Timothy C. Earle

Perception of risk: the influence of general trust, and general confidence

The influence of trust and confidence as personality traits on the perception of various hazards was examined. The distinction between trust and confidence is a key element of certain theories of co‐operation, but this dual‐mode approach has had little impact on empirical studies. General trust is the belief that other people can be relied on. General confidence is the conviction that everything is under control, and uncertainty is low. It was hypothesized that general trust and general confidence negatively influence risk perception. The hypothesis was tested using data from a random sample of 388 persons living in Switzerland. High levels of trust and confidence reduced perceived risks, compared with low levels of trust and confidence. Age was positively correlated with perceived risk. Gender was a significant predictor for technological hazards, but not for non‐technological hazards. Females perceived more risks than males. Results provide strong evidence for the hypothesis that general trust and general confidence have an impact on the perception of new technologies. Practical implications of the results are discussed.

Trust in Risk Management: A Model-Based Review of Empirical Research

This review of studies of trust in risk management was designed, in part, to examine the relations between the reviewed research and the consensus model of trust that has recently emerged in other fields of study. The review begins by briefly elaborating the consensus views on the dimensionality and function of trust. It then describes the various models of trust that have been developed in the field of risk management, comparing them with the consensus approach. The findings of previous reviews are outlined, followed by a delineation of the open questions addressed by the present review, the method used, and the results. Finally, the findings of the review are discussed in relation to the important issue of trust asymmetry, the role of trust in risk management, and directions for future research. The consensus model specifies two conceptualizations of trust, each linked to particular types of antecedents. Relational trust, which is called trust in this review, is based on the relations between the trusting person and the other. Calculative trust, which is called confidence, is based on past behavior of the other and/or on constraints on future behavior. Results of this review showed that most studies of trust in risk management, while exploring matters of particular concern to the risk management community, were at least in part consistent with the consensus model. The review concludes by urging greater integration between the concerns of the former and the insights of the latter.

Multidimensional functional learning (MFL) and some new conceptions of feedback

Abstract Multidimensional functional learning may be studied by means of a general class of tasks in which a multidimensional stimulus pattern is functionally related to a criterion. Subjects learned to predict a numerical criterion value from three numerical cues, varying in importance. In addition to simple outcome feedback, several sophisticated methods of computer-controlled feedback were employed. Results showed that a task with nonlinear cue-criterion relationships was not learned by discrete-trial outcome feedback whether or not the learners had active control over the stimulus sequence, and whether or not the cues were varied randomly or systematically over trials. Computer displays showing both the task characteristics and the learners response characteristics produced effective learning. So did partial differential feedback (PDF), a continuous form of feedback in which the stimulus characteristics are controlled by the subject and the numerical criterion is replaced by a tonal frequency. These results suggest that appropriate feedback might enable people to learn far more complex functional relationships than have been thought possible.

On the Relation Between Trust and Fairness in Environmental Risk Management

In this study, we empirically examine the relations between trust, fairness, and cooperation within two environmental risk management contexts, one in which the focal issue is of high personal moral importance and the other in which the focal issue is of low moral importance. Using an experimental design embedded in two parallel survey questionnaires, one mailed to residents of Washington State, the other to German-speaking residents of Switzerland, we either manipulated or constructed three factors, issue importance (high/low), procedural fairness (fair/unfair), and policy outcome (risk averse/risk accepting). This design enabled us to compare the predictions of the standard account of procedural fairness, that trust and cooperation are determined by judgments of fairness, with the predictions of an alternative account, that trust and cooperation will be determined by judgments of procedural fairness only when the issue involved is not morally important. Results for the American case showed that under conditions of high issue importance, policy outcome affected judged fairness, trust, and cooperation. Under conditions of low issue importance, policy outcome had no effect on judged fairness or trust but did have a moderate impact on cooperation. Analyses also showed that when issue importance was high, procedural fairness had no effects. When issue importance was low, procedural fairness had moderate effects on judged fairness and trust. Results for the Swiss case replicated the main findings for the American case. Together, these results support the alternative model of the relation between trust and fairness, suggesting that the efficacy of fair procedures is strictly limited.

Cue utilization in a numerical prediction task.

Abstract : Forty subjects were trained to use scatter plots with regression lines to make numerical predictions of one variable (criterion) from another variable (cue). The subjects were trained on two separate cues, differing in validity. Later, the two cues were presented together, simultaneously for 20 subjects, successively for the rest. Subjects were asked to use both cues to predict the criterion. Instructions emphasized that the two cues were independent of one another, but did not specify how the two should be combined. Initial analyses indicated that a regression model provided an adequate fit to the data, that the subjects showed conservatism similar to the conservatism found in previous Bayesian inference studies. However, more molecular analyses indicated patterns of behavior which consistently deviated from the optimal model. The post hoc hypothesis that subjects were regressing each cue, then averaging the regressed values, was supported by the data for most subjects. Searching for heuristic strategies, rather than relying on the apparent fit of optimal models was advocated fur future research.

