Thure Filskov Overvad

Adiposity, hormone replacement therapy use and breast cancer risk by age and hormone receptor status : a large prospective cohort study

IntroductionAssociations of hormone-receptor positive breast cancer with excess adiposity are reasonably well characterized; however, uncertainty remains regarding the association of body mass index (BMI) with hormone-receptor negative malignancies, and possible interactions by hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use.MethodsWithin the European EPIC cohort, Cox proportional hazards models were used to describe the relationship of BMI, waist and hip circumferences with risk of estrogen-receptor (ER) negative and progesterone-receptor (PR) negative (n = 1,021) and ER+PR+ (n = 3,586) breast tumors within five-year age bands. Among postmenopausal women, the joint effects of BMI and HRT use were analyzed.ResultsFor risk of ER-PR- tumors, there was no association of BMI across the age bands. However, when analyses were restricted to postmenopausal HRT never users, a positive risk association with BMI (third versus first tertile HR = 1.47 (1.01 to 2.15)) was observed. BMI was inversely associated with ER+PR+ tumors among women aged ≤49 years (per 5 kg/m2 increase, HR = 0.79 (95%CI 0.68 to 0.91)), and positively associated with risk among women ≥65 years (HR = 1.25 (1.16 to 1.34)). Adjusting for BMI, waist and hip circumferences showed no further associations with risks of breast cancer subtypes. Current use of HRT was significantly associated with an increased risk of receptor-negative (HRT current use compared to HRT never use HR: 1.30 (1.05 to 1.62)) and positive tumors (HR: 1.74 (1.56 to 1.95)), although this risk increase was weaker for ER-PR- disease (Phet = 0.035). The association of HRT was significantly stronger in the leaner women (BMI ≤22.5 kg/m2) than for more overweight women (BMI ≥25.9 kg/m2) for, both, ER-PR- (HR: 1.74 (1.15 to 2.63)) and ER+PR+ (HR: 2.33 (1.84 to 2.92)) breast cancer and was not restricted to any particular HRT regime.ConclusionsAn elevated BMI may be positively associated with risk of ER-PR- tumors among postmenopausal women who never used HRT. Furthermore, postmenopausal HRT users were at an increased risk of ER-PR- as well as ER+PR+ tumors, especially among leaner women. For hormone-receptor positive tumors, but not for hormone-receptor negative tumors, our study confirms an inverse association of risk with BMI among young women of premenopausal age. Our data provide evidence for a possible role of sex hormones in the etiology of hormone-receptor negative tumors.

Risk of Stroke or Systemic Embolism in Atrial Fibrillation Patients Treated With Warfarin A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Background and Purpose— Although oral anticoagulants (OACs) are highly effective in reducing stroke risk in atrial fibrillation, some patients still sustain stroke despite being on an OAC. Our aim was to identify the risk factors that contribute to stroke risk in atrial fibrillation, although patients were taking OACs in a clinical trial setting. Methods— We identified contemporary clinical trials that investigated OACs in patients with atrial fibrillation. Event rates per year from each study and pooled event rates and relative risks, all with a 95% confidence interval, were calculated. Statistical heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 test. Results— Six trials were included in the meta-analysis, with a total of 58 883 patients randomized. Characteristics associated with a higher relative risk of stroke while on an OAC included age ≥75 years (relative risk, 1.46 [95% confidence interval, 1.25–1.69]), female sex (1.30 [1.15–1.49]), previous stroke/transient ischemic attack (1.85 [1.32–2.60]), vitamin K-antagonist naive status (for vitamin K antagonist experienced, 0.85 [0.74–0.97]), moderate and severe renal impairment (1.54 [1.30–1.81] and 2.22 [1.85–2.66], respectively, compared with normal renal function), previous aspirin use (1.19 [1.04–1.37]), Asian race (1.70 [1.42–2.03]), and a CHADS2 score of ≥3 (1.64 [1.18–2.27]). Conclusions— Stroke rates are higher on OACs with some patient clinical characteristics, that is, older age, female sex, previous stroke/transient ischemic attack, vitamin K-antagonist naive status, renal impairment, previous aspirin use, and higher CHADS2 score. The identified risk factors for stroke while on an OAC could potentially be used to consider a risk assessment tool to flag up high-risk patients while on an OAC (in this case, warfarin). Whether these risk factors apply to novel OACs is uncertain.

