Thomas R. Barton

Modernization and Teenage Sexual Activity in Zambia A Multinomial Logit Model

One of the major social problems in sub-Saharan Africa today is teenage pregnancy. In this article, the authors test a model based on modernization theories that attempt to explain the widespread prevalence of teenage sexual activity in African countries such as Zambia. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect data. Students were randomly selected from seven secondary schools in two Zambian cities, Lusaka and Kitwe. There were 527 adolescent respondents in the sample. Results of this study do not support modernization theories of teen sexual activity. In addition, the authors find that traditional institutions such as initiation ceremonies continue to influence sexual activity levels. These findings raise interesting questions for future investigations.

An Evaluation of a Prototype JOBS Program Using an Event History Analysis of AFDC Cases.

In January 1987, Kenosha County, Wisconsin implemented its work experience and job training program, a prototype job opportunities and basic skills training (JOBS) program. Kenoshas program requires participation, has broad coverage, and is relatively expensive. This article reports findings on the impacts the program has on aid to families with dependent children (AFDC) spells. The evaluation used administrative welfare data and an event history analysis. Findings suggest that Kenoshas program has no affect on AFDC-Basic spell lengths, has a positive impact on AFDC-Basic cases headed by never-married black teenagers, and has a negative impact on A FDC-Unemployed Parent cases.

Sexual activity among junior secondary school girls in Zambia

This paper proposes a causal model of sexual activity among a randomly selected sample of 305 Junio secondary school girls in Zambia. The results indicate that liberal sexual attitudes influence romantic involvement with boys. Emotional involvement is likely to result in sexual activity. Traditional courtship forms are slowly being replaced by modern patterns of courtship behaviour. Policy and programme implications are discussed.

Familial and Social Dimensions of Welfare Receipt

Abstract In this study we categorize welfare duration determinants into those associated with family traits and the social macro environment outside the family. Monthly AFDC-Basic data for Texas from mid-1989 through April 1993 are analyzed using an event history analysis to examine the length of time families receive AFDC benefits and to estimate the effects of the two latent traits that influence the pace of quitting welfare. Results suggest a need for reformulating welfare policies to address the disadvantages stemming from the social structural context of poverty such as urban residence and race membership.

Program Evaluation Using Event History Analysis

Event history analysis examines events, the duration of time between events, the likelihood of events occurring, and the pacing of events. Programs with such diverse goals as obtaining employment, abstaining from drugs, reducing reincarceration, or increasing the likelihood of graduating from high school can be evaluated using an event history analysis. This article presents an overview of event history analysis, explains how event history analysis can be used in program evaluation, and describes how it was used to study a welfare- to-work program.