Thomas P. Albright

Land-Cover Change and Avian Diversity in the Conterminous United States

Changes in land use and land cover have affected and will continue to affect biological diversity worldwide. Yet, understanding the spatially extensive effects of land-cover change has been challenging because data that are consistent over space and time are lacking. We used the U.S. National Land Cover Dataset Land Cover Change Retrofit Product and North American Breeding Bird Survey data to examine land-cover change and its associations with diversity of birds with principally terrestrial life cycles (landbirds) in the conterminous United States. We used mixed-effects models and model selection to rank associations by ecoregion. Land cover in 3.22% of the area considered in our analyses changed from 1992 to 2001, and changes in species richness and abundance of birds were strongly associated with land-cover changes. Changes in species richness and abundance were primarily associated with changes in nondominant types of land cover, yet in many ecoregions different types of land cover were associated with species richness than were associated with abundance. Conversion of natural land cover to anthropogenic land cover was more strongly associated with changes in bird species richness and abundance than persistence of natural land cover in nearly all ecoregions and different covariates were most strongly associated with species richness than with abundance in 11 of 17 ecoregions. Loss of grassland and shrubland affected bird species richness and abundance in forested ecoregions. Loss of wetland was associated with bird abundance in forested ecoregions. Our findings highlight the value of understanding changes in nondominant land cover types and their association with bird diversity in the United States.

Combined effects of heat waves and droughts on avian communities across the conterminous United States

Increasing surface temperatures and climatic variability associated with global climate change are expected to produce more frequent and intense heat waves and droughts in many parts of the world. Our goal was to elucidate the fundamental, but poorly understood, effects of these extreme weather events on avian communities across the conterminous United States. Specifically, we explored: (1) the effects of timing and duration of heat and drought events, (2) the effects of jointly occurring drought and heat waves relative to these events occurring in isolation, and (3) how effects vary among functional groups related to nest location and migratory habit, and among ecoregions with differing precipitation and temperature regimes. Using data from remote sensing, meteorological stations, and the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we used mixed effects models to quantify responses of overall and functional group abundance to heat waves and droughts (occurring alone or in concert) at two key periods in the annual cycle of birds: breeding and post-fledging. We also compared responses among species with different migratory and nesting characteristics, and among 17 ecoregions of the conterminous United States. We found large changes in avian abundances related to 100-year extreme weather events occurring in both breeding and post-fledging periods, but little support for an interaction among time periods. We also found that jointly-, rather than individually-occurring heat waves and droughts were both more common and more predictive of abundance changes. Declining abundance was the only significant response to post-fledging events, while responses to breeding period events were larger but could be positive or negative. Negative responses were especially frequent in the western U.S., and among ground-nesting birds and Neotropical migrants, with the largest single-season declines (36%) occurring among ground-nesting birds in the desert Southwest. These results indicate the importance of functional traits, timing, and geography in determining avian responses to weather extremes. Because dispersal to other regions appears to be an important avian response, it may be essential to maintain habitat refugia in a more climatically variable future.

Mapping evaporative water loss in desert passerines reveals an expanding threat of lethal dehydration

Significance Using measured rates of evaporative water loss, hourly gridded weather data, a 4 °C warming scenario, and physiological models, we show that songbirds in the deserts of the southwestern United States are increasingly susceptible to death from dehydration on hot days. Smaller birds lose water at a proportionally higher rate, and are hence more vulnerable than larger birds to lethal dehydration arising from greater evaporative cooling demands. Our analysis indicates that, by the end of the present century, exposure to potentially lethal conditions could at least quadruple for smaller species. The increasing extent, frequency, and intensity of dehydrating conditions under a warming climate may alter daily activity patterns, geographic range limits, and the conservation status of affected birds. Extreme high environmental temperatures produce a variety of consequences for wildlife, including mass die-offs. Heat waves are increasing in frequency, intensity, and extent, and are projected to increase further under climate change. However, the spatial and temporal dynamics of die-off risk are poorly understood. Here, we examine the effects of heat waves on evaporative water loss (EWL) and survival in five desert passerine birds across the southwestern United States using a combination of physiological data, mechanistically informed models, and hourly geospatial temperature data. We ask how rates of EWL vary with temperature across species; how frequently, over what areas, and how rapidly lethal dehydration occurs; how EWL and die-off risk vary with body mass; and how die-off risk is affected by climate warming. We find that smaller-bodied passerines are subject to higher rates of mass-specific EWL than larger-bodied counterparts and thus encounter potentially lethal conditions much more frequently, over shorter daily intervals, and over larger geographic areas. Warming by 4 °C greatly expands the extent, frequency, and intensity of dehydration risk, and introduces new threats for larger passerine birds, particularly those with limited geographic ranges. Our models reveal that increasing air temperatures and heat wave occurrence will potentially have important impacts on the water balance, daily activity, and geographic distribution of arid-zone birds. Impacts may be exacerbated by chronic effects and interactions with other environmental changes. This work underscores the importance of acute risks of high temperatures, particularly for small-bodied species, and suggests conservation of thermal refugia and water sources.

