Tim E. Carpenter

Health Survey of Backyard Poultry and Other Avian Species Located within One Mile of Commercial California Meat-Turkey Flocks

A survey was conducted to characterize domestic and exotic bird populations, estimate seroprevalence to selected disease agents, and describe health management practices on 62 premises containing backyard flocks located within one mile of 22 commercial California meat-turkey flocks participating in National Animal Health Monitoring System (NAHMS). Chickens were present on 56 backyard premises and turkeys on seven. Antibodies were identified against Mycoplasma gallisepticum, M. synoviae, M. meleagridis, Salmonella pullorum, Newcastle disease virus, avian encephalomyelitis virus, Bordetella avium, hemorrhagic enteritis virus, infectious bronchitis virus, and infectious bursal disease virus in 367 blood samples from 32 backyard premises. Twenty-two owners of backyard premises said they restricted visitor contact with their birds, and two required visitors to wear rubber boots and use boot disinfectant. Owners of seven premises used biologics and/or pharmaceutics for disease prevention. One family member worked on a commercial turkey ranch, but no other contact between owners, relatives, or employees and commercial poultry was reported.

Transmission of Pasteurella multocida on California turkey premises in 1988-89.

Restriction endonuclease analysis (REA) of whole-cell DNA was used to determine possible sources of Pasteurella multocida for each outbreak of fowl cholera occurring in turkey flocks in eight commercial poultry companies in California from October 1988 to September 1989. Over this period, 179 isolates of P. multocida were obtained from dead turkeys in 80 meat and breeder flocks on 43 premises. P. multocida was isolated from wildlife on five premises. Isolates were characterized by subspecies, serotype, presence of plasmid DNA, and REA type. In 52 (65%) flocks, all isolates of P. multocida had the same REA pattern as the M9 live vaccine strain following digestion of DNA with the restriction enzyme SmaI. Field strains of P. multocida were obtained from 27 (34%) flocks, and one flock (1%) yielded both M9 and a field strain of the organism. REA of field strains of P. multocida revealed 17 different SmaI REA types. Based on matching SmaI REA types, potential sources of P. multocida were identified for 15 of the 28 flocks infected with field strains of the organism, and transmission between turkey premises was a possibility in only seven flocks.

Using molecular epidemiology to track Toxoplasma gondii from terrestrial carnivores to marine hosts: implications for public health and conservation.

Background Environmental transmission of the zoonotic parasite Toxoplasma gondii, which is shed only by felids, poses risks to human and animal health in temperate and tropical ecosystems. Atypical T. gondii genotypes have been linked to severe disease in people and the threatened population of California sea otters. To investigate land-to-sea parasite transmission, we screened 373 carnivores (feral domestic cats, mountain lions, bobcats, foxes, and coyotes) for T. gondii infection and examined the distribution of genotypes in 85 infected animals sampled near the sea otter range. Methodology/Principal Findings Nested PCR-RFLP analyses and direct DNA sequencing at six independent polymorphic genetic loci (B1, SAG1, SAG3, GRA6, L358, and Apico) were used to characterize T. gondii strains in infected animals. Strains consistent with Type X, a novel genotype previously identified in over 70% of infected sea otters and four terrestrial wild carnivores along the California coast, were detected in all sampled species, including domestic cats. However, odds of Type X infection were 14 times higher (95% CI: 1.3–148.6) for wild felids than feral domestic cats. Type X infection was also linked to undeveloped lands (ORu200a=u200a22, 95% CI: 2.3–250.7). A spatial cluster of terrestrial Type II infection (Pu200a=u200a0.04) was identified in developed lands bordering an area of increased risk for sea otter Type II infection. Two spatial clusters of animals infected with strains consistent with Type X (P≤0.01) were detected in less developed landscapes. Conclusions Differences in T. gondii genotype prevalence among domestic and wild felids, as well as the spatial distribution of genotypes, suggest co-existing domestic and wild T. gondii transmission cycles that likely overlap at the interface of developed and undeveloped lands. Anthropogenic development driving contact between these cycles may increase atypical T. gondii genotypes in domestic cats and facilitate transmission of potentially more pathogenic genotypes to humans, domestic animals, and wildlife.

