Timothy F. Brewer

Accuracy of rapid influenza diagnostic tests: a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND Timely diagnosis of influenza can help clinical management. PURPOSE To examine the accuracy of rapid influenza diagnostic tests (RIDTs) in adults and children with influenza-like illness and evaluate factors associated with higher accuracy. DATA SOURCES PubMed and EMBASE through December 2011; BIOSIS and Web of Science through March 2010; and citations of articles, guidelines, reviews, and manufacturers. STUDY SELECTION Studies that compared RIDTs with a reference standard of either reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (first choice) or viral culture. DATA EXTRACTION Reviewers abstracted study data by using a standardized form and assessed quality by using Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies criteria. DATA SYNTHESIS 159 studies evaluated 26 RIDTs, and 35% were conducted during the H1N1 pandemic. Failure to report whether results were assessed in a blinded manner and the basis for patient recruitment were important quality concerns. The pooled sensitivity and specificity were 62.3% (95% CI, 57.9% to 66.6%) and 98.2% (CI, 97.5% to 98.7%), respectively. The positive and negative likelihood ratios were 34.5 (CI, 23.8 to 45.2) and 0.38 (CI, 0.34 to 0.43), respectively. Sensitivity estimates were highly heterogeneous, which was partially explained by lower sensitivity in adults (53.9% [CI, 47.9% to 59.8%]) than in children (66.6% [CI, 61.6% to 71.7%]) and a higher sensitivity for influenza A (64.6% [CI, 59.0% to 70.1%) than for influenza B (52.2% [CI, 45.0% to 59.3%). LIMITATION Incomplete reporting limited the ability to assess the effect of important factors, such as specimen type and duration of influenza symptoms, on diagnostic accuracy. CONCLUSION Influenza can be ruled in but not ruled out through the use of RIDTs. Sensitivity varies across populations, but it is higher in children than in adults and for influenza A than for influenza B. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

The BCG World Atlas: A Database of Global BCG Vaccination Policies and Practices

Madhu Pai and colleagues introduce the BCG World Atlas, an open access, user friendly Web site for TB clinicians to discern global BCG vaccination policies and practices and improve the care of their patients.

Global capacity for emerging infectious disease detection

The increasing number of emerging infectious disease events that have spread internationally, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the 2009 pandemic A/H1N1, highlight the need for improvements in global outbreak surveillance. It is expected that the proliferation of Internet-based reports has resulted in greater communication and improved surveillance and reporting frameworks, especially with the revision of the World Health Organizations (WHO) International Health Regulations (IHR 2005), which went into force in 2007. However, there has been no global quantitative assessment of whether and how outbreak detection and communication processes have actually changed over time. In this study, we analyzed the entire WHO public record of Disease Outbreak News reports from 1996 to 2009 to characterize spatial-temporal trends in the timeliness of outbreak discovery and public communication about the outbreak relative to the estimated outbreak start date. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses show that overall, the timeliness of outbreak discovery improved by 7.3% [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.073, 95% CI (1.038; 1.110)] per year, and public communication improved by 6.2% [HR = 1.062, 95% CI (1.028; 1.096)] per year. However, the degree of improvement varied by geographic region; the only WHO region with statistically significant (α = 0.05) improvement in outbreak discovery was the Western Pacific region [HR = 1.102 per year, 95% CI (1.008; 1.205)], whereas the Eastern Mediterranean [HR = 1.201 per year, 95% CI (1.066; 1.353)] and Western Pacific regions [HR = 1.119 per year, 95% CI (1.025; 1.221)] showed improvement in public communication. These findings provide quantitative historical assessment of timeliness in infectious disease detection and public reporting of outbreaks.

Global health competencies and approaches in medical education: a literature review

BackgroundPhysicians today are increasingly faced with healthcare challenges that require an understanding of global health trends and practices, yet little is known about what constitutes appropriate global health training.MethodsA literature review was undertaken to identify competencies and educational approaches for teaching global health in medical schools.ResultsUsing a pre-defined search strategy, 32 articles were identified; 11 articles describing 15 global health competencies for undergraduate medical training were found. The most frequently mentioned competencies included an understanding of: the global burden of disease, travel medicine, healthcare disparities between countries, immigrant health, primary care within diverse cultural settings and skills to better interface with different populations, cultures and healthcare systems. However, no consensus on global health competencies for medical students was apparent. Didactics and experiential learning were the most common educational methods used, mentioned in 12 and 13 articles respectively. Of the 11 articles discussing competencies, 8 linked competencies directly to educational approaches.ConclusionsThis review highlights the imperative to document global health educational competencies and approaches used in medical schools and the need to facilitate greater consensus amongst medical educators on appropriate global health training for future physicians.

Teaching the basics: core competencies in global health.

Compelling moral, ethical, professional, pedagogical, and economic imperatives support the integration of global health topics within medical school curriculum. Although the process of integrating global health into medical education is well underway at some medical schools, there remain substantial challenges to initiating global health training in others. As global health is a new field, faculties and schools may benefit from resources and guidance to develop global health modules and teaching materials. This article describes the Core Competencies project undertaken by the Global Health Education Consortium and the Association of Faculties of Medicine of Canada’s Global Health Resource Group.

