Thomas Kvalnes

On being the right size: increased body size is associated with reduced telomere length under natural conditions

Evolution of body size is likely to involve trade-offs between body size, growth rate and longevity. Within species, larger body size is associated with faster growth and ageing, and reduced longevity, but the cellular processes driving these relationships are poorly understood. One mechanism that might play a key role in determining optimal body size is the relationship between body size and telomere dynamics. However, we know little about how telomere length is affected when selection for larger size is imposed in natural populations. We report here on the relationship between structural body size and telomere length in wild house sparrows at the beginning and end of a selection regime for larger parent size that was imposed for 4 years in an isolated population of house sparrows. A negative relationship between fledgling size and telomere length was present at the start of the selection; this was extended when fledgling size increased under the selection regime, demonstrating a persistent covariance between structural size and telomere length. Changes in telomere dynamics, either as a correlated trait or a consequence of larger size, could reduce potential longevity and the consequent trade-offs could thereby play an important role in the evolution of optimal body size.

Estimating fluctuating selection in age‐structured populations

In age‐structured populations, viability and fecundity selection of varying strength may occur in different age classes. On the basis of an original idea by Fisher of weighting individuals by their reproductive value, we show that the combined effect of selection on traits at different ages acts through the individual reproductive value defined as the stochastic contribution of an individual to the total reproductive value of the population the following year. The selection differential is a weighted sum of age‐specific differentials that are the covariances between the phenotype and the age‐specific relative fitness defined by the individual reproductive value. This enables estimation of weak selection on a multivariate quantitative character in populations with no density regulation by combinations of age‐specific linear regressions of individual reproductive values on the traits. Demographic stochasticity produces random variation in fitness components in finite samples of individuals and affects the statistical inference of the temporal average directional selection as well as the magnitude of fluctuating selection. Uncertainties in parameter estimates and test power depend strongly on the demographic stochasticity. Large demographic variance results in large uncertainties in yearly estimates of selection that complicates detection of significant fluctuating selection. The method is illustrated by an analysis of age‐specific selection in house sparrows on a fitness‐related two‐dimensional morphological trait, tarsus length and body mass of fledglings.

Harvest-induced phenotypic selection in an island population of moose, Alces alces.

Empirical evidence strongly indicates that human exploitation has frequently led to rapid evolutionary changes in wild populations, yet the mechanisms involved are often poorly understood. Here, we applied a recently developed demographic framework for analyzing selection to data from a 20‐year study of a wild population of moose, Alces alces. In this population, a genetic pedigree has been established all the way back to founders. We demonstrate harvest‐induced directional selection for delayed birth dates in males and reduced body mass as calf in females. During the study period, birth date was delayed by 0.81 days per year for both sexes, whereas no significant changes occurred in calf body mass. Quantitative genetic analyses indicated that both traits harbored significant additive genetic variance. These results show that selective harvesting can induce strong selection that oppose natural selection. This may cause evolution of less favorable phenotypes that become maladaptive once harvesting ceases.

ESTIMATING PHENOTYPIC SELECTION IN AGE‐STRUCTURED POPULATIONS BY REMOVING TRANSIENT FLUCTUATIONS

An extension of the selection differential in the Robertson–Price equation for the mean phenotype in an age‐structured population is provided. Temporal changes in the mean phenotype caused by transient fluctuations in the age‐distribution and variation in mean phenotype among age classes, which can mistakenly be interpreted as selection, will disappear if reproductive value weighting is applied. Changes in any weighted mean phenotype in an age‐structured population may be decomposed into between‐ and within‐age class components. Using reproductive value weighting the between‐age class component becomes pure noise, generated by previous genetic drift or fluctuating selection. This component, which we call transient quasi‐selection, can therefore be omitted when estimating age‐specific selection on fecundity or viability within age classes. The final response can be computed at the time of selection, but can not be observed until lifetime reproduction is realized unless the heritability is one. The generality of these results is illustrated further by our derivation of the selection differential for the continuous time age‐structured model with general age‐dependent weights. A simple simulation example as well as estimation of selection components in a house sparrow population illustrates the applicability of the theory to analyze selection on the mean phenotype in fluctuating age‐structured populations.

Multiple aspects of plasticity in clutch size vary among populations of a globally distributed songbird

Plasticity in life-history characteristics can influence many ecological and evolutionary phenomena, including how invading organisms cope with novel conditions in new locations or how environmental change affects organisms in native locations. Variation in reaction norm attributes is a critical element to understanding plasticity in life history, yet we know relatively little about the ways in which reaction norms vary within and among populations. We amassed data on clutch size from marked females in eight populations of house sparrows (Passer domesticus) from North America and Europe. We exploited repeated measures of clutch size to assess both the extent of within-individual phenotypic plasticity and among-individual variation and to test alternative hypotheses about the underlying causes of reaction norm shape, particularly the decline in clutch size with date. Across all populations, females of this multibrooded species altered their clutch size with respect to date, attempt order, and the interaction of date and order, producing a reaction norm in multidimensional environmental space. The reaction norm fits that predicted by a model in which optimal clutch size is driven by a decline with date hatched in the ability of offspring to recruit. Our results do not fit those predicted for other proposed causes of a seasonal decline in clutch size. We also found significant differences between populations in response to date and the date by attempt order interaction. We tested the prediction that the relationship with date should be increasingly negative as breeding season becomes shorter but found steeper declines in clutch size with date in populations with longer seasons, contrary to the prediction. Populations also differed in the level of among-individual variation in reaction norm intercept, but we found no evidence of among-individual variation in reaction norm slope. We show that complex reaction norms in life-history characters exhibit within- and among-population variance. The nature of this variance is only partially consistent with current life-history theory and stimulates expansions of such theory to accommodate complexities in adaptive life history.

