Ties Boerma

Countdown to 2015 decade report (2000–10): taking stock of maternal, newborn, and child survival

The Countdown to 2015 for Maternal, Newborn, and Child Survival monitors coverage of priority interventions to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) for child mortality and maternal health. We reviewed progress between 1990 and 2010 in coverage of 26 key interventions in 68 Countdown priority countries accounting for more than 90% of maternal and child deaths worldwide. 19 countries studied were on track to meet MDG 4, in 47 we noted acceleration in the yearly rate of reduction in mortality of children younger than 5 years, and in 12 countries progress had decelerated since 2000. Progress towards reduction of neonatal deaths has been slow, and maternal mortality remains high in most Countdown countries, with little evidence of progress. Wide and persistent disparities exist in the coverage of interventions between and within countries, but some regions have successfully reduced longstanding inequities. Coverage of interventions delivered directly in the community on scheduled occasions was higher than for interventions relying on functional health systems. Although overseas development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health has increased, funding for this sector accounted for only 31% of all development assistance for health in 2007. We provide evidence from several countries showing that rapid progress is possible and that focused and targeted interventions can reduce inequities related to socioeconomic status and sex. However, much more can and should be done to address maternal and newborn health and improve coverage of interventions related to family planning, care around childbirth, and case management of childhood illnesses.

Global and regional causes of death.

BACKGROUND Assessing the causes of death across all regions of the world requires a framework for integrating, and analysing, the fragmentary information that is available on numbers of deaths and their cause distributions. This paper provides an overview of the met and methods used by the World Health Organization to develop global-, regional- and country-level estimates of mortality for a comprehensive set of causes, and provides an overview of global and regional levels and patterns of causes of death for the year 2004. The paper also examines some of the data gaps, uncertainties and limitations in the resulting mortality estimates. SOURCES OF DATA Deaths for 136 disease and injury causes were estimated from available death registration data (111 countries), sample death registration data (India and China), and for the remaining countries from census and survey information, and cause-of-death models. Population-based epidemiological studies and notifications systems also contributed to estimating mortality for 21 of these causes (representing 28% of deaths globally, 58% in Africa). AREAS OF AGREEMENT Ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease are the leading causes of death, followed by lower respiratory infections, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diarrhoeal diseases. AIDS and TB are the sixth and seventh most common causes of death, respectively, lower than in previous estimates. One-half of all child deaths are from four preventable and treatable communicable diseases. Globally, around 6 in 10 deaths are from non-communicable diseases, 3 from communicable diseases and 1 from injuries. Injury mortality is highest in South-East Asia, Latin America and the Eastern Mediterranean region. These results illustrate continuing huge disparities in risks and causes of death across the world. AREAS OF CONTROVERSY Global mortality analyses of the type reported here have been criticized for making estimates of mortality for regions with limited, incomplete and uncertain data. Estimates presented here use a range of techniques depending on the type and quality of evidence. Better evidence on levels of adult mortality is needed for African countries. GROWING POINTS Considerable gaps and deficiencies remain in the information available on causes of death. Nine of 10 deaths in 2004 occurred in low- and middle-income countries, reinforcing the fundamental importance of improving mortality statistics as a measure of health status in the developing world. Acknowledging the controversies around use of incomplete and uncertain data, systematic assessments and synthesis of the available evidence will continue to provide important inputs for global health planning. AREAS TIMELY FOR DEVELOPING RESEARCH Innovative methods involving sample registration, and the use of verbal autopsy questionnaires in surveys, are needed to address these gaps. Research on strategies to improve comparability of cause-of-death certification and coding practices across countries is also a high priority.

National, Regional, and Global Trends in Infertility Prevalence Since 1990: A Systematic Analysis of 277 Health Surveys

Gretchen Stevens and colleagues use information from demographic reproductive health surveys to estimate the global, regional, and country levels, patterns, and trends in infertility between 1990 and 2010.