Non-invasive risk scores for prediction of type 2 diabetes (EPIC-InterAct): a validation of existing models.

BACKGROUND The comparative performance of existing models for prediction of type 2 diabetes across populations has not been investigated. We validated existing non-laboratory-based models and assessed variability in predictive performance in European populations. METHODS We selected non-invasive prediction models for incident diabetes developed in populations of European ancestry and validated them using data from the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort sample (27,779 individuals from eight European countries, of whom 12,403 had incident diabetes). We assessed model discrimination and calibration for the first 10 years of follow-up. The models were first adjusted to the country-specific diabetes incidence. We did the main analyses for each country and for subgroups defined by sex, age (<60 years vs ≥60 years), BMI (<25 kg/m(2)vs ≥25 kg/m(2)), and waist circumference (men <102 cm vs ≥102 cm; women <88 cm vs ≥88 cm). FINDINGS We validated 12 prediction models. Discrimination was acceptable to good: C statistics ranged from 0·76 (95% CI 0·72-0·80) to 0·81 (0·77-0·84) overall, from 0·73 (0·70-0·76) to 0·79 (0·74-0·83) in men, and from 0·78 (0·74-0·82) to 0·81 (0·80-0·82) in women. We noted significant heterogeneity in discrimination (pheterogeneity<0·0001) in all but one model. Calibration was good for most models, and consistent across countries (pheterogeneity>0·05) except for three models. However, two models overestimated risk, DPoRT by 34% (95% CI 29-39%) and Cambridge by 40% (28-52%). Discrimination was always better in individuals younger than 60 years or with a low waist circumference than in those aged at least 60 years or with a large waist circumference. Patterns were inconsistent for BMI. All models overestimated risks for individuals with a BMI of <25 kg/m(2). Calibration patterns were inconsistent for age and waist-circumference subgroups. INTERPRETATION Existing diabetes prediction models can be used to identify individuals at high risk of type 2 diabetes in the general population. However, the performance of each model varies with country, age, sex, and adiposity. FUNDING The European Union.

Stroke and thromboembolic event rates in atrial fibrillation according to different guideline treatment thresholds: A nationwide cohort study.

Contemporary guidelines suggest anticoagulant treatment decisions in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients to be based on risk stratification for stroke. However, guidelines do not agree on the threshold for treatment initiation. We explored the variation in thromboembolic event rates in a non-anticoagulated AF population, according to different guideline threshold and methodological approaches. AF patients between 1998 and 2014 free from anticoagulant treatment were identified. Event rates for ischemic stroke and ischemic stroke/systemic embolism were explored. The overall ischemic stroke rate was 3.20 per 100 person-years (‘formal rate assessment’). For patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc score of 1 the ischemic stroke rate was 0.97 when using a ‘formal rate assessment’, 0.62 when using a ‘conditioning on the future’ approach, and 0.93 when using a ‘censoring approach’. Rates for thromboembolism for the ‘European treatment threshold’ (CHA2DS2-VASc score of 1, males only) ranged 1.17 to 1.53. Rates for the ‘U.S. treatment threshold’ (CHA2DS2-VASc of 2) ranged from 1.95 to 2.33. Thromboembolic event rates differed markedly in non-anticoagulated AF patients according to the conflicting European and U.S. guideline treatment thresholds. Second, the choice of methodological approach has implications, thus we recommend using the censoring approach for event rate estimation among AF patients not on treatment.

