Timothy Adair

Cause-of-death ascertainment for deaths that occur outside hospitals in Thailand: Application of verbal autopsy methods

BackgroundAscertainment of cause for deaths that occur in the absence of medical attention is a significant problem in many countries, including Thailand, where more than 50% of such deaths are registered with ill-defined causes. Routine implementation of standardized, rigorous verbal autopsy methods is a potential solution. This paper reports findings from field research conducted to develop, test, and validate the use of verbal autopsy (VA) methods in Thailand.MethodsInternational verbal autopsy methods were first adapted to the Thai context and then implemented to ascertain causes of death for a nationally representative sample of 11,984 deaths that occurred in Thailand in 2005. Causes of death were derived from completed VA questionnaires by physicians trained in ICD-based cause-of-death certification. VA diagnoses were validated in the sample of hospital deaths for which reference diagnoses were available from medical record review. Validated study findings were used to adjust VA-based causes of death derived for deaths in the study sample that had occurred outside hospitals. Results were used to estimate cause-specific mortality patterns for deaths outside hospitals in Thailand in 2005.ResultsVA-based causes of death were derived for 6,328 out of 7,340 deaths in the study sample that had occurred outside hospitals, constituting the verification arm of the study. The use of VA resulted in large-scale reassignment of deaths from ill-defined categories to specific causes of death. The validation study identified that VA tends to overdiagnose important causes such as diabetes, liver cancer, and tuberculosis, while undercounting deaths from HIV/AIDS, liver diseases, genitourinary (essential renal), and digestive system disorders.ConclusionsThe use of standard VA methods adapted to Thailand enabled a plausible assessment of cause-specific mortality patterns and a substantial reduction of ill-defined diagnoses. Validation studies enhance the utility of findings from the application of verbal autopsy. Regular implementation of VA in Thailand could accelerate development of the quality and utility of vital registration data for deaths outside hospitals.

Mortality patterns in Vietnam, 2006: Findings from a national verbal autopsy survey

BackgroundAccurate nationally representative statistics on total and cause-specific mortality in Vietnam are lacking due to incomplete capture in government reporting systems. This paper presents total and cause-specific mortality results from a national verbal autopsy survey conducted first time in Vietnam in conjunction with the annual population change survey and discusses methodological and logistical challenges associated with the implementation of a nation-wide assessment of mortality based on surveys.Verbal autopsy interviews, using the WHO standard questionnaire, were conducted with close relatives of the 6798 deaths identified in the 2007 population change survey in Vietnam. Data collectors were health staff recruited from the commune health station who undertook 3-day intensive training on VA interview. The Preston-Coale method assessed the level of completeness of mortality reporting from the population change survey. The number of deaths in each age-sex grouping is inflated according to the estimate of completeness to produce an adjusted number of deaths. Underlying causes of death were aggregated to the International Classification of Diseases Mortality Tabulation List 1. Leading causes of death were tabulated by sex for three broad age groups: 0-14 years; 15-59 years; and 60 years and above.FindingsCompleteness of mortality reporting was 69% for males and 54% for females with substantial regional variation. The use of VA has resulted in 10% of deaths being classified to ill-defined among males, and 15% among females. More ill-defined deaths were reported among the 60 year or above age group. Incomplete death reporting, wide geographical dispersal of deaths, extensive travel between households, and substantial variation in local responses to VA interviews challenged the implementation of a national mortality and cause of death assessment based on surveys.ConclusionsVerbal autopsy can be a viable tool to identify cause of death in Vietnam. However logistical challenges limit its use in conjunction with the national sample survey. Sentinel population clusters for mortality surveillance should be tested to develop an effective and sustainable option for routine mortality and cause of death data collection in Vietnam.

Unmet need for contraception among HIV-positive women in Lesotho and implications for mother-to-child transmission.

In Lesotho, the risk of mother-to-child-transmission (MTCT) of HIV is substantial; women of childbearing age have a high HIV prevalence rate (26.4%), low knowledge of HIV status and a total fertility rate of 3.5 births per woman. An effective means of preventing MTCT is to reduce unwanted fertility. This paper examines the unmet need for contraception to limit and space births among HIV-positive women in Lesotho aged 15-49 years, using the 2004 Lesotho Demographic and Health Survey. HIV-positive women have their need for contraception unmet in almost one-third of cases, and multivariate analysis reveals this unmet need is most likely amongst the poor and amongst those not approving of family planning. Urgent action is needed to lower the level of unmet need and reduce MTCT. A constructive strategy is to improve access to family planning for all women in Lesotho, irrespective of HIV status, and, more specifically, integrate family planning with MTCT prevention and voluntary counselling and testing services.

