Timothy L. McDaniels

Perceived ecological risks of global change: A psychometric comparison of causes and consequences

Abstract Clarifying lay views is a crucial step in characterizing the “social construct” of global change. This article discusses lay perceptions of ecological risks associated with three global environmental change processes: (a) climate change, (b) ozone depletion, and (c) species loss. A psychometric risk perception study obtained judgements from 68 subjects about 65 ecological risk items in terms of 31 scales. The findings show that sources of the three global change processes (eg refrigeration) are viewed quite differently than are the consequences (eg ozone depletion). There seems to be a persistent lack of connection in judgements regarding causes and consequences. Several possible explanations for these patterns are discussed. Implications of these patterns are considered in terms of possible policy responses, and improved risk communication strategies.

Identifying and Structuring Values to Guide Integrated Resource Planning at Bc Gas

British Columbia Gas, a major utility, was required by the British Columbia Utilities Commission (BCUC) to develop an integrated resource plan that addressed multiple objectives and involved the participation of stakeholders. To assist BC Gas, we elicited values separately from most of the senior executives at BC Gas, members of the BCUC, and representatives of several stakeholder groups. Based on these values, we structured a set of objectives and associated performance measures for integrated resource planning (IRP) at BC Gas. A multistakeholder process then provided judgments about appropriate value tradeoffs among these objectives. This information was used in several ways in the IRP process. It fostered improved communication and served as a guide for designing more attractive plans and identifying future information needs. It also provided the basis for a quantitative evaluation of alternative plans and resources. Both the IRP process and the chosen integrated resource plan were reviewed by lawyers representing intervenors at a quasi-judicial hearing of the BCUC. Their concerns are informative in providing lessons for the use of the elicited values in the context of regulatory hearings.

Toward Disaster‐Resilient Cities: Characterizing Resilience of Infrastructure Systems with Expert Judgments

Resilient infrastructure systems are essential for cities to withstand and rapidly recover from natural and human-induced disasters, yet electric power, transportation, and other infrastructures are highly vulnerable and interdependent. New approaches for characterizing the resilience of sets of infrastructure systems are urgently needed, at community and regional scales. This article develops a practical approach for analysts to characterize a communitys infrastructure vulnerability and resilience in disasters. It addresses key challenges of incomplete incentives, partial information, and few opportunities for learning. The approach is demonstrated for Metro Vancouver, Canada, in the context of earthquake and flood risk. The methodological approach is practical and focuses on potential disruptions to infrastructure services. In spirit, it resembles probability elicitation with multiple experts; however, it elicits disruption and recovery over time, rather than uncertainties regarding system function at a given point in time. It develops information on regional infrastructure risk and engages infrastructure organizations in the process. Information sharing, iteration, and learning among the participants provide the basis for more informed estimates of infrastructure system robustness and recovery that incorporate the potential for interdependent failures after an extreme event. Results demonstrate the vital importance of cross-sectoral communication to develop shared understanding of regional infrastructure disruption in disasters. For Vancouver, specific results indicate that in a hypothetical M7.3 earthquake, virtually all infrastructures would suffer severe disruption of service in the immediate aftermath, with many experiencing moderate disruption two weeks afterward. Electric power, land transportation, and telecommunications are identified as core infrastructure sectors.

The ecological footprint: a non-monetary metric of human consumption applied to North America

Abstract This paper employs ecological footprint analysis as a potential non-monetary metric of human consumption and ecological productivity in a simulation-modeling framework, applied to North America. The ecological footprint provides an indirect basis for considering the long-term ecological risk and sustainability of human settlements, regions or, in this case, a continent. We examine several scenarios for human consumption, ecological productivity and material efficiency, to explore which variables have influence on the ecological budget of North America over the coming century. Only one scenario, which assumes considerable reductions in human consumption, is likely to yield an ecological surplus. Unlike monetary measures of societal well-being, ecological footprint analysis shows that increased economic activity and consumption creates deficits in terms of the balance of ecological productivity and consumption in a region, and may reduce long-term ecological sustainability. Several advantages and disadvantages of this metric are discussed.

