Tim Ryley

Estimating Cycling Demand for the Journey to Work or Study in West Edinburgh, Scotland

Recent transport policy favors cycling, yet it remains to be seen, in a car-dependent society, whether individuals will increase the amount they cycle. With Edinburgh, Scotland, as a case study, discrete choice models, based on random utility theory and using stated preference data, were developed to determine the propensity to cycle and provide an estimate of cycling demand. The data are from a survey of 997 households in West Edinburgh. Respondents in employment or education were split into population segments according to their propensity to cycle. The survey includes a cycling-based stated preference experiment for those traveling to work or study by car, by bus, or on foot. The study is novel in considering the population as a whole, instead of focusing on cyclists, with the modeling results split by population segments. Model estimation shows that cyclist facilities, primarily at the destination but also en route, largely determine the propensity to cycle to work or study.

Improving the quality of demand forecasts through cross nested logit: a stated choice case study of airport, airline and access mode choice

Airport choice models have been used extensively in recent years to assist the transport planning in large metropolitan areas. However, these studies have typically focussed solely on airports within a given metropolitan area, at a time when passengers are increasingly willing to travel further to access airports. This article presents the findings of a study that uses broader, regional data from the East Coast of the United States collected through a stated choice based air travel survey. The study makes use of a cross-nested logit structure that allows for the joint representation of inter-alternative correlation along the three choice dimensions of airport, airline and access mode choice. The analysis not only shows significant gains in model fit when moving to this more advanced nesting structure, but the more appropriate cross-elasticity assumptions also lead to more intuitively correct substitution patterns in forecasting examples.

Public Engagement on Aviation Taxes in the United Kingdom

ABSTRACT The acceptability of existing and potential future aviation taxes in the United Kingdom is explored using a focus group methodology. Focus group participants preferred an independently managed and accountable trust fund to use aviation tax for environmental improvements over the current Air Passenger Duty system. In terms of where additional aviation tax revenues should be spent, there was greatest support for improving United Kingdom surface transport and developing aircraft technology. Participants were tentatively supportive of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme, although would like to see companies within the scheme striving for maximum carbon reductions.

Chapter 10 A Behavioural Perspective on the Relationship Between Transport and Climate Change

Purpose – To provide a behavioural perspective on the relationship between transport and climate change. Methodology/approach – The factors influencing travel behaviour and the elements critical to behaviour formation are reviewed. The importance of behaviour change measures to reduce the impact of transport on climate change, and the application of behaviour change measures to increase the sustainability of transport, are examined. Findings – There have been a range of travel behaviour measures implemented, such as individualised marketing programmes and travel plans, which have demonstrated some behavioural change impacts, in turn affecting climate change emissions, although they tend to be localised and small-scale. Social implications – There is a real challenge to encourage individuals within society to exhibit more sustainable travel behaviour. Originality/value – A range of behavioural issues still need to be resolved in terms of the relationship between transport and climate change, including a need to influence attitudes, to bridge the gaps between attitudes and both behaviour and intention, to make an impact at points of transition for individuals, to use cognitive dissonance as a way of harnessing social norms, and to understand more fully social pressure and group influence.

Chapter 3 An International Dimension: Aviation

Purpose – To examine the relationship between aviation and climate change, and the international dimensions of air transport. Methodology/approach – A review of aviations impacts on the global climate, mitigation strategies to reduce this impact, and the possible consequences of climate change for commercial aviation. Findings – Although a range of mitigation measures have been developed and implemented to reduce aircraft emissions in the short term, with some environmental benefit, there is a real need for the aviation sector to identify the possible impacts of climate change on air travel operations, both to aircraft in flight and to operations at airports. A further challenge will be to devise adaptation plans that will address the vulnerabilities and thus ensure safe aviation-related operations. Social implications – The climate change impacts of aviation will adversely affect society. In addition, some individuals may have to reduce or stop flying as a result of increased taxes and legislation implemented in response to climate change. Originality/value of paper – There is a novel focus on the adaptation challenges for the aviation industry in response to climate change.

Chapter 14 Conclusions

Due to the more pressing need, the majority of material in this book has dealt with mitigation; interventions to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (IPCC, 2001) away from a scenario of ‘business as usual’. An early academic review on climate change mitigation and transport appeared in 2007 (Chapman, 2007), a year before the United Kingdom committed itself to the highly ambitious Climate Change Act 2008. The final act sought an ambitious 80% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Although criticised in this book as being unrealistic, this is the level of intervention required if ‘dangerous’ climate change is to be avoided (defined as greater than 2°C rise in global temperatures). As Chapter 8 (a policy perspective) explains, such targets, however unrealistic, are informed by considerable input from expert opinion (e.g. Delphi studies) and require a detailed knowledge of current emissions as well as accurate predictions/scenarios of future emissions. For this reason, scenarios and the control of uncertainty were discussed in Chapter 2 towards the start of this book. Indeed, the commonly quoted ‘business as usual’ scenario is in itself too simplistic and highly improbable, not only due to mitigation measures imposed by governments, but also because of the future scarcity of oil which will force change in the medium term regardless. Backcasting is the key tool used to model the continuum of socio-economic scenarios which exist between ‘business as usual’ and the equally unlikely case of all targets being met. However, the science is inherently difficult and the end result is a wide range of permutations and storylines, largely dependent on mitigation. Early progress towards the 80% target has not been promising, but the decarbonisation of the transport sector is still seen as key in meeting the demands of the Climate Change Act 2008. There is a need to tackle the three primary culprits of greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector: aviation, freight and car ownership (Chapman, 2007). This book has examined in detail how this could be achieved in all these sectors using a range of aspects relating to technological and behavioural change.

