Thomas L. Brewer

Nuclear energy forecasts and the international safeguards system

Abstract This paper assesses the impact of the increasing use of nuclear energy on the international safeguards system, and it identifies and assesses options for coping with the anticipated impact. A review of nuclear energy forecasts indicates a need for substantial increases in the financial and personnel resources of the safeguards system over the next decade. The requisite financial increases are probably within the limits of political feasibility, but the personnel needs may become problematic. There is also likely to be a continuing decline in confidence in the effectiveness of the system because of perceptions of inadequate resources and methods. There are several options that could reduce the projected technical and political pressures on the system: a postponement of plutonium recycle; improved materials measurement accuracies; immediate increases in the IAEA inspections staff. There are also options that would supplement the safeguards system and alleviate the pressures on it: multinational fuel cycle centers; a suppliers cartel-like arrangement; and an International Nuclear Materials Custodial Authority.

Personality and policy preference: Attitudes in the arms control and disarmament agency and the state department

This is a report of the results of a small project intended to determine what relationships there are between the personality trait of authoritarianism and variations in arms control‐related policy preferences held by bureaucrats in the United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency and the State Department. Several moderately strong correlations are found. A major implication of this finding is that as international relations scholarship assumes a greater “policy analysis” focus, it will be advisable to remember that policymaking is embedded in a psycho‐cultural milieu and that therefore the potential substantive and methodological contributions of psychology to policy studies should not be overlooked.