Thomas Spoorenberg

World population stabilization unlikely this century.

The United Nations (UN) recently released population projections based on data until 2012 and a Bayesian probabilistic methodology. Analysis of these data reveals that, contrary to previous literature, the world population is unlikely to stop growing this century. There is an 80% probability that world population, now 7.2 billion people, will increase to between 9.6 billion and 12.3 billion in 2100. This uncertainty is much smaller than the range from the traditional UN high and low variants. Much of the increase is expected to happen in Africa, in part due to higher fertility rates and a recent slowdown in the pace of fertility decline. Also, the ratio of working-age people to older people is likely to decline substantially in all countries, even those that currently have young populations. The 21st century is unlikely to see the end of global population growth. [Also see Perspective by Smeeding] Global population growth continuing The United Nations released new population projections for all countries in July 2014. Gerland et al. analyzed the data and describe the probabilistic population projections for the entire world as well as individual regions and countries (see the Perspective by Smeeding). World population is likely to continue growing for the rest of the century, with at least a 3.5-fold increase in the population of Africa. Furthermore, the ratio of working-age people to older people is almost certain to decline substantially in all countries, not just currently developed ones. Science, this issue p. 234; see also p. 163

The impact of the political and economic transition on fertility and family formation in Mongolia. A synthetic parity progression ratios analysis.

Mongolia has never been a member of the USSR, but the collapse of the Soviet Union deeply affected this country. While a growing body of literature documents the consequences of this collapse on fertility and family formation behaviour for the former socialist countries in Central and Eastern Europe, the Baltic countries, Russia and Ukraine, and more recently, countries in Central Asia, Mongolia received only limited attention. This paper aims to fill this gap. As a consequence of the transition to democracy and a market economy, Mongolia experienced an impressive fertility reduction; total fertility fell from 4.6 children per woman to 2.5 between 1989 and 1993. Through the application of the synthetic parity progression ratios method to the 1998 Reproductive Health Survey data, this study analyses the reproductive responses of Mongolian couples in a context of deep social and economic changes. Paralleling other ex-socialist countries, it is shown that the transition affected the reproductive behaviour in Mongolia. Marriage declined discernibly for Mongolian women, but was shortly followed by a first birth. The changes took place at parities higher than two. These results suggest that people adjust their reproductive behaviour according to strongly-rooted cultural values that balance the standard economic motivations.

FERTILITY CHANGES IN CENTRAL ASIA SINCE 1980

Limited studies document the fertility changes in Central Asia. Using survey and official data, this study describes the fertility changes since 1980 in Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan. I first consider the swift decline in fertility in the 1980s and 1990s through the analysis of Synthetic Parity Progression Ratios (SPPRs). SPPRs show that women still have at least one child despite economic difficulties and that the end of communism affected more the transition to higher-order births. These results are however influenced by economic and demographic factors specific to each country. I investigate then the fertility upturn that is observed since the early 2000s—an issue neglected so far by demographers. Results from the analysis of official and household data show that in each country, the recent fertility increase resulted from the increase of distinct birth orders and was concentrated in specific ethnic groups.

Regional Fertility Transition in India: An Analysis Using Synthetic Parity Progression Ratios

This paper examines various aspects of regional fertility transition in India. Using nationally representative data from three rounds of National Family Health Surveys (NFHSs) conducted in India, we compare and contrast fertility patterns in six regions of India for the period between 1977 and 2004. To study the fertility patterns, we use synthetic parity progression ratios which, besides providing estimates for average lifetime parity, also allow for decomposition of lifetime parity by birth order. The paper also examines changes in birth intervals over time and across the six regions. The results confirm the persistence of regional differences in fertility. However, in all regions fertility is declining and it is possible that fertility rates will converge in the near future. The main reason for fertility decline in all regions is the reduction in third- and higher-order births. There has not been any significant decline in first and second births, even in regions with low fertility. In addition to the discussion of the substantive results, the paper also comments on the quality of NFHS data.

Explaining recent fertility increase in Central Asia

After a swift decline during the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union, period fertility rates have either been stagnating or increasing in all countries of Central Asia. In this paper, I investigate the role of data artifacts, population composition effect, economic context and shifting tempo effect in explaining fertility changes in Central Asia. The analysis is primarily based on comparison of fertility data from the vital registration system with estimates from other data sources. The results show that the recent changes to be real and not a result of data artifact. The most plausible explanations are to be found in the three other non-exclusive factors (population composition effect, economic context and shifting tempo effect) that contributed jointly and simultaneously to push up the period fertility rates in the region.

THE DEMOGRAPHIC WINDOW, DEVELOPMENT, AND POPULATION POLICY IMPLICATIONS IN MONGOLIA

This article presents the demographic window in Mongolia and discusses the implications of different population policies for demographic development. Based on four different fertility scenarios, the development of future working age population (WAP), school-age population (SAP), and elderly population are examined, focusing on the economic and social challenges for Mongolia. It is argued that population policy could play an important role if policy-makers want to prolong the demographic window and the benefits of better demographic conditions to sustain economic and social development. This issue is of importance since the majority of developing countries are currently experiencing fertility decline which is opening their demographic window.

