Tim Nelson

Australian residential solar feed-in tariffs: Industry stimulus or regressive form of taxation?

Feed-in Tariffs (FiT) for residential photovoltaic solar technologies are available in most Australian jurisdictions. Financial incentives under FiT are in addition to those provided by the Small-Scale Renewable Energy Scheme which forms part of the national 20% Renewable Energy Target. Little attention has been paid to the welfare impacts of FiT on retail electricity prices and social policy objectives. Our analysis indicates that current FiT are a regressive form of taxation. By providing estimates of household impact by income groupings, we conclude that wealthier households are beneficiaries and the effective taxation rate for low income households is three times higher than that paid by the wealthiest households.

Queensland Solar Feed-In Tariffs and the Merit-Order Effect: Economic Benefit, or Regressive Taxation and Wealth Transfers?

Premium residential solar feed-in tariffs have come under considerable scrutiny in Australia over the past 12 months following a sharp rise in the uptake of subsidised PV units and subsidy cost blow-outs. Using New South Wales data, Nelson, Simshauser and Kelley (2011) demonstrated that the inherent design of premium ‘gross’ feed-in tariffs are regressive in nature and required reform. Since the publication of that article in Economic Analysis & Policy (September 2011 edition), feed-in tariff policies have been substantially wound back in all Australian jurisdictions except Queensland. In this article, we examine the ‘net’ feed-in tariff in Queensland and similarly find it to be a regressive form of taxation. We also examine the so-called ‘merit order effect’ – a purported ‘economic benefit’ arising from premium feed-in tariffs. However, the evidence is clear that merit order effects must, by definition, be transient and above all, are not welfare enhancing.

The second‐round effects of carbon taxes on power project finance

Purpose - The most problematic area of any carbon policy debate is the treatment of incumbent CO2 intensive coal-fired electricity generators. Policy applied to the electricity sector is rarely well guided by macroeconomic theory and modeling alone, especially in the case of carbon where the impacts are concentrated, involve a small number of firms and an essential service. The purpose of this paper is to examine the consequences of poor climate change policy development on the efficiency of capital markets within the Australian electricity sector. Design/methodology/approach - The authors conducted a survey of Australian project finance professionals to determine the risk profiles to be applied to the electricity sector, in the event a poorly-designed climate change policy is adopted. Findings - The Australian case study finds that if zero compensation results in the financial distress of project financed coal generators, finance costs for all plant rises, including new gas and renewables, leading to unnecessary increases in electricity prices. Accordingly, an unambiguous case for providing structural adjustment assistance to coal generators exists on the grounds of economic efficiency. Originality/value - Accordingly, the paper shows that an unambiguous case for providing structural adjustment assistance to coal generators exists, on the grounds of economic efficiency.

Improving Australian greenhouse gas reporting and financial analysis of carbon risk associated with investments

Purpose – Climate change policies such as carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes are being developed and implemented in ways which fundamentally transform the profitability of industries and businesses. While mandatory reporting of greenhouse gas emissions by individual Australian companies is now largely standardised, the financial implications of emissions trading and other forms of climate change policy are poorly understood. This paper aims to discuss these issues.Design/methodology/approach – A literature review was conducted of financial analyst research on this issue and determined that this poor understanding is the result of either insufficient information being available to adequately evaluate the risk to business or a lack of understanding about how carbon policies will impact on business.Findings – This paper proposes a “checklist” for evaluation of the risks and opportunities created by pricing carbon to address this analytical chasm. Most importantly, like any significant tax reform, the...

The Changing Nature of the Australian Electricity Industry

The electricity supply industry has historically offered a homogenous good supplied via economically regulated transmission and distribution networks. Competition was introduced into the contestable generation and retail supply chain components as part of the 1990s Hilmer reform process. After a century of incremental technological developments, the industry is now being transformed by new distributed energy technologies and a global focus on reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Policy-makers did not anticipate these changes. A number of key reforms are likely to be required. These include: assessing whether the return on capital provided to network operators is appropriate given changing economic conditions; determining the role of competition in the provision of “behind the meter” energy services; and integration of climate change policy with wholesale energy market design.

