Thomas L. Marsh

Impacts of meat product recalls on consumer demand in the USA

The impact of meat product recall events on consumer demand (beef, pork, poultry, and other consumption goods) in the USA is tested empirically. Beef, pork, and poultry recall indices are constructed from both the Food Safety Inspection Services meat recall events and from newspaper reports over the period 1982–1998. Following previous product recall studies, recall indices are incorporated as shift variables in consumers’ demand functions. Estimating an absolute price version of the Rotterdam demand model, findings indicate that Food Safety Inspection Services meat recall events significantly impact demand, and newspaper reports do not. Moreover, although elasticities related to recall events are significant they are small in magnitude relative to price and income effects. Any favourable effects on the demands of meat substitutes for a recall are offset by a more general negative effect on meat demand. The general negative effect indicates a shift out of meat to non-meat consumption goods.

The revenue impacts of cross-border lottery shopping in the presence of spatial autocorrelation

Abstract In this paper we perform the first-ever analysis of cross-border lottery shopping. We directly estimate the lottery revenue gains and losses between a state and its neighbors using models that account for spatial dependence between cross-sectional units. This methodology has been rarely used in studies exploring regional public finance issues and is shown to improve upon standard OLS estimation of cross-sectional data. We find that cross-border lottery shopping can lead to significant reductions in lottery revenue. Given that 37 states rely on lotteries to fund certain state programs, our results have significant policy implications for state officials and lottery operators.

State Trading Enterprises in a Differentiated Product Environment: The Case of Global Malting Barley Markets

This study tested if the exclusive procuring and pricing policies of two state trading enterprises (STEs) in international malting barley markets could be used in a strategic trade context. The research provided four key findings. First, the global malting barley market operated in a quantity-setting oligopolistic structure during the study years. Second, both STEs and other exporting countries were in Cournot competition and thus made available strategic trade possibilities. Third, initial commodity payments were too high to generate a rent-shifting outcome. Fourth, product differentiation was confirmed, which may have dampened the desire/ability of STEs to pursue a rent-shifting objective.

Comparing heterogeneous consumption in U.S. and Japanese meat and fish demand

This article uses national, quarterly data to conduct an empirical analysis of pre-committed meat and fish demand by U.S. and Japanese households using the generalized almost ideal demand system (GAIDS). Pre-committed demand represents the component of demand that is insensitive to both income and price adjustments. U.S. consumers are found to hold significant positive pre-committed demand for beef and pork, while Japanese consumers appear to possess significant, positive pre-committed demand for beef and fish. This provides evidence to partially explain observed differences in Japanese and U.S. consumer reactions to nonprice and nonincome effects in beef, pork, poultry, and fish. In addition, based on in- and out-of-sample performance, the more general GAIDS is preferred to the almost ideal demand system (AIDS) for both the U.S. and Japanese demand systems. Results lend to improved demand modeling efforts and more complete understanding of true market forces at hand in meat and fish markets for these culturally diverse consumer groups.

Optimal Control of Vector-Virus-Plant Interactions: The Case of Potato Leafroll Virus Net Necrosis

This paper introduces a new specification to the economic pest management literature designed to optimally manage vector-virus-plant interactions for a single crop. The viral, insect-vector, and plant-host stocks are treated as renewable resources and conjunctively controlled in a discrete-time control framework subject to crop quality standards established in marketing contracts. The result is a conceptual integrated pest management model providing optimal insecticide scheduling and dynamic decision-making thresholds in a novel economic pest management context. Model results are compared qualitatively with those from previous specifications. The model is applied empirically to control potato leafroll virus net necrosis in commercial potato production.

Economic Assessment of FMDv Releases from the National Bio and Agro Defense Facility.

This study evaluates the economic consequences of hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease releases from the future National Bio and Agro Defense Facility in Manhattan, Kansas. Using an economic framework that estimates the impacts to agricultural firms and consumers, quantifies costs to non-agricultural activities in the epidemiologically impacted region, and assesses costs of response to the government, we find the distribution of economic impacts to be very significant. Furthermore, agricultural firms and consumers bear most of the impacts followed by the government and the regional non-agricultural firms.

