Tidiane Kinda

Distributional Consequences of Fiscal Consolidation and the Role of Fiscal Policy: What Do the Data Say?

The 2007-09 Great Recession has led to an unprecedented increase in public debt in many countries, triggering substantial fiscal adjustments. What are the distributional consequences of fiscal austerity measures? This is an important policy question. This paper analyzes the effects of fiscal policies on income inequality in a panel of advanced and emerging market economies over the last three decades, complemented by a case study of selected consolidation episodes. The paper shows that fiscal consolidations are likely to raise inequality through various channels including their effects on unemployment. Spending-based consolidations tend to worsen inequality more significantly, relative to tax-based consolidations. The composition of austerity measures also matters: progressive taxation and targeted social benefits and subsidies introduced in the context of a broader decline in spending can help offset some of the adverse distributional impact of consolidation. In addition, fiscal policy can favorably influence long-term trends in both inequality and growth by promoting education and training among low- and middle-income workers.

Strengthening Post‐Crisis Fiscal Credibility: Fiscal Councils on the Rise – A New Dataset

Institutions aimed at constraining policy discretion to promote sound fiscal policies are once again at the forefront of the policy debate. Interest in “fiscal councils,” independent watchdogs active in the public debate, has grown rapidly in recent years. This paper presents the first cross-country dataset summarizing key characteristics of fiscal councils among IMF members. The data documents a surge in the number of fiscal councils since the crisis. It also illustrates that well-designed fiscal councils are associated with stronger fiscal performance and better macroeconomic and budgetary forecasts. Key features of effective fiscal councils include operational independence from politics, the provision or public assessment of budgetary forecasts, a strong presence in the public debate, and the monitoring of compliance with fiscal policy rules.

FIRM PRODUCTIVITY AND INVESTMENT CLIMATE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: HOW DOES MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA MANUFACTURING PERFORM?

Firm productive performances in five Middle East and North African (MENA) economies and eight manufacturing industries are compared to those in 17 other developing countries. Although the broad picture hides some heterogeneity, enterprises in MENA often performed inadequately compared to MENA status of middle-income economies, with the exception of Morocco and, to some extent, Saudi Arabia. Firm competitiveness is a more constant constraint, with a unit labor cost higher than in most competitor countries, as well as investment climate (IC) deficiencies. The empirical analysis also points out how IC matters for firm productivity through the quality of infrastructure, the experience and education of the labor force, the cost and access to financing, and different dimensions of the government-business relationship. These findings bear important policy implications by showing which dimensions of the IC, in which industry, could help manufacturing in MENA to be more competitive in the globalization context.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

A New Heuristic Measure of Fragility and Tail Risks: Application to Stress Testing

This paper presents a simple heuristic measure of tail risk, which is applied to individual bank stress tests and to public debt. Stress testing can be seen as a first order test of the level of potential negative outcomes in response to tail shocks. However, the results of stress testing can be misleading in the presence of model error and the uncertainty attending parameters and their estimation. The heuristic can be seen as a second order stress test to detect nonlinearities in the tails that can lead to fragility, i.e., provide additional information on the robustness of stress tests. It also shows how the measure can be used to assess the robustness of public debt forecasts, an important issue in many countries. The heuristic measure outlined here can be used in a variety of situations to ascertain an ordinal ranking of fragility to tail risks.

Fiscal Rules at a Glance

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Expenditure Rules: Effective Tools for Sound Fiscal Policy?

This paper provides new evidence on the effectiveness of expenditure rules. The analysis is based on a unique dataset covering all countries with national and supranational fiscal rules, including 33 expenditure rules, between 1985 and 2013. It contributes to the existing literature on fiscal rules in two main ways. First, it is the most comprehensive assessment of compliance with rules and of the potential role of expenditure rules, in particular regarding long-term sustainability. Second, it analyzes whether expenditure rules are associated with changes in public investment and its efficiency.

Beyond natural resources: horizontal and vertical FDI diversification in Sub-Saharan Africa

This article uses firm-level data to analyse the drivers of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to the manufacturing and services sectors of 30 Sub-Saharan African countries. It shows that improving the investment climate helps to attract aggregate FDI. By analysing disaggregate FDI data, the article establishes that there is considerable contrast in behaviour between vertical FDI (foreign firms producing for export) and horizontal FDI (foreign firms producing for local markets). In particular, the latter firms are attracted to areas with higher trade regulations, highlighting their interest in protected markets. Furthermore, horizontal FDI is more affected by financing and human capital constraints and less affected by infrastructure and institutional constraints than vertical FDI is.

Foreign ownership, sales to multinationals and firm efficiency: the case of Brazil, Morocco, Pakistan, South Africa and Vietnam

Using a one-step stochastic frontier model for five developing countries, this article shows that foreign firms benefit from a better investment climate, which significantly explains why they are more efficient than local firms. This article uses the share of each firms sales to multinationals located in the country to assess the importance of vertical spillovers, while controlling for the direct impact of the investment climate on efficiency. The results show that firms, particularly small local firms, selling more of their production to multinationals are more efficient, highlighting the presence of vertical spillovers through backward linkages.

Textile Manufacturing in Eight Developing Countries: Does Business Environment Matter for Firm Technical Efficiency?

Abstract Production frontiers with technical inefficiency determinants are estimated using stochastic models for textile manufacturing in eight developing countries encompassing about 800 firms. Inefficiency determinants are considered either on an individual basis, or in the form of composite indicators reflecting in-house or managerial factors and various dimensions of the external environment. Although each of these two categories of factors is statistically significant, the former proves more influential in the explanation of the difference in efficiency between firms. Simulations are then proposed to assess the efficiency levels that would occur if firms had the opportunity to produce in the most favourable productive environments.

Reforming Fiscal Governance in the European Union

Successive reforms have brought many positive elements to the European Union’s fiscal framework. But they have also increased its complexity. The current system involves an intricate set of fiscal constraints, which hampers effective monitoring and public communication. Compliance has also been weak. This note discusses medium-term reform options to simplify the framework and improve compliance. Based on model simulations and practical considerations, it argues for moving to a two-pillar approach, with a single fiscal anchor (public debt-to-GDP) and a single operational target (an expenditure growth rule, possibly with an explicit debt correction mechanism) linked to the anchor.