The Impact of Smoking on Thromboembolism and Mortality in Patients With Incident Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND Smoking and atrial fibrillation (AF) are major health problems worldwide and are responsible for substantial health-care costs. Our aim was to investigate whether smoking impacts the risk of stroke and death in patients with AF. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed data from a large Danish cohort: the Diet, Cancer, and Health study. METHODS This was a cohort study of 57,053 people (27,178 men; 29,876 women) aged 50 to 64 years. The risk of thromboembolism (ischemic stroke/arterial thromboembolism) or death according to smoking habits among 3,161 patients with incident AF (mean age, 66.9 years; 2,032 men, 1,129 women) was assessed using Cox proportional hazard models after a median follow-up of 4.9 years. RESULTS Of those with AF, 34% were current smokers and 37% former smokers. After adjustment for vitamin K antagonist treatment, the hazard ratios (HRs) (95% CI) of thromboembolism or death were 3.13 (1.72-6.37) and 2.73 (2.02-3.70) among women and men who currently were heavy smokers (> 25 g/d), respectively. The associations remained after adjustment for well-established risk factors with HRs of 3.64 (1.88-7.07) and 2.17 (1.59-2.95) among women and men, respectively. In a sensitivity analysis, smoking was still strongly associated with thromboembolism or death after censoring people with a cancer diagnosis during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS Smoking is associated with a higher risk of thromboembolism or death in patients with AF even after adjusting for well-recognized risk factors used in stroke risk stratification schemes. The associations may be modified by sex, as the associations were strongest among women.BACKGROUND Smoking and atrial fibrillation (AF) are major health problems worldwide and are responsible for substantial health-care costs. Our aim was to investigate whether smoking impacts the risk of stroke and death in patients with AF. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed data from a large Danish cohort: the Diet, Cancer, and Health study. METHODS This was a cohort study of 57,053 people (27,178 men; 29,876 women) aged 50 to 64 years. The risk of thromboembolism (ischemic stroke/arterial thromboembolism) or death according to smoking habits among 3,161 patients with incident AF (mean age, 66.9 years; 2,032 men, 1,129 women) was assessed using Cox proportional hazard models after a median follow-up of 4.9 years. RESULTS Of those with AF, 34% were current smokers and 37% former smokers. After adjustment for vitamin K antagonist treatment, the hazard ratios (HRs) (95% CI) of thromboembolism or death were 3.13 (1.72-6.37) and 2.73 (2.02-3.70) among women and men who currently were heavy smokers (>25 g/d), respectively. The associations remained after adjustment for well-established risk factors with HRs of 3.64 (1.88-7.07) and 2.17 (1.59-2.95) among women and men, respectively. In a sensitivity analysis, smoking was still strongly associated with thromboembolism or death after censoring people with a cancer diagnosis during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS Smoking is associated with a higher risk of thromboembolism or death in patients with AF even after adjusting for well-recognized risk factors used in stroke risk stratification schemes. The associations may be modified by sex, as the associations were strongest among women.

Alcohol intake and prognosis of atrial fibrillation

Objective To assess alcohol intake as a risk factor for adverse events among patients with incident atrial fibrillation (AF). Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Population based cohort study and nationwide Danish registries. Patients The Danish Diet, Cancer and Health study included 57 053 participants (27 178 men and 29 875 women) aged between 50 and 64 years. The study population for this study included the 3107 participants (1999 men, 1108 women) who developed incident AF after inclusion. Main outcome measures A composite of thromboembolism or death. Results During a median follow-up of 4.9 years 608 deaths and 211 thromboembolic events occurred. Of those who developed AF, 690 (35%) men and 233 (21%) women had a high intake of alcohol (>20 drinks/week for men and >13 drinks/week for women). After adjustment for use of oral anticoagulation and components of the CHA2DS2-VASc score, men with an intake of >27 drinks/week had a higher risk for thromboembolism or death (hazard ratio (HR) 1.33, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.63) than men with an intake of <14 drinks/week. Women with an intake of >20 drinks/week also had a higher risk (HR 1.23, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.96) than women in the low intake category. The higher risk among men was primarily driven by mortality (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.89), whereas the risk found among women was driven by thromboembolism (HR 1.71, 95% CI 0.81 to 3.60). Conclusions High alcohol intake predicts thromboembolism or death, even after adjustment for established clinical risk factors, and may help identify high risk AF patients who could be targeted for stroke and cardiovascular prevention strategies.

