Tiago Farias Sobel

Adoção de estratégias para redução de riscos: identificação dos determinantes da diversificação produtiva no Polo Petrolina-Juazeiro

This paper characterizes the farmers of Petrolina-Juazeiro Polo depending on the adoption of strategies of product diversification to mitigate a variety of risks. To that end, were collected 173 observations and an econometric model, ordered logit, was applied to identify factors that influence the probability of the producer to diversify their production. The estimation of the econometric model suggests that the main factors influencing diversification of production at the pole are: size (small farmer), experience, contracts, sales to middlemen, cultivation of main crops (banana, coconut, guava, mango and grape), association, technical assistance, certification, post-harvest care and internet access procedures. The investigation of these relations becomes relevant to the formulation of policies to encourage the adoption of management strategies to reduce risks in the region, currently concerned with the specialization of activities and the vulnerability of producers face to demand shocks.

Evolução e caracterização dos níveis de pobreza do Nordeste entre 1995 e 2005

Existe um amplo consenso entre cientistas, politicos, pesquisadores e intelectuais de todo o mundo de que a reducao da pobreza deve ser vista como uma das prioridades das politicas publicas. Deste modo, a mensuracao do nivel de pobreza se torna alvo de um intenso debate, na medida em que e necessario primeiramente identificar onde ela esta localizada para, em seguida, ter-se condicoes de combate-la. Hoje no Brasil esta preocupacao se torna mais evidente quando as analises enfocam o espaco economico do Nordeste, pois esta regiao e reconhecidamente a mais carente do pais. Ao mesmo tempo, e sabido que a partir de meados de 1994 uma nova realidade politica foi imposta ao pais, acarretando em uma serie de consequencias sobre a populacao nacional e, automaticamente, tambem sobre a nordestina. Neste sentido, o presente trabalho tem como objetivo geral mensurar e analisar, por meio de uma serie de indicadores, a evolucao da pobreza nos nove estados da regiao Nordeste entre os anos de 1995 a 2005, expondo os principais atributos que influenciaram na dinâmica observada. De uma maneira geral, observou-se que, embora em 2005 os indicadores de pobreza ainda se encontrassem em patamares alarmantes, houve uma tendencia semelhante na sua evolucao na regiao – um consideravel declinio entre 1995 e 2005 – contudo, com pequenas divergencias nas intensidades de comportamento dos diferentes estados. -----------------------------------------------All over the world, an ample consensus exists between scientists, political, researchers and intellectuals that poverty reduction should be seen as one of the public policies priorities. Therefore, poverty level mensuration becomes the target of an intense debate, when it is necessary firstly to identify where poverty is located to have, afterwards, conditions of combatting it. Nowadays, in Brazil, this concern is more evident when the analyses focus the economical space of the Northeast, because this region is considered the poorest of the country. At the same time, it is known that, starting from middles of 1994, a new political reality was imposed to the country resulting in several consequences for the national population and, automatically, the Northeaster population too. In this sense, this article has as general objective to measure and analyze, through several indicators, poverty evolution in the nine states of the Brazilian Northeast Region among the 1995 and 2005, exposing the main attributes that influenced in the observed dynamics. In general, it was observed that, although in 2005 the poverty indicators were in high levels, there was a similar tendency in the poverty evolution in the region – a considerable decline between 1995 and 2005 – however, with some divergences in the behaviors intensities of different States.