Changes in certification of diabetes with cardiovascular diseases increased reported diabetes mortality in Australia and the United States.

OBJECTIVE This paper seeks to better understand diabetes-related mortality in Australia and the United States through analysis of the impact of certification practices of diabetes as a multiple cause of death, specifically with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING Vital registration multiple cause of death data in Australia and the United States since 1999 are used to examine trends in the ratio of diabetes reported in Part I (underlying cause) and Part II (associated cause) of the death certificate, when CVDs are also reported. RESULTS Underlying cause of death (UCOD) statistics mask the magnitude of diabetes-related mortality. In both countries, since 1999 there has been an increase in the ratio of diabetes deaths in Part I vs. Part II where CVD deaths, including ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular diseases, are also reported. In Australia, diabetes reported as an UCOD would be 12% lower in 2006 if the ratio from 1999 was applied. CONCLUSION The increasing likelihood of physicians to report diabetes in Part I reflects the subjectivity of diabetes death certification. There is a need for specific guidelines on death certification of diabetes with cardiovascular conditions, relating to its reporting as an underlying or associated cause.

HIV status and age at first marriage among women in Cameroon.

Recent research has highlighted the risk of HIV infection for married teenage women compared with their unmarried counterparts (Clark, 2004). This study assesses whether a relationship exists, for women who have completed their adolescence (age 20-29 years), between HIV status with age at first marriage and the length of time between first sex and first marriage. Multivariate analysis utilizing the nationally representative 2004 Cameroon Demographic and Health Survey shows that late-marrying women and those with a longer period of pre-marital sex have the highest risk of HIV. Although women in urban areas overall marry later than their rural counterparts, the positive relationship between age at marriage and HIV risk is stronger in rural areas. The higher wealth status and greater number of lifetime sexual partners of late-marrying women contribute to their higher HIV risk. Given that the age at first marriage and the gap between first marriage and first sex have increased in recent years, focusing preventive efforts on late-marrying women will be of much importance in reducing HIV prevalence among females.

Utility of local health registers in measuring perinatal mortality: a case study in rural Indonesia.

BackgroundPerinatal mortality is an important indicator of obstetric and newborn care services. Although the vast majority of global perinatal mortality is estimated to occur in developing countries, there is a critical paucity of reliable data at the local level to inform health policy, plan health care services, and monitor their impact. This paper explores the utility of information from village health registers to measure perinatal mortality at the sub district level in a rural area of Indonesia.MethodsA retrospective pregnancy cohort for 2007 was constructed by triangulating data from antenatal care, birth, and newborn care registers in a sample of villages in three rural sub districts in Central Java, Indonesia. For each pregnancy, birth outcome and first week survival were traced and recorded from the different registers, as available. Additional local death records were consulted to verify perinatal mortality, or identify deaths not recorded in the health registers. Analyses were performed to assess data quality from registers, and measure perinatal mortality rates. Qualitative research was conducted to explore knowledge and practices of village midwives in register maintenance and reporting of perinatal mortality.ResultsField activities were conducted in 23 villages, covering a total of 1759 deliveries that occurred in 2007. Perinatal mortality outcomes were 23 stillbirths and 15 early neonatal deaths, resulting in a perinatal mortality rate of 21.6 per 1000 live births in 2007. Stillbirth rates for the study population were about four times the rates reported in the routine Maternal and Child Health program information system. Inadequate awareness and supervision, and alternate workload were cited by local midwives as factors resulting in inconsistent data reporting.ConclusionsLocal maternal and child health registers are a useful source of information on perinatal mortality in rural Indonesia. Suitable training, supervision, and quality control, in conjunction with computerisation to strengthen register maintenance can provide routine local area measures of perinatal mortality for health policy, and monitoring of newborn care interventions. Similar efforts are required to strengthen routine health data in all developing countries, to guide planned progress towards reduction in the local, national and international burden from perinatal mortality.

Trends in oral, pharyngeal and oesophageal cancer mortality in Australia: the comparative importance of tobacco, alcohol and other risk factors

Objective: The relationship of long‐term population‐level trends in oral, pharyngeal and oesophageal cancer mortality with major risk factors such as tobacco consumption have not been statistically analysed in Australia. We have demonstrated the long‐term implications using historical data.