Duration of Diabetes Mellitus and Risk of Thromboembolism and Bleeding in Atrial Fibrillation Nationwide Cohort Study

Background and Purpose— Guidelines advocate anticoagulant treatment to all patients with atrial fibrillation and concomitant diabetes mellitus. The potential refinement to thromboembolic risk stratification that may spring from subdividing diabetes mellitus is unexplored. The purpose was to investigate duration of diabetes mellitus as a predictor of thromboembolism and anticoagulant-related bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation. Methods— Using nationwide Danish registries, we identified all patients discharged from hospital with an incident diagnosis of atrial fibrillation from 2000 to 2011. Hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals for thromboembolism and bleeding according to years of diabetes mellitus duration in categories (0–4, 5–9, 10–14, and ≥15) and as a continuous variable using cubic splines were calculated by Cox regression. Results— The study population comprised 137 222 patients with atrial fibrillation, of which 12.4% had diabetes mellitus. Compared with patients without diabetes mellitus and after adjustment for anticoagulant treatment and CHA2DS2-VASc components (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age, previous stroke, vascular disease, and sex), the risk of thromboembolism was lowest in the 0 to 4 years duration category (hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 1.03–1.20), and highest in the longest duration category of ≥15 years (hazard ratio, 1.48; 95% confidence interval, 1.29–1.70). When analyzed as a continuous variable, duration of diabetes mellitus was associated with risk of thromboembolism in a dose-response-dependent manner, but not with a higher risk of bleeding during anticoagulant treatment. Conclusions— In patients with atrial fibrillation, longer duration of diabetes mellitus was associated with a higher risk of thromboembolism, but not with a higher risk of anticoagulant-related bleeding. Considering the critical balance between preventing thromboembolism and avoiding bleeding, longer duration of diabetes mellitus may favor initiation of anticoagulant therapy.

Prevention of venous thromboembolism with new oral anticoagulants versus standard pharmacological treatment in acute medically ill patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

AbstractIntroduction: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common and potentially avoidable cause of morbidity and mortality in patients hospitalized for acute medical illness. Objective: Our objective was to conduct a systematic review of studies that assessed the efficacy and safety of new oral anticoagulant (OAC) drugs versus standard pharmacological drugs and/or placebo in prevention of VTE in acute medically ill patients. Methods: PubMed.org and ClinicalTrials.gov databases were searched to identify studies that evaluated the efficacy and safety of a new OAC versus the standard pharmacological treatment and/or placebo in the prevention of VTE in medically ill patients. Relative risks (RR), weighted means and 95% CIs were calculated. Statistical heterogeneity was evaluated using Chi2 and I2 statistics.Two studies were included in the meta-analysis. The primary outcome in both studies was the composite of VTE-related death, symptomatic non-fatal pulmonary embolism (PE), symptomatic deep venous thrombosis (DVT) and asymptomatic proximal DVT. Both studies compared a factor (F)Xa inhibitor with enoxaparin in standard short-term thromboprophylaxis followed by a period where the FXa inhibitor was compared with placebo as prolonged thromboprophylaxis in medically ill patients. The primary major safety outcome in both studies was a composite of treatment-related major bleeding and clinically relevant non-major bleeding. A total of 14 629 patients were randomized. Results: Compared with subjects treated with enoxaparin followed by placebo, the RR of the primary outcome during the prolonged treatment period was 0.79 (95% CI 0.66, 0.94), the RR for the primary outcome during the first short-term treatment period was 1.03 (95% CI 0.81, 1.31). For major bleeding during the prolonged treatment period, the RR was 2.69 (95% CI 1.65, 4.39) for patients treated with an FXa inhibitor compared with enoxaparin/placebo. For major bleeding during the shorter treatment period, the RR was 2.01 (95% CI 1.10, 3.65) in favour of enoxaparin. Conclusion: In acute medically ill patients, prolonged thromboprophylaxis with an oral FXa inhibitor is more protective than regular short-term treatment with enoxaparin. However, treatment with FXa inhibitors is significantly associated with major bleeding, both in long- and short-term treatment compared with enoxaparin.