The Influence of Knowledge and Persuasion on the Decision to Adopt or Reject Alternative Fuel Vehicles

Alternative fuel vehicles, such as battery electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, support the imperative to decarbonise the transport sector, but are not yet at a stage in their development where they can successfully compete with conventional fuel vehicles. This paper examines the influence of knowledge and persuasion on the decision to adopt or reject alternative fuel vehicles, a novel and original application of Rogers’ Theory of Diffusion of Innovations. A household questionnaire survey was undertaken with respondents in the Sutton Coldfield suburb of the United Kingdom city of Birmingham. This suburb was previously identified as having a strong spatial cluster of potential early adopters of alternative fuel vehicles. The survey results provide some useful empirical insights around the issues pertaining to the wider adoption of alternative fuel vehicles, even though the data is a bit dated as the survey was conducted in 2013. It is confirmed that respondents have limited knowledge of alternative fuel vehicles and perceptions have led to the development of negative attitudes towards them. The reasons largely relate to three problems: purchase price, limited range and poor infrastructure availability. Most respondents passively rejected alternative fuel vehicles, which confirms that a concerted effort is required to inform the general public about the benefits alternative fuel vehicles.

Competition Between Asian Network Airlines and Low-Cost Carriers: Strategic Analysis

Asia Pacific is increasingly at the forefront of world aviation, and low-cost carriers (LCCs) there now have 26% of all seats. This amount rises to 57% in Southeast Asia and 56% in South Asia. Clearly, Asian network airlines are very exposed to LCCs, and there are many consequences, such as lower financial performance from inadequately meeting the expectations of customers, offering insufficient value for money, and customer dissatisfaction. It is crucial that Asian network airlines respond expeditiously and appropriately to LCCs. This paper looks at the strategic capability of 22 Asian network airlines in competing with LCCs on the basis of analyzing questionnaire data from these airlines with respect to the level of importance and difficulty of 37 competitive responses across six response categories. Fundamentally, this paper concerns only their capability in competing with LCCs and does not consider their overall strength. This paper also identifies the importance and difficulty of all 37 responses and how the response categories vary by airline, while linking strategic capability with profit margins. The results show that strategic capability varies widely, with Vietnam Airlines possessing the strongest strategic capability and SilkAir, the weakest. Of airlines that compete heavily with LCCs, Garuda Indonesia has strong capability, while Thai Airways and Philippine Airlines do not. For all 22 Asian network airlines, quickly introducing changes, leveraging brand strength, and increasing aircraft use are the most important responses, and there is a reasonably strong correlation between strategic capability and margin, suggesting that those airlines with strong capabilities should achieve higher margins.

An investigation into the feasibility of increasing rail use as an alternative to the car

With rail travel largely seen to be a more sustainable method than road-based transport, this paper examines the market segments amongst existing motorists that would be most likely to travel by train in the UK. The analysis is based on a large survey in London and the south-east of England, the area surrounding the routes operated by the train company First Capital Connect. Findings show that train travellers tend to be middle-aged and of a higher social grade, typically taking commuting or business trips. Individuals living within four miles of a station are considerably more likely to travel by rail than those further away. Given the competition from road-based transport, it is of particular interest that the measure highlighted to increase rail use for those living further away from the rail network is to enhance car parking at train stations.

Aviation and Climate Change. Lessons for European Policy

Given the growing concerns surrounding climate change and the difficulties in reducing aviation-related emissions, this detailed and well-argued book explores the barriers and opportunities relating to an absolute emissions reduction in the aviation sector. It usefully synthesises Tyndall Centre climate change research on aviation, and is part of a Routledge series on physical geography and environment. After a logical and well-signposted introduction, Chapter 2 is an appropriate, informative chart of previous air travel growth and future-predicted demand, at various spatial scales. A range of uncertainties are rightly acknowledged; not only the nature of demand forecasts but also those surrounding non-carbon dioxide emissions and the radiative forcing effects of aviation. Chapter 3, on climate change and cumulative emissions, provides an informative account of the scientific understanding of the twin processes of climate sensitivity and carbon-cycle feedbacks, further aspects of uncertainty. In the context of a 28C global temperature rise target at respective global, European Union (EU) and UK scales, the authors rightly suggest that a more urgent response is required from policymakers. Chapter 4 examines a range of technological (e.g. engine improvements, airframe design) and operational developments available to the aviation industry. A pertinent finding from this review is that these opportunities for aviation are limited, as any improvements will be out-weighed by the increase in passengerkilometres flown. Climate and aviation policy (Chapter 5) is reviewed across the various scales from the global Kyoto Protocol to the national UK-level Air Passenger Duty example. Of the policy tools presented, the EU Emissions Trading Scheme appears to be the most likely to reduce aviation-related carbon emissions, albeit when aviation is incorporated into the scheme. Logical and straight-forward aviation emissions scenario analysis, in Chapter 6, at both EU and UK levels, brings together the previous review chapters, and usefully demonstrates the need for more radical aviation-related carbon intensity improvements. Given the requirement for other economic sectors to compensate for aviation-related emissions, which are predicted to consume a significant amount of the carbon budget by 2050 (in some cases the entire allowance), Chapter 7 appropriately extends the scenarios analysis to assess how aviation performs in the wider energy context. The analysis demonstrates that aviation will become a dominant carbon-emitting sector by 2050. In a brief conclusion chapter, which could have been expanded to discuss further the Transport Reviews, Vol. 32, No. 1, 137–138, January 2012