Mortality in Central Java: results from the indonesian mortality registration system strengthening project

BackgroundMortality statistics from death registration systems are essential for health policy and development. Indonesia has recently mandated compulsory death registration across the entire country in December 2006. This article describes the methods and results from activities to ascertain causes of registered deaths in two pilot registration areas in Central Java during 2006-2007. The methods involved several steps, starting with adaptation of international standards for reporting causes of registered deaths for implementation in two sites, Surakarta (urban) and Pekalongan (rural). Causes for hospital deaths were certified by attending physicians. Verbal autopsies were used for home deaths. Underlying causes were coded using ICD-10. Completeness of registration was assessed in a sample of villages and urban wards by triangulating data from the health sector, the civil registration system, and an independent household survey. Finally, summary mortality indicators and cause of death rankings were developed for each site.FindingsA total of 10,038 deaths were registered in the two sites during 2006-2007; yielding annual crude death rates of 5.9 to 6.8 per 1000. Data completeness was higher in rural areas (72.5%) as compared to urban areas (52%). Adjusted life expectancies at birth were higher for both males and females in the urban population as compared to the rural population. Stroke, ischaemic heart disease and chronic respiratory disease are prominent causes in both populations. Other important causes are diabetes and cancer in urban areas; and tuberculosis and diarrhoeal diseases in rural areas.ConclusionsNon-communicable diseases cause a significant proportion of premature mortality in Central Java. Implementing cause of death reporting in conjunction with death registration appears feasible in Indonesia. Better collaboration between health and registration sectors is required to improve data quality. These are the first local mortality measures for health policy and monitoring in Indonesia. Strong demand for data from different stakeholders can stimulate further strengthening of mortality registration systems.

100 years of mortality due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Australia: the role of tobacco consumption

BACKGROUND Global studies of the long-term association between tobacco consumption and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have relied upon descriptions of trends. OBJECTIVES To statistically analyse the relationship of tobacco consumption with data on mortality due to COPD over the past 100 years in Australia. METHODS Tobacco consumption was reconstructed back to 1887. Log-linear Poisson regression models were used to analyse cumulative cohort and lagged time-specific smoking data and its relationship with COPD mortality. RESULTS Age-standardised COPD mortality, although likely misclassified with other diseases, decreased for males and females from 1907 until the start of the Second World War in contrast to steadily rising tobacco consumption. Thereafter, COPD mortality rose sharply in line with trends in smoking, peaking in the early 1970s for males and over 20 years later for females, before falling again. Regression models revealed both cumulative and time-specific tobacco consumption to be strongly predictive of COPD mortality, with a time lag of 15 years for males and 20 years for females. CONCLUSIONS Sharp falls in COPD mortality before the Second World War were unrelated to tobacco consumption. Smoking was the primary driver of post-War trends, and the success of anti-smoking campaigns has sharply reduced COPD mortality levels.

Using Historical Vital Statistics to Predict the Distribution of Under-Five Mortality by Cause

Background: Cause-specific mortality data is essential for planning intervention programs to reduce mortality in the under age five years population (under-five). However, there is a critical paucity of such information for most of the developing world, particularly where progress towards the United Nations Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) has been slow. This paper presents a predictive cause of death model for under-five mortality based on historical vital statistics and discusses the utility of the model in generating information that could accelerate progress towards MDG 4. Methods: Over 1400 country years of vital statistics from 34 countries collected over a period of nearly a century were analyzed to develop relationships between levels of under-five mortality, related mortality ratios, and proportionate mortality from four cause groups: perinatal conditions; diarrhea and lower respiratory infections; congenital anomalies; and all other causes of death. A system of multiple equations with cross-equation parameter restrictions and correlated error terms was developed to predict proportionate mortality by cause based on given measures of under-five mortality. The strength of the predictive model was tested through internal and external cross-validation techniques. Modeled cause-specific mortality estimates for major regions in Africa, Asia, Central America, and South America are presented to illustrate its application across a range of under-five mortality rates. Results: Consistent and plausible trends and relationships are observed from historical data. High mortality rates are associated with increased proportions of deaths from diarrhea and lower respiratory infections. Perinatal conditions assume importance as a proportionate cause at under-five mortality rates below 60 per 1000 live births. Internal and external validation confirms strength and consistency of the predictive model. Model application at regional level demonstrates heterogeneity and non-linearity in cause-composition arising from the range of under-five mortality rates and related mortality ratios. Conclusions: Historical analyses suggest that under-five mortality transitions are associated with significant changes in cause of death composition. Sub-national differentials in under-five mortality rates could require intervention programs targeted to address specific cause distributions. The predictive model could, therefore, help set broad priorities for interventions at the local level based on periodic under-five mortality measurement. Given current resource constraints, such priority setting mechanisms are essential to accelerate reductions in under-five mortality.