the likelihood that cultural or family reasons are given; individuals moving long distances are more likely to report cultural and family reasons. Recently arrived in-migrants are more likely to give cultural and family explanations for moving, while earlier in-migrants give employment and education reasons.

Estimating maquiladora hazardous waste generation on the U.S./Mexico border

Maquiladoras, manufacturing plants that primarily assemble foreign components for reexport, are located in concentrations along the northern frontier of the US/Mexico border. These plants process a wide variety of materials using modern industrial technologies within the context of developing world institutions and infrastructure. Hazardous waste generation by maquiladoras represents a critical environmental management issue because of the spatial concentration of these plants in border municipalities where the infrastructure for waste management is nonexistent or poor. These border municipalities contain rapidly increasing populations, which further stress their waste handling infrastructure capacities while exposing their populations to greater contaminant risks. Limited empirical knowledge exists concerning hazardous waste types and generation rates from maquiladorsas. There is no standard reporting method for waste generation or methodology for estimating generation rates at this time. This paper presents a method that can be used for the rapid assessment of hazardous waste generation. A first approximation of hazardous waste generation is produced for maquiladoras in the three municipalities of Nogales, Sonora, Mexicali, Baja California, and Cd. Juarez, Chihuahua, using the INVENT model developed by the World Bank. In addition, our intent is to evaluate the potential of the INVENT model for adaptation to the US/Mexico border industrial situation. The press of border industrial development, especially with the recent adoption of the NAFTA, make such assessments necessary as a basis for the environmental policy formulation and management needed in the immediate future.

Testing the Recession Theory as an Explanation for the Migration Turnaround

In this paper the so-called recession theory explanation for the decline of net migration to large metropolitan core areas of industrialized countries is tested with an econometric time-series model. In the explanation it is contended that the migration turnaround represents only a temporary fluctuation in the general trend of urban economic and demographic spatial concentration, caused by the business cycle downturns of the 1970s. Our results show that the migration turnaround cannot be attributed exclusively to these business cycle fluctuations. For many of the countries tested, the business cycle operated simultaneously with other factors suggested as explanations for the turnaround. We conclude that several explanations should be combined to build a theory of the migration turnaround.

Changing Western German Internal Migration Systems during the Second Half of the 1980s

The slow downward trend toward greater spatial deconcentration in West Germany during the time period 1970 to 1984 shifted back toward concentration from 1985 and through 1988. This ‘swing back’ occurred over only a three-year period. Regional labor-market changes appear to be the only factor able to cause such an abrupt shift to concentration, suggesting the importance of the regional restructuring hypothesis as an explanation. Changing internal migration patterns by two age-groups, 25–29 and 30–49, were responsible for the shift. A reduction of net in-migration to intermediate-sized regions with favorable structures as well as to small-sized rural regions with unfavorable structures, in the northern and central parts of the country, caused the shift. The concentration trend remained unaltered during 1989, in spite of large transfers of population out of eastern and into western Germany, because these exchanges favored the large-sized, densely populated, structurally weak regions in the Ruhr-Rhine and the Saarland.

Testing the regional restructuring hypothesis in western Germany

In this paper we test the importance of the regional restructuring hypothesis by investigating whether the internal migration flows in western Germany can be explained by employment changes, on the basis of data of out-migration of employed workers and employment in seventy-five regions over the period 1982–97 for each year separately. Starting from a conditional probability model for the unobserved individual migration decisions, we derive mathematically a dynamic version of the Poisson gravity model for the total out-migration per region per year. Estimating this model for each year separately, we find partial confirmation of the regional restructuring hypothesis.

GIS‐based emergency response planning in a Mexico–U.S. border community

Recent public interest in the environmental problems faced by communities in the Mexico/U.S. border region has led to increased efforts to assess technological hazards and emergency response capabilities. This research explores the use of geographic information systems (GIS) to evaluate emergency response capabilities relative to risk zones in Nogales, Sonora and Nogales, Arizona. The GIS allows capability assessment at a detailed level of spatial resolution, allowing planners to identify areas in the community with inadequate emergency-response facilities. Civilian evacuation scenarios, based on simulated hazardous material releases, identify network bottlenecks and other vulnerabilities. Finally, GIS allows easy visualization of these problems, thus aiding planners in identifying areas for improving emergency capabilities.