Tilak Abeysinghe

Estimation of direct and indirect impact of oil price on growth

Abstract Using a new methodology, this paper measures the direct and indirect effects of oil prices on GDP growth of 12 economies. Because of the indirect effect, which is transmitted through a trade matrix, even the net oil exporters like Indonesia and Malaysia cannot escape the negative influence of high oil prices.

Exchange rate appreciation and export competitiveness. The case of Singapore

Policy prescriptions have generally assumed that exchange rate depreciation would stimulate exports and curtail imports, while exchange rate appreciation would be detrimental to exports and encourage imports. This prediction has, however, often neglected to consider the existence of the import content of exports, as well as the dynamic effects of productivity improvements. Our paper seeks to show empirically, the significance of these two factors in affecting the competitiveness of Singapores exports. Specifically, the paper shows that in the presence of high import content, exports are not adversely affected by currency appreciation because the lower import prices due to appreciation reduce the cost of export production. In the case of Singapore, this cushioning effect outweighs that of the effect of productivity gains on export competitiveness. The service exports, however, with a very low import content tend to suffer from currency appreciation.

Deterministic seasonal models and spurious regressions

Abstract This paper examines the consequences of using seasonal dummies in regressions when seasonality is generated by seasonal unit roots. A unit root process can produce a deterministic seasonal pattern if the starting values contain a strong seasonal. It is shown, however, that subtraction of fixed seasonal means from a seasonally integrated series changes the covariance structure of the series, and often the means-subtracted series may take the appearance of a stationary series in small samples. Monte Carlo results based on series with at least one seasonal unit root show that spurious regressions are very likely if seasonal dummies are used to remove seasonality. Applications to ten real GDP series provide supporting evidence for the spurious regression phenomenon. However, seasonal dummies may provide a reasonable approximation in certain cases. An alternative approach is to use the seasonal filter S(L).

Best linear unbiased disaggregation of annual GDP to quarterly figures: the case of Malaysia

Long series of quarterly GDP figures are still not available for many countries. This paper suggests an empirical procedure adapted from Chow and Lin (1971) to derive quarterly estimates from annual GDP figures and produces quarterly GDP by sectors for Malaysia from 1973Q1 onwards. A comparison of these estimates with some univariate interpolations using published quarterly figures for recent years show that the use of related series can produce substantially superior estimates of GDP compared to univariate methods. The data set is available from the authors. #1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Small sample estimation of a cointegrating vector: an empirical evaluation of six estimation techniques

A large number of techniques are now available for estimating a cointegrating regression. Although many of these techniques provide asymptotically equivalent estimators, their small-sample properties are known only with respect to a limited number of Monte Carlo studies. In light of the growing controversy over the nature of non-stationarity of economic time series, a comprehensive evaluation of these techniques within an applied framework can shed more light on the relative merits of these techniques. An estimation of long-run demand elasticities by six such techniques based on annual data from Canada, China and Singapore show rather disconcerting results. In small samples OLS may still be the best choice.

The Singapore economy : an econometric perspective

1. Introduction 2. The Aggregate Consumption Function 3. Modelling Investment Expenditures 4. The Trade Sector 5. The Labour Market 6. The Sectorial Block 7. Ancillaries and Identities 8. Multiplier Analysis 9. Policy Simulations. Appendix A: Variables and Data Sources. Appendix B: Listing of Equations and Variables

Inappropriate use of seasonal dummies in regression

Abstract Use of seasonal dummies in regression with seasonally integrated series may lead to serious spurious regression problems.

Forecasting Singapore's quarterly GDP with monthly external trade

Abstract In this paper we suggest a methodology to formulate a dynamic regression with variables observed at different time intervals. This methodology is applicable if the explanatory variables are observed more frequently than the dependent variable. We demonstrate this procedure by developing a forecasting model for Singapores quarterly GDP based on monthly external trade. Apart from forecasts, the model provides a monthly distributed lag structure between GDP and external trade, which is not possible with quarterly data.

Electronics and growth cycles in Singapore

With the help of spectral and structural time series analyses it is found that the demand for electronics in the USA goes through a cycle with a period of about four to five years. Because of the synchronized nature of the electronics market, the global demand for electronics is likely to follow a similar cycle. The electronics cycle is unlikely to be caused by a regular business cycle. The major cause of the electronics cycle appears to be a product cycle which results from the introduction of new products to the market. As a result countries like Singapore which depend heavily on electronics exports may face roller coaster rides, especially in their manufacturing growth. Product diversification is the best solution to the problem.

Lifetime Income and Housing Affordability in Singapore

Most commonly used measures of housing affordability are essentially short-run indicators that compare current income with house prices or housing costs. Despite the emphasis in the literature on the importance of long-term affordability, researchers have not developed measures of lifetime income because of data constraints. Many developed countries publish annually household income by age of household heads. Using these data for Singapore, the paper presents a methodology to compute lifetime income from predicted annual household earnings over the working life for each birth cohort in the dataset. The lifetime income of Singapore households by three income quantiles sheds new light on widening income gaps. The affordability index, defined as the ratio of lifetime income to house price, reveals informative trends and cycles in housing affordability in both the public and the private sectors. The paper argues that residential property price escalations need to be avoided.