Provisional results of the 2014 census of Myanmar: The surprise that wasn't

From 30 March to 10 April 2014, Myanmar successfully conducted its 2014 Population and Housing Census. Long-awaited, the operation has been carried out more than 30 years after the last population census on 1–5 April 1983. The 2014 census should provide valuable data for planning the social and economic development efforts of the country and furthering the reform process. The enumeration was a success in most areas of the country (with the exception of Northern Rakhine, Kachin and Kayin States where some areas were either partially or not covered in the enumeration) and met international standards (Republic of the Union of Myanmar, 2014). Furthermore, the response to and the participation of the population in the census were largely positive and enthusiastic, contributing to make the 2014 census a success (Republic of the Union of Myanmar, 2014). On 30 August 2014, the publication of the provisional results lifted a veil on the total population in the country. Up to that date, the official figure sets the national population at more than 60 million. According to one of the latest publicly available statistics of the Department of Population, Ministry of Immigration and Population, the population of Myanmar was estimated to be 60.98 million on 1 October 2012 (Department of Population, n.d.). The provisional results revealed a population of 51.4 million people in the country, including an estimated population of 1.2 million for the areas that could not be properly enumerated. These figures suggest very high census coverage with almost 98 per cent of the population counted during the census (Department of Population, 2014a, 2014b). The male total population is estimated at 24.8 million, whereas the female population reaches 26.7 million, indicating a shortage of men in the country. The provisional results released also indicated that the number of households reaches 10.9 million for an average household size of 4.4 persons (Department of Population, 2014a, 2014b).

Changes in the proximate determinants of fertility decline in post-socialist Mongolia.

Mongolian fertility decline has received only limited analysis in the demographic literature. Using the 2003 Reproductive Health Survey of Mongolia the classical proximate determinants of fertility framework proposed by Bongaarts is applied here in order to analyse which factors shape period fertility. The results indicate that the fertility-inhibiting effect of contraception contributed to reduce period fertility by 54.2% from its theoretical maximum, while induced abortion accounted for only 6.1% of the reduction in fertility. Compared with previous studies made in the early 1990s, these results show that important changes in the control of reproduction took place in Mongolia during the fertility transition. In order to assess the changes implied by the transition to democracy and market economy, the proximate determinants of fertility are estimated for the year 1994. The results show that the importance of induced abortion in the determination of fertility level has reduced and that the use of modern contraception has increased progressively and contributed most in determining fertility level in 2003.

AFTER FERTILITY’S NADIR? ETHNIC DIFFERENTIALS IN PARITY-SPECIFIC BEHAVIOURS IN KYRGYZSTAN

After a swift decline in the 1990s, the countries of Central Asia have experienced significant fertility increases over the last 15 years. These fertility upturns have remained off the radar of demographers. This study examines the recent fertility increase in Kyrgyzstan, focusing on fertility development by parity and among the main ethnic groups, in order to go beyond classic fertility indicators and national averages. Using a sample from the 2009 Census micro-dataset, sibling progression ratios were computed using information on the relationships and dates of birth of children under the age of 15. The results allow an analysis of the fertility increase by identifying the contribution of parity and ethnic group. It was found that the fertility increase in Kyrgyzstan has been experienced across the main ethnic groups, but their respective share in the population of the country has resulted in distinct contributions to the increase. Between 2001 and 2009, 82.4% of the fertility increase was due to an increase in the fertility of Kyrgyz women. In comparison, Uzbek and Russian women contributed 10.2% and 7.4%, respectively. By accounting for the parity component and ethnic factor, this study adds important disaggregated information, not only on family-building behaviours, but also on the social dimension, which is of prime importance for a better understanding of the demography of Central Asia. The study highlights important information on family-building behaviours, which are essential for the formulation of appropriate and more effective social policies aimed at sustaining and/or increasing fertility.

Sixty years of change in Tibetan fertility: An assessment

Existing knowledge of Tibetan historical population development is mostly based on ‘best-guess’ estimates and is heavily politicized. Using census data, I reconstruct the development of Tibetan fertility in China since the 1940s, with the objective of providing an independent assessment that can be used as benchmark for future studies and debates on Tibetan demography. Following major social and economic transformations starting in the 1950s, Tibetan fertility unexpectedly increased from the late 1950s to the late 1960s. As noted in several existing studies, Tibetan fertility in China then declined swiftly from the early 1980s onwards and has now reached values close to replacement level. Focusing on the 1950–70 period, I examine factors that contributed to shaping the Tibetan fertility increase in more detail. This confirms that changes in nuptiality and disease-related infertility both played a role in pushing up fertility rates among Tibetan women in China.