Timothy M. Shanahan

Atlantic Forcing of Persistent Drought in West Africa

Although persistent drought in West Africa is well documented from the instrumental record and has been primarily attributed to changing Atlantic sea surface temperatures, little is known about the length, severity, and origin of drought before the 20th century. We combined geomorphic, isotopic, and geochemical evidence from the sediments of Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana, to reconstruct natural variability in the African monsoon over the past three millennia. We find that intervals of severe drought lasting for periods ranging from decades to centuries are characteristic of the monsoon and are linked to natural variations in Atlantic temperatures. Thus the severe drought of recent decades is not anomalous in the context of the past three millennia, indicating that the monsoon is capable of longer and more severe future droughts.

Temperature variability over Africa during the last 2000 years

A growing number of proxy, historical and instrumental data sets are now available from continental Africa through which past variations in temperature can be assessed. This paper, co-authored by members of the PAGES Africa2k Working Group, synthesises published material to produce a record of temperature variability for Africa as a whole spanning the last 2000 years. The paper focuses on temperature variability during the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’ (MCA), ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA) and late 19th–early 21st centuries. Warmer conditions during the MCA are evident in records from Lake Tanganyika in central Africa, the Ethiopian Highlands in northeastern Africa, and Cango Cave, the Kuiseb River and Wonderkrater in southern Africa. Other records covering the MCA give ambiguous signals. Warming appears to have been greater during the early MCA (c. ad 1000) in parts of southern Africa and during the later MCA (from ad 1100) in Namibia, Ethiopia and at Lake Tanganyika. LIA cooling is evident in Ethiopian and southern African pollen records and in organic biomarker data from Lake Malawi in southeastern tropical Africa, while at Lake Tanganyika the temperature depression appears to have been less consistent. A warming trend in mean annual temperatures is clearly evident from historical and instrumental data covering the late 19th to early 21st centuries. General warming has occurred over Africa since the 1880s punctuated only by a period of cooling in the mid 20th century. The rate of temperature increase appears to have accelerated towards the end of the 20th century. The few long high-resolution proxy records that extend into the late 20th century indicate that average annual temperatures were 1–2°C higher in the last few decades than during the MCA.

Continental-Scale Temperature Variability during the Past Two Millennia: Supplementary Information

Past global climate changes had strong regional expression. To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia. The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century. At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them. There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions between ad 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century. The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions. Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period ad 1971–2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years.

Paleoelevation records from lipid biomarkers: Application to the tropical Andes

New results from two novel lipid biomarker–based proxies help to constrain the late Cenozoic surface elevation history of the Eastern Cordillera in the tropical northern Andes of Colombia. Previous well-known studies have suggested rapid latest Miocene–Pliocene (6–3 Ma) uplift on the basis of an abrupt shift in pollen species assemblages within sedimentary basin fill of the elevated Bogota Plateau. From resampling of these original study localities, we provide a revised chronology based on magnetic polarity stratigraphy, and we evaluate paleotemperatures using the MBT′/CBT indices (methylation of branched tetraethers/cyclization of branched tetraethers) and hydrogen isotopic composition (δD) of leaf waxes as two independent proxies of past surface elevation. Reconstructed paleotemperatures from the MBT′/CBT proxy show a more gradual cooling trend from ca. 7.6 Ma to present, consistent with less than 1000 m of elevation gain since latest Miocene–Pliocene time and in agreement with geologic evidence for accelerated shortening and exhumation at this time. The leaf wax isotopic data, on the other hand, lack a systematic trend, potentially due to fractionation changes associated with uplift-induced turnover in floral populations. Such changes could obscure isotopic variations in meteoric water, suggesting that leaf-wax isotopic compositions may not provide a direct proxy for elevation in this particular situation involving uplift in a heterogeneous tropical environment. More promising in this case is the MBT′/CBT proxy, which may offer a suitable alternative to carbonate-based paleoelevation proxies in tropical regions where year-round high precipitation rates prevent formation of soil carbonates.

Pollen and spores as biological recorders of past ultraviolet irradiance

Solar ultraviolet (UV) irradiance is a key driver of climatic and biotic change. Ultraviolet irradiance modulates stratospheric warming and ozone production, and influences the biosphere from ecosystem-level processes through to the largest scale patterns of diversification and extinction. Yet our understanding of ultraviolet irradiance is limited because no method has been validated to reconstruct its flux over timescales relevant to climatic or biotic processes. Here, we show that a recently developed proxy for ultraviolet irradiance based on spore and pollen chemistry can be used over long (105 years) timescales. Firstly we demonstrate that spatial variations in spore and pollen chemistry correlate with known latitudinal solar irradiance gradients. Using this relationship we provide a reconstruction of past changes in solar irradiance based on the pollen record from Lake Bosumtwi in Ghana. As anticipated, variations in the chemistry of grass pollen from the Lake Bosumtwi record show a link to multiple orbital precessional cycles (19–21 thousand years). By providing a unique, local proxy for broad spectrum solar irradiance, the chemical analysis of spores and pollen offers unprecedented opportunities to decouple solar variability, climate and vegetation change through geologic time and a new proxy with which to probe the Earth system.

