Till J. W. Wagner

How Climate Model Complexity Influences Sea Ice Stability

AbstractRecord lows in Arctic sea ice extent have been making frequent headlines in recent years. The change in albedo when sea ice is replaced by open water introduces a nonlinearity that has sparked an ongoing debate about the stability of the Arctic sea ice cover and the possibility of Arctic “tipping points.” Previous studies identified instabilities for a shrinking ice cover in two types of idealized climate models: (i) annual-mean latitudinally varying diffusive energy balance models (EBMs) and (ii) seasonally varying single-column models (SCMs). The instabilities in these low-order models stand in contrast with results from comprehensive global climate models (GCMs), which typically do not simulate any such instability. To help bridge the gap between low-order models and GCMs, an idealized model is developed that includes both latitudinal and seasonal variations. The model reduces to a standard EBM or SCM as limiting cases in the parameter space, thus reconciling the two previous lines of research....

The ‘Sticky Elastica’: delamination blisters beyond small deformations

We consider the form of an elastic loop adhered to a rigid substrate: the ‘Sticky Elastica’. In contrast to previous studies of the shape of delamination ‘blisters’, the theory developed accounts for deflections with large slope (i.e. geometrically nonlinear). Starting from the classical Euler Elastica we provide numerical results for the dimensions of such blisters for a variety of end–end confinements and develop asymptotic expressions that reproduce these results well, even up to the point of self-contact. Interestingly, we find that the width of such blisters does not grow monotonically with increased confinement. Our theoretical predictions are confirmed by simple desktop experiments and suggest a new method for the measurement of the elastocapillary length for deformations that cannot be considered small. We discuss the implications of our results for applications such as flexible electronics.

Wind‐driven upwelling around grounded tabular icebergs

Temperature and salinity data collected around grounded tabular icebergs in Baffin Bay in 2011, 2012, and 2013 indicate wind-induced upwelling at certain locations around the icebergs. These data suggest that along one side of the iceberg, wind forcing leads to Ekman transport away from the iceberg, which causes upwelling of the cool saline water from below. The upwelling water mixes with the water above the thermocline, causing the mixed layer to become cooler and more saline. Along the opposite side of the iceberg, the surface Ekman transport moves towards the iceberg, which causes a sharpening of the thermocline as warm fresh water is trapped near the surface. This results in higher mixed layer temperatures and lower mixed layer salinities on this side of the iceberg. Based on these in situ measurements, we hypothesize that the asymmetries in water properties around the iceberg, caused by the opposing effects of upwelling and sharpening of the thermocline, lead to differential deterioration around the iceberg. Analysis of satellite imagery around iceberg PII-B-1 reveals differential decay around the iceberg, in agreement with this mechanism.

The sensitivity of graphene “snap-through” to substrate geometry

We study theoretically the deposition of few layer graphene sheets onto a grooved substrate incorporating adhesion between substrate and sheet. We develop a model to understand the equilibrium of the sheet allowing for partial conformation of sheet to substrate. This model gives physical insight into recent observations of “snap-through” from flat to conforming states and emphasizes the crucial role of substrate shape in determining the nature of this transition. Our analytical results are consistent with numerical simulations using a van der Waals-like interaction. Finally, we propose a substrate shape that should exhibit a continuous, rather than “snap-through”, transition.

On the Role of Buoyant Flexure in Glacier Calving

Interactions between glaciers and the ocean are key for understanding the dynamics of the cryosphere in the climate system. Here we investigate the role of hydrostatic forces in glacier calving. We develop a mathematical model to account for the elastic deformation of glaciers in response to three effects: (i) marine and lake-terminating glaciers tend to enter water with a nonzero slope, resulting in upward flexure around the grounding line; (ii) horizontal pressure imbalances at the terminus are known to cause hydrostatic in-plane stresses and downward acting torque; (iii) submerged ice protrusions at the glacier front may induce additional buoyancy forces that can cause calving. Our model provides theoretical estimates of the importance of each effect and suggests geometric and material conditions under which a given glacier will calve from hydrostatic flexure. We find good agreement with observations. This work sheds light on the intricate processes involved in glacier calving and can be hoped to improve our ability to model and predict future changes in the ice-climate system.

An Analytical Model of Iceberg Drift

AbstractThe fate of icebergs in the polar oceans plays an important role in Earth’s climate system, yet a detailed understanding of iceberg dynamics has remained elusive. Here, the central physical processes that determine iceberg motion are investigated. This is done through the development and analysis of an idealized model of iceberg drift. The model is forced with high-resolution surface velocity and temperature data from an observational state estimate. It retains much of the most salient physics, while remaining sufficiently simple to allow insight into the details of how icebergs drift. An analytical solution of the model is derived, which highlights how iceberg drift patterns depend on iceberg size, ocean current velocity, and wind velocity. A long-standing rule of thumb for Arctic icebergs estimates their drift velocity to be 2% of the wind velocity relative to the ocean current. Here, this relationship is derived from first principles, and it is shown that the relationship holds in the limit of ...

How climate model biases skew the distribution of iceberg meltwater

The discharge of icebergs into the polar oceans is expected to increase over the coming century, which raises the importance of accurate representations of icebergs in global climate models (GCMs) used for future projections. Here, we analyze the prospects for interactive icebergs in GCMs by forcing an iceberg drift and decay model with circulation and temperature fields from (i) state-of-the-art GCM output and (ii) an observational state estimate. The spread of meltwater is found to be smaller for the GCM than for the observational state estimate, despite a substantial high wind bias in the GCM – a bias that is similar to most current GCMs. We argue that this large-scale reduction in the spread of meltwater occurs primarily due to localized differences in ocean currents, which may be related to the coarseness of the horizontal resolution in the GCM. The high wind bias in the GCM is shown to have relatively little impact on the meltwater distribution, despite iceberg drift being typically dominated by the wind forcing. We find that this is due to compensating effects between faster drift under stronger winds and faster wind-driven wave erosion. These results may have implications for future changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation simulated with iceberg-enabled GCMs.

On the representation of capsizing in iceberg models

Abstract Although iceberg models have been used for decades, they have received far more widespread attention in recent years, due in part to efforts to explicitly represent icebergs in climate models. This calls for increased scrutiny of all aspects of typical iceberg models. An important component of iceberg models is the representation of iceberg capsizing, or rolling. Rolling occurs spontaneously when the ratio of iceberg width to height falls below a critical threshold. Here we examine previously proposed representations of this threshold, and we find that there have been crucial flaws in the representation of rolling in many modeling studies to date. We correct these errors and identify an accurate model representation of iceberg rolling. Next, we assess how iceberg rolling influences simulation results in a hierarchy of models. Rolling is found to substantially prolong the lifespan of individual icebergs and allow them to drift farther offshore. However, rolling occurs only after large icebergs have lost most of their initial volume, and it thus has a relatively small impact on the large-scale freshwater distribution in comprehensive model simulations. The results suggest that accurate representations of iceberg rolling may be of particular importance for operational forecast models of iceberg drift, as well as for regional changes in high-resolution climate model simulations.

Noise-based approximation to thermal spin-injection in Fe/GaAs

We analyze the prospects for thermal spin-injection from iron into gallium arsenide via the application of electrical noise. By estimating the applied effective temperature-equivalent gradients, we characterize the magnitude of any electrical part of the thermal spin-injection efficiency or the spin-dependent Seebeck effect. The magnitude of the non-local spin signal associated with this effect suggests that temperature differences on the order of ∼100 K would be needed for true thermal spin-injection experiments. The large size of the effective temperature gradients induced by the noise-based method means that even very small thermo-electric effects can be quantified.