From Throughput to Access Fees: The Future of Network and Retail Tariffs

This chapter critically evaluates how utilities will need to adjust their tariff structures to compete with new forms of energy production. The structure of these tariffs will be a critical determinant of the success or failure of utilities in the future. The authors assess existing and emerging tariff designs to address the advent of grid-connected substitutes such as distributed generation. The economic efficiency and equity implications of changing tariff designs are assessed based on existing and emerging technologies. The chapter concludes that utilities must be cautious in rapidly redesigning their business models or rebalancing their tariffs, as they attempt to recover revenue previously obtained through rising volumetric consumption. Importantly, adjusting tariffs to recover revenues in the short term may hasten the adoption of energy storage technologies, further undermining the financial stability of utilities in the long term.

Access Rights and Consumer Protections in a Distributed Energy System

Abstract Within Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM), distributed technologies are delivering energy in ways that were not contemplated when regulations governing consumer rights and protections were developed. The adoption of technologies, such as rooftop solar, battery storage, electric vehicles, and virtual power plants will give rise to an increasingly heterogeneous mix of electricity customers who will expect their utilities to cater for their individual preferences. Over time, the types of grid services that are considered to be “essential” may evolve, leading to redefined and technology-neutral access rights for electricity infrastructure. Consumer protection frameworks will need to balance innovation and consumer choice with universal access to electricity supply.

Role of Utility and Pricing in the Transition

Pricing grid and nongrid services will be a key determinant in how successfully utilities navigate coexistence with embedded generation and storage. This chapter assesses how utilities are responding to this challenge in Australia. Australia has some of the highest uptake rates of distributed generation in the world and until recently, the response of utilities has been slow. The analysis suggests that a reliable supply of electricity will be of significant value to consumers. Utilities are likely to offer a diverse range of products, such as solar leasing, demand tariffs, and storage that reflect the “insurance premium” consumers place on reliability.

Decarbonisation and wholesale electricity market design

In recent decades, many power systems have introduced electricity generator competition. Market designs have varied with some countries adopting ‘energy‐only’ markets and others utilising capacity remuneration mechanisms. With increasing deployment of cost competitive renewable energy and the introduction of policy measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, concerns are emerging about the sustainability of these market designs. In Australia, wholesale electricity prices have increased markedly – the result of a ‘disorderly’ transition away from coal to new renewable energy. This paper critically examines the ‘energy‐only’ market in a high‐penetration renewables system, with a particular focus on the vertically and horizontally restructured National Electricity Market (NEM). We propose that the ‘energy‐only’ market can indeed work within a decarbonised energy system. But as renewables increasingly replace coal‐fired power stations, ‘unintended consequences’ will need to be addressed to facilitate an ‘orderly’ transition. It will be important that policy ensures appropriate new investment in firm capacity is forthcoming; and pricing outcomes are acceptable given political economy constraints.

Foreign aid via 3-Party Covenant Financings of capital-intensive infrastructure

Purpose - The purpose of this article is to analyse electricity supply in the Solomon Islands face extraordinarily expensive electricity tariffs – currently set at 96 c/kWh – making them amongst the highest in the world. Power is supplied by a fleet of diesel generators reliant on imported liquid fuels. In this article, the authors model the 14,100 kW power system on the island of Guadalcanal and demonstrate that by investing in a combination of hydroelectric and solar photovoltaic generating capacity, power system costs and reliability can be improved marginally. However, when the authors model a 3-Party Covenant (3PC) Financing structure involving a credit wrap by the Commonwealth of Australia, electricity production costs fall by 50 per cent, thus resulting in meaningful increases in consumer welfare. Design/methodology/approach - This study’s approach uses an integrated levelised cost of electricity model and dynamic partial equilibrium power system model. Doing so enables the authors to quickly analyse the rich blend of fixed, variable and sunk costs of generating technology options. The authors also focus on the cost of capital that is likely to be achieved under various policy settings. Findings - The authors find that a 3PC Financing policy can substantially reduce the production costs associated with capital-intensive power projects in an unrated sovereign nation. Such a policy and associated prescriptions are not specific to the Solomon Islands or power generation. The conceptual framework and associated financial logic that underpins the initiative can be generalised to other “user pays” infrastructure projects and to other developing nations. The broad applicability of 3PC financing means that it is not country specific, project specific or asset class specific. Research Limitations/implications - It is important to note that the analysis in this paper has a number of limitations in that the authors do not deal with rural electrification or distribution network costs. The focus of this paper is to identify policy interventions that are capable of making profound changes to the cost and the reliability of wholesale electricity production. Originality/value - The focus of this paper is to identify a policy intervention capable of making profound changes to the cost and the reliability of wholesale electricity production. While there is nothing novel associated with a 3PC Financing