Empirical properties of duality theory

This research examines selected empirical properties of duality relationships. Monte Carlo experiments indicate that Hessian matrices estimated from the normalised unrestricted profit, restricted profit and production functions yield conflicting results in the presence of measurement error and low relative price variability. In particular, small amounts of measurement error in quantity variables can translate into large errors in uncompensated estimates calculated via restricted and unrestricted profit and production functions. These results emphasise the need for high quality data when estimating empirical models in order to accurately determine dual relationships implied by economic theory.

GENERALIZED MAXIMUM ENTROPY ESTIMATION OF A FIRST ORDER SPATIAL AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL

We formulate generalized maximum entropy estimators for the general linear model and the censored regression model when there is first order spatial autoregression in the dependent variable. Monte Carlo experiments are provided to compare the performance of spatial entropy estimators relative to classical estimators. Finally, the estimators are applied to an illustrative model allocating agricultural disaster payments.

Probit With Spatial Correlation by Field Plot: Potato Leafroll Virus Net Necrosis in Potatoes

A probit model with spatial correlation is applied to data from a field experiment, which characterizes the impact of management variables on potato leafroll virus net necrosis in potato tubers. In the estimation, each field plot is assigned distinct spatial autoregressive coefficients for the dependent variable and the residual to be estimated simultaneously with coefficients of the management variables. Statistical findings demonstrate that spatial correlation exists and varies across field plots. We also find that ignoring spatial correlation by plot results in inconsistent parameter estimates and leads to management strategies promoting overuse of insecticides. In contrast, incorporating spatial correlation by plot into the probit model yields empirical estimates that are consistent with past research and promotes more efficient insecticide use from both an individual and environmental perspective.

Linking Human Health and Livestock Health: A “One-Health” Platform for Integrated Analysis of Human Health, Livestock Health, and Economic Welfare in Livestock Dependent Communities

Background For most rural households in sub-Saharan Africa, healthy livestock play a key role in averting the burden associated with zoonotic diseases, and in meeting household nutritional and socio-economic needs. However, there is limited understanding of the complex nutritional, socio-economic, and zoonotic pathways that link livestock health to human health and welfare. Here we describe a platform for integrated human health, animal health and economic welfare analysis designed to address this challenge. We provide baseline epidemiological data on disease syndromes in humans and the animals they keep, and provide examples of relationships between human health, animal health and household socio-economic status. Method We designed a study to obtain syndromic disease data in animals along with economic and behavioral information for 1500 rural households in Western Kenya already participating in a human syndromic disease surveillance study. Data collection started in February 2013, and each household is visited bi-weekly and data on four human syndromes (fever, jaundice, diarrhea and respiratory illness) and nine animal syndromes (death, respiratory, reproductive, musculoskeletal, nervous, urogenital, digestive, udder disorders, and skin disorders in cattle, sheep, goats and chickens) are collected. Additionally, data from a comprehensive socio-economic survey is collected every 3 months in each of the study households. Findings Data from the first year of study showed 93% of the households owned at least one form of livestock (55%, 19%, 41% and 88% own cattle, sheep, goats and chickens respectively). Digestive disorders, mainly diarrhea episodes, were the most common syndromes observed in cattle, goats and sheep, accounting for 56% of all livestock syndromes, followed by respiratory illnesses (18%). In humans, respiratory illnesses accounted for 54% of all illnesses reported, followed by acute febrile illnesses (40%) and diarrhea illnesses (5%). While controlling for household size, the incidence of human illness increased 1.31-fold for every 10 cases of animal illness or death observed (95% CI 1.16–1.49). Access and utilization of animal source foods such as milk and eggs were positively associated with the number of cattle and chickens owned by the household. Additionally, health care seeking was correlated with household incomes and wealth, which were in turn correlated with livestock herd size. Conclusion This study platform provides a unique longitudinal dataset that allows for the determination and quantification of linkages between human and animal health, including the impact of healthy animals on human disease averted, malnutrition, household educational attainment, and income levels.