Health information systems: the foundations of public health

Public health decision-making is critically dependent on the timely availability of sound data. The role of health information systems is to generate, analyse and disseminate such data. In practice, health information systems rarely function systematically. The products of historical, social and economic forces, they are complex, fragmented and unresponsive to needs. International donors in health are largely responsible for the problem, having prioritized urgent needs for data over longer-term country capacity-building. The result is painfully apparent in the inability of most countries to generate the data needed to monitor progress towards the Millennium Development Goals. Solutions to the problem must be comprehensive; money alone is likely to be insufficient unless accompanied by sustained support to country systems development coupled with greater donor accountability and allocation of responsibilities. The Health Metrics Network, a global collaboration in the making, is intended to help bring such solutions to the countries most in need.

Global, regional, and national levels and trends in maternal mortality between 1990 and 2015, with scenario-based projections to 2030: a systematic analysis by the UN Maternal Mortality Estimation Inter-Agency Group

Summary Background Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 5 calls for a reduction of 75% in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) between 1990 and 2015. We estimated levels and trends in maternal mortality for 183 countries to assess progress made. Based on MMR estimates for 2015, we constructed scenario-based projections to highlight the accelerations needed to accomplish the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) global target of less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births globally by 2030. Methods We updated the open access UN Maternal Mortality Estimation Inter-agency Group (MMEIG) database. Based upon nationally-representative data for 171 countries, we generated estimates of maternal mortality and related indicators with uncertainty intervals using a Bayesian model, which extends and refines the previous UN MMEIG estimation approach. The model combines the rate of change implied by a multilevel regression model with a time series model to capture data-driven changes in country-specific MMRs, and includes a data model to adjust for systematic and random errors associated with different data sources. Results The global MMR declined from 385 deaths per 100,000 live births (80% uncertainty interval ranges from 359 to 427) in 1990 to 216 (207 to 249) in 2015, corresponding to a relative decline of 43.9% (34.0 to 48.7) during the 25-year period, with 303,000 (291,000 to 349,000) maternal deaths globally in 2015. Regional progress in reducing the MMR since 1990 ranged from an annual rate of reduction of 1.8% (0 to 3.1) in the Caribbean to 5.0% (4.0 to 6.0) for Eastern Asia. Regional MMRs for 2015 range from 12 (11 to 14) for developed regions to 546 (511 to 652) for sub-Saharan Africa. Accelerated progress will be needed to achieve the SDG goal; countries will need to reduce their MMRs at an annual rate of reduction of at least 7.5%. Interpretation Despite global progress in reducing maternal mortality, immediate action is required to begin making progress towards the ambitious SDG 2030 target, and ultimately eliminating preventable maternal mortality. While the rates of reduction that are required to achieve country-specific SDG targets are ambitious for the great majority of high mortality countries, the experience and rates of change between 2000 and 2010 in selected countries–those with concerted efforts to reduce the MMR- provide inspiration as well as guidance on how to accomplish the acceleration necessary to substantially reduce preventable maternal deaths. Funding Funding from grant R-155-000-146-112 from the National University of Singapore supported the research by LA and SZ. AG is the recipient of a National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, grant # T32-HD007275. Funding also provided by USAID and HRP (the UNDP/UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction).

Child survival gains in Tanzania: Analysis of data from demographic and health surveys.

