Thomas Niebel

Health Care Expenditures and Longevity: Is There a Eubie Blake Effect?

Abstract It is still an open question whether increasing life expectancy as such causes higher health care expenditures (HCE) in a population. According to the “red herring” hypothesis, the positive correlation between age and HCE is exclusively due to the fact that mortality rises with age and a large share of HCE is caused by proximity to death. As a consequence, rising longevity—through falling mortality rates—may even reduce HCE. However, a weakness of many previous empirical studies is that they use cross-sectional evidence to make inferences on a development over time. In this paper, we analyse the impact of rising longevity on the trend of HCE over time by using data from a pseudo-panel of German sickness fund members over the period 1997–2009. Using (dynamic) panel data models, we find that age, mortality and 5-year survival rates each have a positive impact on per-capita HCE. Our explanation for the last finding is that physicians treat patients more aggressively if the results of these treatments pay off over a longer time span, which we call “Eubie Blake effect”. A simulation on the basis of an official population forecast for Germany is used to isolate the effect of demographic ageing on real per-capita HCE over the coming decades. We find that, while falling mortality rates as such lower HCE, this effect is more than compensated by an increase in remaining life expectancy so that the net effect of ageing on HCE over time is clearly positive.

The Contribution of Intangible Assets to Sectoral Productivity Growth in the EU

In this paper we report on new data on intangible investment at the level of 1-digit NACE industries of 10 EU countries. The data are constructed as a sectoral breakdown of the INTANInvest database, which contains measures of intangible investment at the level of the aggregate business sector. With the sectoral data we assess the contribution of intangibles to productivity growth based on growth accounting and econometric estimation of production functions. The growth accounting contribution of intangibles to labor productivity growth is generally highest in manufacturing and finance. The estimated output elasticity of intangibles lies between 0.1 and 0.2, considerably below values found in previous research using aggregate data.

ICT and Economic Growth – Comparing Developing, Emerging and Developed Countries

This paper analyzes the impact of information and communication technologies (ICT) on economic growth in developing, emerging and developed countries. It is based on a sample of 59 countries for the period 1995 to 2010. Various panel data regressions confirm the positive relationship between ICT capital and GDP growth. The regressions for the subsamples of developing, emerging and developed countries do not reveal statistically significant differences of the output elasticity of ICT between these three country groups.

The Economic Impacts of Broadband Internet: A Survey

Abstract We provide a structured overview of the quantitative research on the economic impacts of broadband internet. Differentiating between wireline and wireless technologies as well as broadband availability and broadband adoption, respectively, we review studies investigating the impacts on economic growth, employment and regional development as well as productivity and firm performance. Eventually, the survey does not only allow the identification of main research gaps but also provides useful information for policy makers on the significance and importance of communication networks for social welfare.

ICT and Growth: The Role of Rates of Return and Capital Prices

We revisit the widely discussed contribution of investment in ICT to economic growth, focusing on differences in productivity and quality of ICT across countries and time. In a growth accounting approach, we look at the way rates of return and rates of asset price decline measure these aspects. Conducting a sensitivity analysis with data from the EU KLEMS database for the years 1990–2007, we introduce a constant rate of return and a constant rate of ICT price decline. Both alternative measurements somewhat downplay the role investment played relative to growth in multifactor productivity in the U.K. and the U.S. during 1995–2000. Moreover, we show that more than half of the ICT contribution to labor productivity growth results from changes in capital quality and composition rather than from quantity.

The economic impacts of telecommunications networks and broadband internet: A survey

We provide a structured overview of the quantitative literature on the economic impacts of telecommunications networks and broadband internet. Differentiating between wireline and wireless technologies as well as broadband availability and broadband adoption, respectively, we review studies investigating the impacts on economic growth, employment and regional development as well as productivity and firm performance. Eventually, the survey does not only allow the identification of main research gaps but also provides useful information for policy makers on the significance and importance of communication networks for social welfare.

BIG data - BIG gains? Empirical evidence on the link between big data analytics and innovation

This paper analyzes the relationship between firms’ use of big data analytics and their innovative performance in terms of product innovations. Since big data technologies provide new data information practices, they create novel decision-making possibilities, which are widely believed to support firms’ innovation process. Applying German firm-level data within a knowledge production function framework we find suggestive evidence that big data analytics is a relevant determinant for the likelihood of a firm becoming a product innovator as well as for the market success of product innovations. These results hold for the manufacturing as well as for the service sector but are contingent on firms’ investment in IT-specific skills. Subsequent analyses suggest that firms in the manufacturing and service sector rely on different data sources and data-related firm practices in order to reap the benefits of big data. Overall, the results support the view that big data analytics have the potential to enable innovation.

Productivity of ICT and non-ICT capital: The role of rates of return and capital prices

We investigate the role rates of return and rates of asset price decline play in explaining sources of productivity growth in the context of a growth accounting approach. Our analysis is based on data from the EU KLEMS database for seven countries in the period of 1990 - 2007. We introduce a constant rate of return to capital and a constant rate of ICT price decline across sectors, countries and time. The main result of this sensitivity analysis is that both alternative measurements somewhat downplay the role investment played relative to growth in multi-factor productivity in the UK and the US during 1995 - 2000. Moreover, we show that more than half of the ICT contribution to labor productivity growth results from growth in capital quality and composition rather than quantity.