Female Sex Is a Risk Modifier Rather Than a Risk Factor for Stroke in Atrial Fibrillation: Should We Use a CHA2DS2-VA Score Rather Than CHA2DS2-VASc?

Background: Stroke risk in atrial fibrillation is assessed by using the CHA2DS2-VASc score. Sex category (Sc, ie, female sex) confers 1 point on CHA2DS2-VASc. We hypothesized that female sex is a stroke risk modifier, rather than an overall risk factor, when added to a CHA2DS2-VA (sex-independent thromboembolism risk) score scale. Methods: Using 3 nationwide registries, we identified patients with incident nonvalvular atrial fibrillation from January 1, 1997, through December 31, 2015. Patients receiving oral anticoagulant treatment at baseline were excluded, and person-time was censored at the time of treatment initiation (if any). CHA2DS2-VA scores were calculated for men and women, and were followed for up to 1 year in the Danish National Patient Registry. The primary outcome was a primary hospital code for ischemic stroke or systemic embolism (thromboembolism). We calculated crude event rates for risk strata as events per 100 person-years. For quantifying absolute risk of stroke, we calculated risks based on the pseudovalue method. Female sex as a prognostic factor was investigated by inclusion as an interaction term on the CHA2DS2-VA score to calculate the thromboembolic risk ratio for different score points. Results: A total of 239 671 patients with atrial fibrillation (48.7% women) contributed to the analyses. The mean ages for women and men were 76.6 years and 70.3 years, respectively; the mean CHA2DS2-VA scores were 2.7 for women and 2.3 for men. The overall 1-year thromboembolic rate per 100 person-years for women was 7.3 and 5.7 for men. The 1-year absolute risk of thromboembolism was 0.5% among men and women with a CHA2DS2-VA score of 0 and increased up to >7% among very comorbid patients (score >5). The risk ratio (male as reference) across points >1 indicated that women exhibit a higher stroke risk. The interaction was statistically significant (P<0.001). Conclusions: Female sex is a risk modifier for stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation. Initial decisions on oral anticoagulant treatment could be guided by a CHA2DS2-VA score (ie, excluding the sex category criterion), but the Sc risk component modifies and accentuates stroke risk in women who would have been eligible for oral anticoagulant treatment on the basis of ≥2 additional stroke risk factors.

Treatment thresholds for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation: observations on the CHA2DS2-VASc score

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an expanding epidemic,1 and ischaemic stroke due to cardioembolism remains a trademark serious complication of AF.2 The now historical stroke prevention in AF trials demonstrated that compared with placebo/control, anticoagulation with a vitamin K antagonist (VKA, e.g. warfarin) reduced stroke by 64% while also reducing all-cause mortality in patients with non-valvular AF, whereas platelet inhibition with aspirin had a non-significant 19% reduction in stroke and no benefit on mortality.3 Thus, effective stroke prevention means oral anticoagulation. Although highly effective, antithrombotic drugs increase the risk of bleeding events, and the expected benefits and harms for the individual patient must be carefully weighed when deciding on whether or not to initiate treatment. More specifically, a certain absolute level of thromboembolic risk is required before the protective antithrombotic effect outweighs the associated serious bleeding risk. To alleviate this clinical conundrum and aid decision making, the use of validated stroke and bleeding risk scores is recommended.4 Most contemporary guidelines recommend using the CHA2DS2-VASc score to determine whether an atrial fibrillation (AF) patient has an indication for antithrombotic treatment.5–8 Nonetheless, guideline recommendations are conflicting (see Table 1 ). View this table: Table 1 Conflicting guideline recommendations for antithrombotic management of women and men with atrial fibrillation Some guidelines have used the CHA2DS2-VASc score in a categorical manner, artificially dividing patients into low-, moderate- and, high-risk strata—and making treatment recommendations based on these strata. Also, all guidelines actually provide treatment recommendations that extend beyond what has been specifically investigated in randomized trials. Randomized trials are the gold standard to testing the effectiveness and safety of an intervention but clinical trials focus on highly selected populations with specific inclusion/exclusion criteria. The historical stroke prevention trials testing the effect of antithrombotic therapy against no treatment or …