BACKGROUND A recent national survey in Tanzania reported that mortality in children younger than 5 years dropped by 24% over the 5 years between 2000 and 2004. We aimed to investigate yearly changes to identify what might have contributed to this reduction and to investigate the prospects for meeting the Millennium Development Goal for child survival (MDG 4). METHODS We analysed data from the four demographic and health surveys done in Tanzania since 1990 to generate estimates of mortality in children younger than 5 years for every 1-year period before each survey back to 1990. We estimated trends in mortality between 1990 and 2004 by fitting Lowess regression, and forecasted trends in mortality in 2005 to 2015. We aimed to investigate contextual factors, whether part of Tanzanias health system or not, that could have affected child mortality. FINDINGS Disaggregated estimates of mortality showed a sharp acceleration in the reduction in mortality in children younger than 5 years in Tanzania between 2000 and 2004. In 1990, the point estimate of mortality was 141.5 (95% CI 141.5-141.5) deaths per 1000 livebirths. This was reduced by 40%, to reach a point estimate of 83.2 (95% CI 70.1-96.3) deaths per 1000 livebirths in 2004. The change in absolute risk was 58.4 (95% CI 32.7-83.8; p<0.0001). Between 1999 and 2004 we noted important improvements in Tanzanias health system, including doubled public expenditure on health; decentralisation and sector-wide basket funding; and increased coverage of key child-survival interventions, such as integrated management of childhood illness, insecticide-treated nets, vitamin A supplementation, immunisation, and exclusive breastfeeding. Other determinants of child survival that are not related to the health system did not change between 1999 and 2004, except for a slow increase in the HIV/AIDS burden. INTERPRETATION Tanzania could attain MDG 4 if this trend of improved child survival were to be sustained. Investment in health systems and scaling up interventions can produce rapid gains in child survival.

Countdown to 2015: a decade of tracking progress for maternal, newborn, and child survival

Conceived in 2003 and born in 2005 with the launch of its first report and country profiles, the Countdown to 2015 for Maternal, Newborn, and Child Survival has reached its originally proposed lifespan. Major reductions in the deaths of mothers and children have occurred since Countdowns inception, even though most of the 75 priority countries failed to achieve Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5. The coverage of life-saving interventions tracked in Countdown increased steadily over time, but wide inequalities persist between and within countries. Key drivers of coverage such as financing, human resources, commodities, and conducive health policies also showed important, yet insufficient increases. As a multistakeholder initiative of more than 40 academic, international, bilateral, and civil society institutions, Countdown was successful in monitoring progress and raising the visibility of the health of mothers, newborns, and children. Lessons learned from this initiative have direct bearing on monitoring progress during the Sustainable Development Goals era.