The ecological niche and reciprocal prediction of the disjunct distribution of an invasive species: the example of Ailanthus altissima

Knowledge of the ecological niches of invasive species in native and introduced ranges can inform management as well as ecological and evolutionary theory. Here, we identified and compared factors associated with the distribution of an invasive tree, Ailanthus altissima, in both its native Chinese and introduced US ranges and predicted potential US distribution. For both ranges separately, we selected suites of the most parsimonious logistic regression models of occurrence based on environmental variables and evaluated these against independent data. We then incorporated information from both ranges in a simple Bayesian model to predict the potential US distribution. Occurrence of A. altissima in both ranges exhibited a unimodal response to temperature variables. In China, occurrence had negative relationships with topographic wetness and forest cover and positive relationships with precipitation and agricultural and urban land use. In the US, A. altissima was associated with intermediate levels of forest cover and precipitation. The Bayesian model identified 58–80% of 10-arc minute grid cells in the conterminous US as containing suitable areas for A. altissima. The best model developed from Chinese data applied to the US matched most areas of observed occurrence but under-predicted occurrence in lower probability areas. This discrepancy is suggestive of a broadening of the ecological niche of A. altissima and may be due to such factors as less intense competition, increased potency of allelopathy, and novel genotypes formed from multiple introductions. The Bayesian model suggests that A. altissima has the potential to substantially expand its distribution in the US.

Conservation of Forest Birds: Evidence of a Shifting Baseline in Community Structure

Background Quantifying changes in forest bird diversity is an essential task for developing effective conservation actions. When subtle changes in diversity accumulate over time, annual comparisons may offer an incomplete perspective of changes in diversity. In this case, progressive change, the comparison of changes in diversity from a baseline condition, may offer greater insight because changes in diversity are assessed over longer periods of times. Our objectives were to determine how forest bird diversity has changed over time and whether those changes were associated with forest disturbance. Methodology/Principal Findings We used North American Breeding Bird Survey data, a time series of Landsat images classified with respect to land cover change, and mixed-effects models to associate changes in forest bird community structure with forest disturbance, latitude, and longitude in the conterminous United States for the years 1985 to 2006. We document a significant divergence from the baseline structure for all birds of similar migratory habit and nest location, and all forest birds as a group from 1985 to 2006. Unexpectedly, decreases in progressive similarity resulted from small changes in richness (<1 species per route for the 22-year study period) and modest losses in abundance (−28.7–−10.2 individuals per route) that varied by migratory habit and nest location. Forest disturbance increased progressive similarity for Neotropical migrants, permanent residents, ground nesting, and cavity nesting species. We also documented highest progressive similarity in the eastern United States. Conclusions/Significance Contemporary forest bird community structure is changing rapidly over a relatively short period of time (e.g., ∼22 years). Forest disturbance and forest regeneration are primary factors associated with contemporary forest bird community structure, longitude and latitude are secondary factors, and forest loss is a tertiary factor. Importantly, these findings suggest some regions of the United States may already fall below the habitat amount threshold where fragmentation effects become important predictors of forest bird community structure.

Evaluation of downscaled, gridded climate data for the conterminous United States

Weather and climate affect many ecological processes, making spatially continuous yet fine-resolution weather data desirable for ecological research and predictions. Numerous downscaled weather data sets exist, but little attempt has been made to evaluate them systematically. Here we address this shortcoming by focusing on four major questions: (1) How accurate are downscaled, gridded climate data sets in terms of temperature and precipitation estimates? (2) Are there significant regional differences in accuracy among data sets? (3) How accurate are their mean values compared with extremes? (4) Does their accuracy depend on spatial resolution? We compared eight widely used downscaled data sets that provide gridded daily weather data for recent decades across the United States. We found considerable differences among data sets and between downscaled and weather station data. Temperature is represented more accurately than precipitation, and climate averages are more accurate than weather extremes. The data set exhibiting the best agreement with station data varies among ecoregions. Surprisingly, the accuracy of the data sets does not depend on spatial resolution. Although some inherent differences among data sets and weather station data are to be expected, our findings highlight how much different interpolation methods affect downscaled weather data, even for local comparisons with nearby weather stations located inside a grid cell. More broadly, our results highlight the need for careful consideration among different available data sets in terms of which variables they describe best, where they perform best, and their resolution, when selecting a downscaled weather data set for a given ecological application.

