Timothy L Cook

Recent warming reverses long-term arctic cooling.

Climate Reversal The climate and environment of the Arctic have changed drastically over the short course of modern observation. Kaufman et al. (p. 1236) synthesized 2000 years of proxy data from lakes above 60° N latitude with complementary ice core and tree ring records, to create a paleoclimate reconstruction for the Arctic with a 10-year resolution. A gradual cooling trend at the start of the record had reversed by the beginning of the 20th century, when temperatures began to increase rapidly. The long-term cooling of the Arctic is consistent with a reduction in summer solar insolation caused by changes in Earths orbit, while the rapid and large warming of the past century is consistent with the human-caused warming. A 2000-year-long Arctic cooling trend seen in a surface air temperature reconstruction was reversed during the last century. The temperature history of the first millennium C.E. is sparsely documented, especially in the Arctic. We present a synthesis of decadally resolved proxy temperature records from poleward of 60°N covering the past 2000 years, which indicates that a pervasive cooling in progress 2000 years ago continued through the Middle Ages and into the Little Ice Age. A 2000-year transient climate simulation with the Community Climate System Model shows the same temperature sensitivity to changes in insolation as does our proxy reconstruction, supporting the inference that this long-term trend was caused by the steady orbitally driven reduction in summer insolation. The cooling trend was reversed during the 20th century, with four of the five warmest decades of our 2000-year-long reconstruction occurring between 1950 and 2000.

2.8 Million Years of Arctic Climate Change from Lake El’gygytgyn, NE Russia

Crater Core The high-northern latitudes of the Arctic have an important influence on climate and constitute a region with a unique array of complex feedbacks that make it difficult to understand the workings of its climate. Melles et al. (p. 315, published online 21 June) developed a 2.8-million-year record of Arctic climate, using a sediment core from a lake in northeastern Russia that was formed more than 3.5 million years ago by a meteorite impact. Pronounced glacial episodes began 2.6 million years ago but did not achieve orbital pacing for another 700,000 years. A sediment core from a Russian lake provides a high-latitude climate record where prior terrestrial records have been sparse. The reliability of Arctic climate predictions is currently hampered by insufficient knowledge of natural climate variability in the past. A sediment core from Lake El’gygytgyn in northeastern (NE) Russia provides a continuous, high-resolution record from the Arctic, spanning the past 2.8 million years. This core reveals numerous “super interglacials” during the Quaternary; for marine benthic isotope stages (MIS) 11c and 31, maximum summer temperatures and annual precipitation values are ~4° to 5°C and ~300 millimeters higher than those of MIS 1 and 5e. Climate simulations show that these extreme warm conditions are difficult to explain with greenhouse gas and astronomical forcing alone, implying the importance of amplifying feedbacks and far field influences. The timing of Arctic warming relative to West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreats implies strong interhemispheric climate connectivity.

Depositional evidence for the Kamikaze typhoons and links to changes in typhoon climatology

In the late 13 th century, Kublai Khan, ruler of the Mongol Empire, launched one of the world’s largest armadas of its time in an attempt to conquer Japan. Early narratives described the decimation and dispersal of these fleets by the “Kamikaze” of 1274 CE and 1281 CE, a pair of intense typhoons “divinely” sent to protect Japan from invasion. These historical accounts are prone to exaggeration, and significant questions remain regarding the occurrence and true intensity of these legendary typhoons. To provide independent insight, we present a new 2000 yr sedimentary reconstruction of extreme coastal flooding from a coastal lake near the location of the Mongol invasions. Two marine-sourced flood deposits date to the Kamikaze typhoons and are the events of record in the reconstruction. The complete reconstruction indicates periods of greater flood activity relative to modern beginning ca. 250 CE and extending past the timing of the Kamikaze events to 1600 CE. Comparisons with additional reconstructions are consistent with greater regional typhoon activity during the Mongol invasions due to the preferential steering of storms toward Japan, and driven by greater El Nino activity relative to modern. Results are consistent with the paired Kamikaze typhoons being of significant intensity, and support accounts of them playing an important role in preventing the conquering of Japan by Mongol fleets. The Kamikaze typhoons may therefore serve as a prominent example for how past increases in severe weather associated with changing climate have had significant geopolitical impacts.

An Analysis of Past and Future Changes in the Ice Cover of Two High-Arctic Lakes Based on Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and Landsat Imagery

Abstract Space-borne remotely sensed data can provide valuable insight into cryospheric processes in remote high-latitude regions for which direct observations are limited. In this study we use synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and Landsat imagery to evaluate recent changes in the ice cover of Upper and Lower Murray Lakes (81°20′N, 69°30′W) on Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada. These data highlight changes in ice conditions that have occurred over the past decade and provide a means for assessing the likely impacts of rising temperatures on future lake-ice conditions. Under current (1997–2007) climatic conditions the Murray Lakes average several weeks of ice-free conditions in August and early September, although in some years a partial ice cover persists throughout the year. The observed relationship between summer temperature and ice melt at Upper and Lower Murray Lakes suggests that recent warming in the High Arctic has forced the lakes near a threshold from a state characterized by perennial ice cover to the current state that includes seasonal melting of lake ice. Projected future warming will significantly increase the duration of ice free conditions on Upper and Lower Murray Lakes, with ice-out predicted to occur 13.5 ± 4.0 and 17.6 ± 5.6 days earlier, respectively, for every 1 °C increase in mean June–July temperature.

Contrasting human versus climatic impacts on erosion

Both human activity and climate change can influence erosion rates and initiate rapid landscape change. Understanding the relative impact of these factors is critical to managing the risks of extreme erosion related to flooding and landslide occurrence. Here we present a 2100 year record of sediment mass accumulation and inferred erosion based on lacustrine sediment cores from Amherst Lake, Vermont, USA. Using deposition from August 2011 Tropical Storm Irene as a modern analogue, we identified distinct event deposits indicative of destructive erosion events. These deposits record a prolonged (multidecadal) interval of enhanced erosion following the initial storm-induced landscape disturbance. The direct impact of human land cover alteration is minimal in comparison to the more recent twentieth century increase in the occurrence of catastrophic erosion linked to overall wetter conditions that favor high erosion rates and more easily trigger landslides during periods of extreme precipitation.