Risk Communication: The Social Construction of Meaning and Trust

The philosopher, then, qua philosopher, is no better able to determine the best universe in the concrete emergency than other men. He sees, indeed, somewhat better than most men what the question always is—not a question of this good or that good simply taken, but of the two total universes with which these goods respectively belong. He knows that he must vote always for the richer universe, for the good which seems most organizable, most fit to enter into complex combinations, most apt to be a member of a more inclusive whole. But which particular universe this is he cannot know for certain in advance; he only knows that if he makes a bad mistake the cries of the wounded will soon inform him of the fact. In all this the philosopher is just like the rest of us non-philosophers, so far as we are just and sympathetic instinctively, and so far as we are open to the voice of complaint. His function is in fact indistinguishable from that of the best kind of statesman at the present day. His books upon ethics, therefore, so far as they truly touch the moral life, must more and more ally themselves with a literature which is confessedly tentative and suggestive rather than dogmatic—I mean with novels and dramas of the deeper sort, with sermons, with books on statecraft and philanthropy and social and economical reform.

Designing Technological Hazard Information Programs: Towards a Model of Risk-Adaptive Decision Making

In the late Summer of 1985 the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs organized a series of informational meetings throughout the country on the siting of new nuclear power plants. The meetings were characterized by an extremely hostile response to the government’s pro-nuclear position. Most meetings were seriously disrupted by continuous demonstrations of environmental protection groups. Asked to explain the reaction of his fellow citizens, the Ministry’s director-general of Energy stated that it was due to a lack of information about the need for, the economic benefits of, and the nature of nuclear power.

Risk Judgment and the Communication of Hazard Information: Toward a New Look in the Study of Risk Perception

During the years immediately following World War II, a group of American psychologists developed a body of work in the study of perception which became known as the “New Look” (Bruner and Goodman. 1947; Krech and Crutchfield, 1948; Bruner and Klein, 1960). The New Look was part of a larger movement at that time which aimed “to bring psychology out of the laboratory and into the area of improving human society” (Hochberg. 1964. p. 101). While the New Look was predated by related work in perception (the work of Brunswik discussed in Hammond, 1966) and social psychology (Sherif. 1935) what was new was the sharp focus on the effects of social factors such as economic status on the perception of certain attributes of objects.

Public Perception of Industrial Risks: A Free-Response Approach

Free-response survey items were used to study industrial risk perception with six groups of respondents: Nuclear Engineers, Chemical Engineers, Science Writers, and two groups selected from the general public. Several questionnaire items referred to “the closest hazardous facility that concerns you.” Because of the free-response format, respondents were able to nominate any industrial facility. About half of the respondents identified a hazardous facility within ten miles; appropriately, respondents selected on the basis of living near to hazardous facilities (one of the general public groups) reported hazardous facilities closer to them than did the other groups. The most frequently identified facility was a Nuclear Power Plant; this was true for all groups except the Nuclear Engineers. Pollution and Leak of Radioactive Materials were the most frequently mentioned risks. Nuclear Power Plants were strongly differentiated from other facilities by respondents, and a Leak of Radioactive Material from a Nuclear Power Plant was the most frequently mentioned exposure path. Other questionnaire items dealt with respondents’ views of two specific facilities, a Toxic Chemical Disposal Facility and a Nuclear Waste Disposal Facility. Respondents who were either physically closer to or professionally identified with hazardous facilities were distinguished from others by lower levels of concern about adverse effects, particularly health effects. This was coupled, however, with higher levels of concern for effects to specific groups of living persons, particularly workers at hazardous facilities. The discussion of these results is focused on three significant risk perception problems. First, public perception of industrial risks, with emphasis on Nuclear Power and Nuclear Waste Disposal. Second, the concern (or lack of it) of persons living today for persons living in future generations. Third, the appropriate use and interpretation of free- and fixed-response items in survey research.

CHILD AND ADOLESCENT DRUG USE: A JUDGMENT AND INFORMATION PROCESSING PERSPECTIVE TO HEALTH-BEHAVIOR INTERVENTIONS*

Information-based interventions to health behavior enjoy considerable popularity and are frequently used. This is so despite the fact that they often fail to successfully change health behavior. This article develops a transactional process model of human judgment and information processing that directs attention away from the mere accumulation of information to the needs, motives, and abilities of the information user. It is argued that the model can be used to improve the effectiveness of information-based interventions. Two structural aspects of drug use images are discussed in detail: personal mental images related to drug use/abstinence and the selection of images pertinent to drug use. The developed model suggests what specific judgment and information-processing changes should occur as the result of successful information-based intervention.