Timothy M. Komarek

Too Big? Too Small? Just Right? An Empirical Perspective on Local Firm Size Distribution and Economic Growth in U.S. Counties and High-Poverty Rural Regions

The authors examine the relationship between the distribution of firms across size categories and economic growth, extending Loveridge and Nizalov’s Michigan results to the United States. Using county-level data, including growth and control variables, the authors explore the relationship between the size distribution of firms and 12-year growth patterns for the continental United States and three multistate high-poverty regions. The results of fixed-effect feasible generalized least squares estimation show a connection between employment growth and the distribution of firms across size categories for the continental United States. The results also show a positive link between employment growth and firm size for Lineal America and the Plantation Belt, but no statistically significant relationship for the Borderlands. The results suggest that policies aimed at promoting small business, while important nationally, may differ in impacts across regions and provide an argument for region-level decision making about growth policies.

Fracking and public health: Evidence from gonorrhea incidence in the Marcellus Shale region

The United States (US) began to experience a boom in natural gas production in the 2000s due to the advent of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and horizontal drilling technology. While the natural gas boom affected many people through lower energy prices, the strongest effects were concentrated in smaller communities where the fracking occurred. We analyze one potential cost to communities where fracking takes place: an increase of sexually transmitted diseases. We use a quasi-natural experiment within the Marcellus shale region plus panel data estimation techniques to quantify the impact of fracking activity on local gonorrhea incidences. We found fracking activity to be associated with an increase in gonorrhea. Our findings may be useful to public health officials. To make informed decisions about resource extraction, policy makers as well as regulators and communities need to be informed of all the benefits as well as the costs.

Individual discount rates forecast county-level unemployment change

ABSTRACT We use a national survey to estimate individuals’ discount rates for job creation in the community and test whether impatience for jobs is associated county-level unemployment change outcomes in subsequent years. Our results suggest that impatience for jobs is a possible forecast variable for future modelling efforts. To explore whether the impatience effect is general or simply limited to attitudes about local job creation, the same survey asked about discount rates for local amenity development and personal financial windfall. We find that job growth discount rates perform best for forecasting.