Toxoplasma gondii, Source to Sea: Higher Contribution of Domestic Felids to Terrestrial Parasite Loading Despite Lower Infection Prevalence

Environmental transmission of Toxoplasma gondii, a global zoonotic parasite, adversely impacts human and animal health. Toxoplasma is a significant cause of mortality in threatened Southern sea otters, which serve as sentinels for disease threats to people and animals in coastal environments. As wild and domestic felids are the only recognized hosts capable of shedding Toxoplasma oocysts into the environment, otter infection suggests land-to-sea pathogen transmission. To assess relative contributions to terrestrial parasite loading, we evaluated infection and shedding among managed and unmanaged feral domestic cats, mountain lions, and bobcats in coastal California, USA. Infection prevalence differed among sympatric felids, with a significantly lower prevalence for managed feral cats (17%) than mountain lions, bobcats, or unmanaged feral cats subsisting on wild prey (73–81%). A geographic hotspot of infection in felids was identified near Monterey Bay, bordering a high-risk site for otter infection. Increased odds of oocyst shedding were detected in bobcats and unmanaged feral cats. Due to their large populations, pet and feral domestic cats likely contribute more oocysts to lands bordering the sea otter range than native wild felids. Continued coastal development may influence felid numbers and distribution, increase terrestrial pathogens in freshwater runoff, and alter disease dynamics at the human–animal–environment interface.

Decision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control: objectives matter

Formal decision-analytic methods can be used to frame disease control problems, the first step of which is to define a clear and specific objective. We demonstrate the imperative of framing clearly-defined management objectives in finding optimal control actions for control of disease outbreaks. We illustrate an analysis that can be applied rapidly at the start of an outbreak when there are multiple stakeholders involved with potentially multiple objectives, and when there are also multiple disease models upon which to compare control actions. The output of our analysis frames subsequent discourse between policy-makers, modellers and other stakeholders, by highlighting areas of discord among different management objectives and also among different models used in the analysis. We illustrate this approach in the context of a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in Cumbria, UK using outputs from five rigorously-studied simulation models of FMD spread. We present both relative rankings and relative performance of controls within each model and across a range of objectives. Results illustrate how control actions change across both the base metric used to measure management success and across the statistic used to rank control actions according to said metric. This work represents a first step towards reconciling the extensive modelling work on disease control problems with frameworks for structured decision making.

Restriction endonuclease analysis of Pasteurella multocida isolates from three California turkey premises.

Three California turkey premises that had repeated outbreaks of fowl cholera were studied for periods of 2 to 4 years. Using biochemical, serologic, plasmid DNA, and restriction endonuclease analyses of isolates of Pasteurella multocida from turkeys and wildlife on the premises, strains of the organism were found to be enzootic on two of the premises. On the third, a variety of strains of P. multocida were isolated from fowl cholera outbreak flocks.

A spatial risk assessment of bighorn sheep extirpation by grazing domestic sheep on public lands

Bighorn sheep currently occupy just 30% of their historic distribution, and persist in populations less than 5% as abundant overall as their early 19th century counterparts. Present-day recovery of bighorn sheep populations is in large part limited by periodic outbreaks of respiratory disease, which can be transmitted to bighorn sheep via contact with domestic sheep grazing in their vicinity. In order to assess the viability of bighorn sheep populations on the Payette National Forest (PNF) under several alternative proposals for domestic sheep grazing, we developed a series of interlinked models. Using telemetry and habitat data, we characterized herd home ranges and foray movements of bighorn sheep from their home ranges. Combining foray model movement estimates with known domestic sheep grazing areas (allotments), a Risk of Contact Model estimated bighorn sheep contact rates with domestic sheep allotments. Finally, we used demographic and epidemiologic data to construct population and disease transmission models (Disease Model), which we used to estimate bighorn sheep persistence under each alternative grazing scenario. Depending on the probability of disease transmission following interspecies contact, extirpation probabilities for the seven bighorn sheep herds examined here ranged from 20% to 100%. The Disease Model allowed us to assess the probabilities that varied domestic sheep management scenarios would support persistent populations of free-ranging bighorn sheep.