Sensitivity analysis of effective population size to demographic parameters in house sparrow populations

The ratio between the effective and the census population size, Ne/N , is an important measure of the long‐term viability and sustainability of a population. Understanding which demographic processes that affect Ne/N most will improve our understanding of how genetic drift and the probability of fixation of alleles is affected by demography. This knowledge may also be of vital importance in management of endangered populations and species. Here, we use data from 13 natural populations of house sparrow (Passer domesticus) in Norway to calculate the demographic parameters that determine Ne/N . Using the global variance‐based Sobol’ method for the sensitivity analyses, we found that Ne/N was most sensitive to demographic variance, especially among older individuals. Furthermore, the individual reproductive values (that determine the demographic variance) were most sensitive to variation in fecundity. Our results draw attention to the applicability of sensitivity analyses in population management and conservation. For population management aiming to reduce the loss of genetic variation, a sensitivity analysis may indicate the demographic parameters towards which resources should be focused. The result of such an analysis may depend on the life history and mating system of the population or species under consideration, because the vital rates and sex–age classes that Ne/N is most sensitive to may change accordingly.

Inferences of genetic architecture of bill morphology in house sparrow using a high-density SNP array point to a polygenic basis

Understanding the genetic architecture of quantitative traits can provide insights into the mechanisms driving phenotypic evolution. Bill morphology is an ecologically important and phenotypically variable trait, which is highly heritable and closely linked to individual fitness. Thus, bill morphology traits are suitable candidates for gene mapping analyses. Previous studies have revealed several genes that may influence bill morphology, but the similarity of gene and allele effects between species and populations is unknown. Here, we develop a custom 200K SNP array and use it to examine the genetic basis of bill morphology in 1857 house sparrow individuals from a large‐scale, island metapopulation off the coast of Northern Norway. We found high genomic heritabilities for bill depth and length, which were comparable with previous pedigree estimates. Candidate gene and genomewide association analyses yielded six significant loci, four of which have previously been associated with craniofacial development. Three of these loci are involved in bone morphogenic protein (BMP) signalling, suggesting a role for BMP genes in regulating bill morphology. However, these loci individually explain a small amount of variance. In combination with results from genome partitioning analyses, this indicates that bill morphology is a polygenic trait. Any studies of eco‐evolutionary processes in bill morphology are therefore dependent on methods that can accommodate polygenic inheritance of the phenotype and molecular‐scale evolution of genetic architecture.

Reversal of response to artificial selection on body size in a wild passerine

A general assumption in quantitative genetics is the existence of an intermediate phenotype with higher mean individual fitness in the average environment than more extreme phenotypes. Here, we investigate the evolvability and presence of such a phenotype in wild bird populations from an eleven‐year experiment with four years of artificial selection for long and short tarsus length, a proxy for body size. The experiment resulted in strong selection in the imposed directions. However, artificial selection was counteracted by reduced production of recruits in offspring of artificially selected parents. This resulted in weak natural selection against extreme trait values. Significant responses to artificial selection were observed at both the phenotypic and genetic level, followed by a significant return toward preexperimental means. During artificial selection, the annual observed phenotypic response closely followed the predicted response from quantitative genetic theory ( ryears = 0.96, rcohorts = 0.56). The rapid return to preexperimental means was induced by three interacting mechanisms: selection for an intermediate phenotype, immigration, and recombination between selected and unselected individuals. The results of this study demonstrates the evolvability of phenotypes and that selection may favor an intermediate phenotype in wild populations.

Controlling for p‐value inflation in allele frequency change in experimental evolution and artificial selection experiments

Experimental evolution studies can be used to explore genomic response to artificial and natural selection. In such studies, loci that display larger allele frequency change than expected by genetic drift alone are assumed to be directly or indirectly associated with traits under selection. However, such studies report surprisingly many loci under selection, suggesting that current tests for allele frequency change may be subject to P‐value inflation and hence be anticonservative. One factor known from genomewide association (GWA) studies to cause P‐value inflation is population stratification, such as relatedness among individuals. Here, we suggest that by treating presence of an individual in a population after selection as a binary response variable, existing GWA methods can be used to account for relatedness when estimating allele frequency change. We show that accounting for relatedness like this effectively reduces false‐positives in tests for allele frequency change in simulated data with varying levels of population structure. However, once relatedness has been accounted for, the power to detect causal loci under selection is low. Finally, we demonstrate the presence of P‐value inflation in allele frequency change in empirical data spanning multiple generations from an artificial selection experiment on tarsus length in two free‐living populations of house sparrow and correct for this using genomic control. Our results indicate that since allele frequencies in large parts of the genome may change when selection acts on a heritable trait, such selection is likely to have considerable and immediate consequences for the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of the affected populations.