A Framework to Guide Thinking and Analysis Regarding Climate Change Policies

The potential impacts from climate change, and climate change policies, are massive. Careful thinking about what we want climate change policies to achieve is a crucial first step for analysts to help governments make wise policy choices to address these concerns. This article presents an adaptive framework to help guide comparative analysis of climate change policies. The framework recognizes the inability to forecast long-term impacts (due in part to path dependance) as a constraint on the use of standard policy analysis, and stresses learning over time as a fundamental concern. The framework focuses on the objectives relevant for climate change policy in North America over the near term (e.g., the next 20 years). For planning and evaluating current climate policy alternatives, a combination of fundamental objectives for the near term and proxy objectives for characterizing the state of the climate problem and the ability to address it at the end of that term is suggested. Broad uses of the framework are discussed, along with some concrete examples. The framework is intended to provide a basis for policy analysis that explicitly considers the benefits of learning over time to improve climate change policies.

Using Judgment in Resource Management: A Multiple Objective Analysis of a Fisheries Management Decision

This paper uses multiple objective decision analysis to conduct an ex post analysis of a specific fisheries management decision involving conflicting long-term objectives for mixed stocks. The paper illustrates the potential role of subjective judgment in fisheries and other resource management contexts and the relevance of decision analysis for in-season salmon management. The decision context is first defined in terms of objectives and alternatives, then subjective probability distributions are elicited from experts regarding uncertain biological parameters. A simulation is then used to estimate the consequences of alternative openings, given the biological uncertainties. A utility function is elicited from a fisheries manager and used to select among alternative commercial fishery openings. The results show that objectives other than those typically assumed in fisheries modeling, and subjective judgments by technical experts, can be important for in-season salmon management. The results also show that, in this application, the equivalent of nearly

Some Pitfalls of an Overemphasis on Science in Environmental Risk Management Decisions

8 million in potential benefits are available from delaying the opening of the commercial fishery by a single day.

Multiattribute elicitation of wilderness preservation benefits: a constructive approach

This paper addresses the question whether calls for “more” and “better” science will have the intended effect of improving the quality of decisions about environmental risks. There are reasons to be skeptical: key judgment tasks that fundamentally shape many aspects of decisions about environmental risk management lie outside the domain of science. These tasks include making value judgments explicit, integrating facts and values to create innovative alternatives, and constructively addressing conflicts about uncertainty. To bring new specificity to an old debate, we highlight six pitfalls in environmental risk decisions that can occur as the result of an overemphasis on science as the basis for management choices.

Decision structuring to alleviate embedding in environmental valuation

Abstract This paper contributes to the development of a constructive approach to evaluating environmental resources, using a version of multiattribute value elicitation in a group setting. Section 1 discusses the assumptions and practices of group multiattribute elicitation for public policy decisions. The good of interest is a potential doubling of designated wilderness areas in British Columbia. Two groups, totalling 28 subjects, participated in intensive half-day workshops in which they provided judgments regarding the amounts of tax revenues from forest industry activities each thought provincial residents should forego to achieve specified increases in wilderness preservation. Subjects were asked to consider direct and passive use values, spiritual values, and ecological service values. Subjects were also asked to consider separately the interests of the current generation and future generations of residents and to provide judgments regarding the marginal benefits of increasing preservation. An initial aggregated valuation question was followed by five more disaggregated questions. Subjects then compared and reconciled their value judgments for the aggregated and disaggregated questions. The results are generally comparable to those of a contingent valuation referendum-based survey for the same valuation issues.

The structured value referendum: Eliciting preferences for environmental policy alternatives

Abstract Embedding is the widely-observed phenomenon that a good is assigned a higher value if evaluated on its own rather than as part of a more inclusive set. Embedding is considered a serious problem affecting the quality of many environmental management and health risk policy judgments. This paper presents the results of an experiment involving of a structured, small-group approach for conducting environmental policy evaluations. It focuses on eliciting problem-specific values and discussion among participants about the pros and cons of multiple project alternatives, in the context of tradeoffs between fisheries production and electricity generation from dams. Study results show a significant reduction in embedding, which is viewed as an improvement in the quality of the preference judgments compared with a standard contingent valuation (CV) approach.