Coastal development and precipitation drive pathogen flow from land to sea: evidence from a Toxoplasma gondii and felid host system

Rapidly developing coastal regions face consequences of land use and climate change including flooding and increased sediment, nutrient, and chemical runoff, but these forces may also enhance pathogen runoff, which threatens human, animal, and ecosystem health. Using the zoonotic parasite Toxoplasma gondii in California, USA as a model for coastal pathogen pollution, we examine the spatial distribution of parasite runoff and the impacts of precipitation and development on projected pathogen delivery to the ocean. Oocysts, the extremely hardy free-living environmental stage of T. gondii shed in faeces of domestic and wild felids, are carried to the ocean by freshwater runoff. Linking spatial pathogen loading and transport models, we show that watersheds with the highest levels of oocyst runoff align closely with regions of increased sentinel marine mammal T. gondii infection. These watersheds are characterized by higher levels of coastal development and larger domestic cat populations. Increases in coastal development and precipitation independently raised oocyst delivery to the ocean (average increases of 44% and 79%, respectively), but dramatically increased parasite runoff when combined (175% average increase). Anthropogenic changes in landscapes and climate can accelerate runoff of diverse pathogens from terrestrial to aquatic environments, influencing transmission to people, domestic animals, and wildlife.

Risk factors for foot-and-mouth disease in Zambia, 1981-2012.

The aim of this study was to describe the spatial distribution of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in Zambia for the period January 1981-December 2012 and to quantify the association between geographical features (proximity to roads, national parks, wetland areas) and the spatial distribution of FMD using a Poisson point process model. Details of FMD outbreaks retrieved from the Zambian Department of Veterinary and Livestock Development included the date of onset of clinical signs and the name of the ward in which the index case enterprise was located. A total of 62 FMD outbreaks occurred throughout the study period. Outbreaks occurred in the south of the Southern province along the border with Namibia and Botswana (n=5), in the Western province (n=2), in the Southern and Central provinces on the Kafue flood plains (n=44), and in the north east of the country close to the border with Tanzania (n=11). Increases in distance to the nearest major international border crossing, distance to the nearest major road, distance to the wetland area of the Kafue flood plain, wetness index and elevation were all associated with a decrease in FMD-outbreak ward intensity. Our analyses support the hypothesis that in drier areas of the country cattle are more likely to aggregate around communal drinking pools. Aggregation of cattle provides conditions suitable for FMD spread and detection.

Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support Emergency Disease Management.

Epidemiological models in animal health are commonly used as decision-support tools to understand the impact of various control actions on infection spread in susceptible populations. Different models contain different assumptions and parameterizations, and policy decisions might be improved by considering outputs from multiple models. However, a transparent decision-support framework to integrate outputs from multiple models is nascent in epidemiology. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making integrate the outputs of multiple models, compare policy actions and support policy decision-making. We briefly review the epidemiological application of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making and illustrate the potential of these methods using foot and mouth disease (FMD) models. In case study one, we apply structured decision-making to compare five possible control actions across three FMD models and show which control actions and outbreak costs are robustly supported and which are impacted by model uncertainty. In case study two, we develop a methodology for weighting the outputs of different models and show how different weighting schemes may impact the choice of control action. Using these case studies, we broadly illustrate the potential of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making in epidemiology to provide better information for decision-making and outline necessary development of these methods for their further application.