Setting international standards for verbal autopsy

In many countries most deaths occur at home. Such countries often have civil registration systems that are limited or non-existent and therefore most deaths go unrecorded. Countries that cannot record the number of people who die or why they die cannot realize the full potential of their health systems. Health systems need reliable numbers and causes of death to function properly. But in these circumstances – in the absence of a complete picture of the population’s health – there are tools and techniques that can be used to obtain a fairly accurate representation of mortality trends. It takes a long time for countries to achieve a fully functioning civil registration system with medical certification of cause of death. In the meantime, more and more countries are using verbal autopsies (VA) to meet the information needs of their health systems.1 Verbal autopsy is a method of ascertaining probable causes of a death based on an interview with primary caregivers about the signs, symptoms and circumstances preceding that death. Different institutions have been researching and developing all aspects of the verbal autopsy process over the past two decades. We have also been working on this process, particularly to improve the questionnaire and the methods of analysing the resulting information. However, this has been a largely uncoordinated effort and one that has not reached consensus on what to cover in the interview and how to analyse the results, despite previous attempts to promote standard tools.2–4 The main consequence of this failure to agree on a standard approach is that now we cannot compare results from different countries. Currently, 36 Demographic Surveillance Sites (DSS) in 20 countries, the Sample Registration System (SRS) sites in India, and the Disease Surveillance Points (DSP) in China regularly use VA on a large scale, primarily to assess the causes-of-death structure of a defined population.1 Despite such a widespread use of verbal autopsy, we are unable to assess how consistent and reliable the data are. We are also unable to replicate procedures used to assign cause of death. Because verbal autopsy data sets are not widely shared, it is impossible to independently assess the quality of the assignment. Really useful validation studies are rare and verbal autopsy research is often done on small and non-representative samples of the population. The Millennium Development Goals (MDG) have put pressure on countries to track their progress in terms of population health. But to track that progress, countries need reliable numbers. In other words, they need a strong empirical basis for cause-specific mortality data. This is essential for evaluating the impact of disease control programmes and major global health initiatives. One way of dealing with incomplete information is to use models of mortality patterns. But cause-of-death information predicted by such models is not suitable for monitoring progress on what works and what does not.5 That leaves verbal autopsy as the only practical option in these countries and one that will play a key role in tracking progress towards the MDGs. Agreement on a core set of verbal autopsy tools (including technical standards and guidelines for their use) and their widespread adoption is needed now. To tackle this challenge, WHO led an expert group of researchers, data users, and other stakeholders, with sponsorship from the Health Metrics Network (HMN), in developing the necessary standards. The expert group systematically reviewed, debated, and condensed the accumulated experience and evidence from the most widely-used and validated procedures. This synthesis was done to achieve a high degree of consistency and comparability across verbal autopsy data sets. WHO has now published the results of this collaboration as: Verbal autopsy standards: ascertaining and attributing cause of death. The new standards include: Verbal autopsy questionnaires for three age groups (under four weeks; four weeks to 14 years; and 15 years and above); Cause-of-death certification and coding resources consistent with the International Classification of Diseases and Related health Problems, tenth revision (ICD-10); and A cause-of-death list for verbal autopsy prepared according to the ICD-10. The content is freely available on the WHO web site (www.who.int) and will be distributed in print; and incorporated into HMN’s resource kit. This is an important publication, but it is not the last word on verbal autopsy methods. Research is needed to validate these standard core procedures in several countries with different patterns of mortality. Other areas of research include further development of items included in questionnaires, and automated methods for assigning causes of death from verbal autopsy that remove human bias, while producing replicable and valid results.6 Operational issues need addressing: sampling methods and size when using verbal autopsy tools in research demographic surveillance sites; sample or sentinel registration; censuses; and household surveys. Research is also required when adapting these questionnaires to specific situations in different countries, taking into account relevant cultural, epidemiological and administrative considerations. WHO is working with partners to do this research and develop guidelines on these issues. With time, this guidance and experience will better inform the users of verbal autopsy, and improve the comparability and consistency of its results. For the present, we urge that these new international consensus standards become the foundation of verbal autopsy practices wherever possible. ■

Causes of international increases in older age life expectancy

In high-income countries, life expectancy at age 60 years has increased in recent decades. Falling tobacco use (for men only) and cardiovascular disease mortality (for both men and women) are the main factors contributing to this rise. In high-income countries, avoidable male mortality has fallen since 1980 because of decreases in avoidable cardiovascular deaths. For men in Latin America, the Caribbean, Europe, and central Asia, and for women in all regions, avoidable mortality has changed little or increased since 1980. As yet, no evidence exists that the rate of improvement in older age mortality (60 years and older) is slowing down or that older age deaths are being compressed into a narrow age band as they approach a hypothesised upper limit to longevity.

Monitoring the AIDS epidemic using HIV prevalence data among young women attending antenatal clinics: prospects and problems.

ObjectiveTo assess the potential of antenatal surveillance data on HIV prevalence in young women as an indicator of trends in HIV incidence. DesignReview of empirical data and discussion of problems encountered with surveillance systems, illustrated using cohort-component projection models. MethodsSimple descriptive analyses are presented of prevalence and incidence data, with projection models used to explore aspects of the dynamic relationships between changes in HIV incidence and prevalence in young pregnant women for which empirical data are not yet available. Incidence changes due to change in risk among sexually active, and change in pattern of sexual debut are explored separately, and the resulting prevalence trends in pregnant women under age 25 years, and those expecting their first two births are described. ResultsHIV prevalence levels in young pregnant women categorized by age and by parity have different relationships to recent incidence levels. Age categorized prevalence data provide a reasonable indication of incidence under stable conditions, but may be very misleading if the age pattern of sexual debut changes. Prevalence levels categorized by parity are a reliable guide to incidence in the sexually active, but not necessarily to incidence in the population as a whole. ConclusionsAnte-natal surveillance systems should categorize prevalence data by both age and parity to aid in the interpretation of underlying incidence levels.