Global health education in U.S. Medical schools

Interest in global health (GH) among medical students worldwide is measurably increasing. There is a concomitant emphasis on emphasizing globally-relevant health professions education. Through a structured literature review, expert consensus recommendations, and contact with relevant professional organizations, we review the existing state of GH education in US medical schools for which data were available. Several recommendations from professional societies have been developed, along with a renewed emphasis on competencies in global health. The implementation of these recommendations was not observed as being uniform across medical schools, with variation noted in the presence of global health curricula. Recommendations for including GH in medical education are suggested, as well as ways to formalize GH curricula, while providing flexibility for innovation and adaptation

The influence of program acceptability on the effectiveness of public health policy: a study of directly observed therapy for tuberculosis.

OBJECTIVES This study examined how patient acceptability influences the effectiveness of directly observed therapy for tuberculosis. METHODS Decision and sensitivity analyses were used in assessing influences. RESULTS If mandatory directly observed therapy discourages 6% of initial tuberculosis patients (range: 4% to 10%) from seeking care, then such therapy will be less effective than self-administered therapy. Directly observed therapy is more effective than repeated self-administered therapy for patients failing to complete initial treatment unless 32% (range: 27% to 38%) of patients avoid seeking care. CONCLUSIONS Patient acceptability must be taken into consideration before selecting public health strategies.

Pediatric Tuberculosis: What Needs to be Done to Decrease Morbidity and Mortality

Objective. Tuberculosis (TB) control programs have been less successful among children than among adults in the United States. Between 1992 and 1997, the rate of decline of TB cases among 0- to 14-year-old children was less than the rate of decline among any other age group of US-born persons. Because of the higher prevalence of active TB among adults and their higher infectivity, most programs for TB in the United States have targeted adults. The inherent assumption has been that by targeting adults, from whom children may become infected, TB morbidity and mortality among children also will be reduced effectively. Methods. Using a semi-Markov model that divided the US population into age groups <15 years old and ≥15 years old and into 18 clinical states based on the risk for or presence of TB and human immunodeficiency virus infection, we developed a computer-based simulation model to examine the effect of a range of potential TB control strategies on projected TB cases and deaths in children. We compare the impact of interventions targeted at children with the impact of interventions targeted at adults on pediatric morbidity and mortality. Results. After 10 years, a 5% increase in the number of adults with TB who enter treatment would only lead to a .05% decline in TB cases among children, compared with predicted cases without this intervention. Improving treatment efficacy among those adults who are already receiving treatment for their TB leads to a smaller decline in cases among children of only .003%. In contrast, a 5% increase in the number of children who enter treatment leads to a 25% decline, after 10 years, in the number of TB cases among children and a 16% decline in the number of TB deaths. In the presence of immigration of tuberculin-positive children, the benefit of targeting programs directly at children is magnified. Conclusions. Marginal changes in programs targeted directly at children are significantly more effective at further reducing pediatric TB morbidity and mortality than the same changes in programs targeted at adults with the indirect goal of reducing spread to children. Marginal increases in the number of children who enter treatment are far more effective at decreasing morbidity and mortality than equivalent marginal increases in treatment effectiveness. Unfortunately, declining insurance coverage and increasing restrictions on services to immigrants have made it harder for those who are at greatest risk of TB to get medical care. Marginal increases in preventive therapy rates substantially reduce future pediatric TB cases and deaths among children with TB infection and human immunodeficiency virus.

The problem of transfusion-associated acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in Africa: A quantitative approach

BACKGROUND Transfusion-associated AIDS accounts for 10% of all cases of AIDS in Africa. The risk of HIV-1 contamination in transfusions continues to exist, even in countries where blood products are screened, because of limitations in test sensitivity, human error, and the window period. Furthermore, 30 African countries do not screen all of their blood products because of resource limitations. METHODS This study used decision analysis to compare the survival outcomes of severely anemic patients who are transfused with those of patients who are not transfused. Sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS When 5% of the blood supply is HIV-1 contaminated, every patient with a 6.6% or greater risk of dying from anemia should be transfused. Detailed results are provided for a wide range of HIV-1 contamination rates. CONCLUSIONS This study provides a method for developing and evaluating locality-specific transfusion guidelines. This method can be applied to other regions, including the United States, and to other diseases transmitted by blood products.

A scoping review of malaria forecasting: past work and future directions

Objectives There is a growing body of literature on malaria forecasting methods and the objective of our review is to identify and assess methods, including predictors, used to forecast malaria. Design Scoping review. Two independent reviewers searched information sources, assessed studies for inclusion and extracted data from each study. Information sources Search strategies were developed and the following databases were searched: CAB Abstracts, EMBASE, Global Health, MEDLINE, ProQuest Dissertations & Theses and Web of Science. Key journals and websites were also manually searched. Eligibility criteria for included studies We included studies that forecasted incidence, prevalence or epidemics of malaria over time. A description of the forecasting model and an assessment of the forecast accuracy of the model were requirements for inclusion. Studies were restricted to human populations and to autochthonous transmission settings. Results We identified 29 different studies that met our inclusion criteria for this review. The forecasting approaches included statistical modelling, mathematical modelling and machine learning methods. Climate-related predictors were used consistently in forecasting models, with the most common predictors being rainfall, relative humidity, temperature and the normalised difference vegetation index. Model evaluation was typically based on a reserved portion of data and accuracy was measured in a variety of ways including mean-squared error and correlation coefficients. We could not compare the forecast accuracy of models from the different studies as the evaluation measures differed across the studies. Conclusions Applying different forecasting methods to the same data, exploring the predictive ability of non-environmental variables, including transmission reducing interventions and using common forecast accuracy measures will allow malaria researchers to compare and improve models and methods, which should improve the quality of malaria forecasting.