Recent spatiotemporal patterns in temperature extremes across conterminous United States

With a warming climate, understanding the physical dynamics of hot and cold extreme events has taken on increased importance for public health, infrastructure, ecosystems, food security, and other domains. Here we use a high-resolution spatial and temporal seamless gridded land surface forcing data set to provide an assessment of recent spatiotemporal patterns in temperature extremes over the conterminous United States (CONUS). We asked the following: (1) How are temperature extremes changing across the different regions of CONUS? (2) How do changes in extremes vary on seasonal, annual, and decadal scales? (3) How do changes in extremes relate to changes in mean conditions? And (4) do extremes relate to major modes of ocean-atmosphere variability? We derive a subset of the CLIMDEX extreme indices from the North American Land Data Assimilation phase 2 forcing data set. While there were warming trends in all indices, daytime temperature extremes warmed more than nighttime. Spring warming was the strongest and most extensive across CONUS, and summer experienced the strongest and most extensive decrease in cold extremes. Increase in winter warm extremes appeared weakening relative to the rapid 1950–1990 increase found in previous studies. The Northeast and Midwest experienced the most warming, while the Northwest and North Great Plains saw the least. We found changes in average temperatures were more associated with changes in cold extremes than warm extremes. Since 2006 there have been 5 years when more than 5% of the U.S. experienced at least 90 warm days, something not observed in the previous 25 years. The unusually warm first decade of 21st century could have been associated with the warm conditions of near El Nino–Southern Oscillation-neutral phase of the decade, and possibly amplified by anthropogenic forcing. The widespread, lengthy, and severe extreme hot events documented here during the past three decades underscore the need to implement thoughtful adaptation plans in the very near future, to the growing evidence of increasing warm extremes across United States.

Natural and human dimensions of a quasi-wild species:the case of kudzu

The human dimensions of biotic invasion are generally poorly understood, even among the most familiar invasive species. Kudzu (Pueraria montana (Lour.) Merr.) is a prominent invasive plant and an example of quasi-wild species, which has experienced repeated introduction, cultivation, and escape back to the wild. Here, we review a large body of primary scientific and historic records spanning thousands of years to characterize the complex relationships among kudzu, its natural enemies, and humans, and provide a synthesis and conceptual model relevant to the ecology and management of quasi-wild invasive species. We documented over 350, mostly insect, natural enemy species and their impacts on kudzu in its native East Asian range. These natural enemies play a minor role in limiting kudzu in its native range, rarely generating severe impacts on populations of wild kudzu. We identified a number of significant influences of humans including dispersal, diverse cultural selection, and facilitation through disturbances, which catalyzed the expansion and exuberance of kudzu. On the other hand, harvest by humans appears to be the major control mechanism in its native areas. Humans thus have a complex relationship with kudzu. They have acted as both friend and foe, affecting the distribution and abundance of kudzu in ways that vary across its range and over time. Our conceptual model of kudzu emphasizes the importance of multiple human dimensions in shaping the biogeography of a species and illustrates how kudzu and other quasi-wild species are more likely to be successful invaders.

Classification of surface types using SIR-C/X-SAR, Mount Everest Area, Tibet

Imaging radar is a promising tool for mapping snow and ice cover in alpine regions. It combines a high-resolution, day or night, all-weather imaging capability with sensitivity to hydrologic and climatic snow and ice parameters. We use the spaceborne imaging radar-C/X-band synthetic aperture radar (SIR-C/X-SAR) to map snow and glacial ice on the rugged north slope of Mount Everest. From interferometrically derived digital elevation data, we compute the terrain calibration factor and cosine of the local illumination angle. We then process and terrain-correct radar data sets acquired on April 16, 1994. In addition to the spectral data, we include surface slope to improve discrimination among several surface types. These data sets are then used in a decision tree to generate an image classification. This method is successful in identifying and mapping scree/talus, dry snow, dry snow-covered glacier, wet snow-covered glacier, and rock-covered glacier, as corroborated by comparison with existing surface cover maps and other ancillary information. Application of the classification scheme to data acquired on October 7 of the same year yields accurate results for most surface types but underreports the extent of dry snow cover.

Predicting Microstegium vimineum invasion in natural plant communities of the southern Blue Ridge Mountains, USA

Shade-tolerant non-native invasive plant species may make deep incursions into natural plant communities, but detecting such species is challenging because occurrences are often sparse. We developed Bayesian models of the distribution of Microstegium vimineum in natural plant communities of the southern Blue Ridge Mountains, USA to address three objectives: (1) to assess local and landscape factors that influence the probability of presence of M. vimineum; (2) to quantify the spatial covariance error structure in occurrence that was not accounted for by the environmental variables; and (3) to synthesize our results with previous findings to make inference on the spatial attributes of the invasion process. Natural plant communities surrounded by areas with high human activity and low forest cover were at highest risk of M. vimineum invasion. The probability of M. vimineum presence also increased with increasing native species richness and soil pH, and decreasing basal area of ericaceous shrubs. After accounting for environmental covariates, evaluation of the spatial covariance error structure revealed that M. vimineum is invading the landscape by a hierarchical process. Infrequent long-distance dispersal events result in new nascent sub-populations that then spread via intermediate- and short-distance dispersal, resulting in 3-km spatial aggregation pattern of sub-populations. Containment or minimisation of its impact on native plant communities will be contingent on understanding how M. vimineum can be prevented from colonizing new suitable habitats. The hierarchical invasion process proposed here provides a framework to organise and focus research and management efforts.