CO2 and fire influence tropical ecosystem stability in response to climate change

Interactions between climate, fire and CO2 are believed to play a crucial role in controlling the distributions of tropical woodlands and savannas, but our understanding of these processes is limited by the paucity of data from undisturbed tropical ecosystems. Here we use a 28,000-year integrated record of vegetation, climate and fire from West Africa to examine the role of these interactions on tropical ecosystem stability. We find that increased aridity between 28–15 kyr B.P. led to the widespread expansion of tropical grasslands, but that frequent fires and low CO2 played a crucial role in stabilizing these ecosystems, even as humidity changed. This resulted in an unstable ecosystem state, which transitioned abruptly from grassland to woodlands as gradual changes in CO2 and fire shifted the balance in favor of woody plants. Since then, high atmospheric CO2 has stabilized tropical forests by promoting woody plant growth, despite increased aridity. Our results indicate that the interactions between climate, CO2 and fire can make tropical ecosystems more resilient to change, but that these systems are dynamically unstable and potentially susceptible to abrupt shifts between woodland and grassland dominated states in the future.

Structural and hydrogeologic evolution of the Putumayo basin and adjacent fold-thrust belt, Colombia

This multidisciplinary study evaluates the structural and hydrogeologic evolution of Cretaceous-age reservoirs in the Putumayo basin, Colombia. We focused on the Eastern Cordillera fold-thrust belt along the southern Garzon Massif. Many important hydrocarbon accumulations occurred regionally along the proximal foreland basin and frontal fold-thrust belt defining the eastern margin of the northern Andes. To understand why recent Putumayo basin and adjacent thrust belt exploration has resulted in a wide range of oil quality and limited economic discoveries, we reconstructed the structural evolution, timing of oil migration, and timing of groundwater infiltration by (1) assessing regional trends in formation water, oil, and reservoir properties; (2) quantifying the timing of hydrocarbon generation and migration relative to trap formation using (a) two-dimensional (2-D) and three-dimensional seismic data to define and constrain a restorable balanced cross section from the Upper Magdalena Valley to the Putumayo foreland and (b) coupled one-dimensional thermal basin modeling; (3) evaluating the potential roles of Mesozoic extensional faulting and Paleogene shortening in the generation and preservation of structural traps; and (4) assessing groundwater influx from the modern foothills into the reservoir using a 2-D numerical groundwater flow model. We suggest that four-way closure is limited in the study area, where most foreland-verging structures create three-way fault closures that do not effectively trap light hydrocarbons. In addition, east-dipping structures and a relatively large reservoir outcrop area provide water infiltration pathways. Groundwater modeling suggests reservoirs were water washed by 2–200 million pore volumes since Andean uplift. Finally, average reservoir temperatures are <80°C (<176°F), which further facilitated biodegradation.

Isolation and characterization of a CO2-tolerant Lactobacillus strain from Crystal Geyser, Utah, U.S.A.

When CO2 is sequestered into the deep subsurface, changes to the subsurface microbial community will occur. Capnophiles, microorganisms that grow in CO2-rich environments, are some organisms that may be selected for under the new environmental conditions. To determine whether capnophiles comprise an important part of CO2-rich environments, an isolate from Crystal Geyser, Utah, U.S.A., a CO2- rich spring considered a carbon sequestration analogue, was characterized. The isolate was cultured under varying CO2, pH, salinity, and temperature, as well as different carbon substrates and terminal electron acceptors (TEAs) to elucidate growth conditions and metabolic activity. Designated CG-1, the isolate is related (99%) to Lactobacillus casei in 16S rRNA gene identity, growing at PCO2 between 0 to 1.0 MPa. Growth is inhibited at 2.5 MPa, but stationary phase cultures exposed to this pressure survive beyond 5 days. At 5.0 MPa, survival is at least 24 hours. CG-1 grows in neutral pH, 0.25 M NaCl, and between 25° to 45°C andconsumes glucose, lactose, sucrose, or crude oil, likely performing lactic acid fermentation. Fatty acid profiles between 0.1 MPa to 1.0 MPa suggests decreases in cell size and increases in membrane rigidity. Transmission electron microscopy reveals rod shaped bacteria at 0.1 MPa. At 1.0 MPa, cells are smaller, amorphous, and produce abundant capsular material. Its ability to grow in environments regardless of the presence of CO2 suggests we have isolated an organism that is more capnotolerant than capnophilic. Results also show that microorganisms are capable of surviving the stressful conditions created by the introduction of CO2 for sequestration. Furthermore, our ability to culture an environmental isolate indicates that organisms found in CO2 environments from previous genomic and metagenomics studies are viable, metabolizing, and potentially affecting the surrounding environment.

Distribution of branched GDGTs in surface sediments from the Colville River, Alaska: Implications for the MBT'/CBT paleothermometer in Arctic marine sediments

Significant climate fluctuations in the Arctic over the recent past, and additional predicted future temperature changes, highlight the need for high-resolution Arctic paleoclimate records. Arctic coastal environments supplied with terrigenous sediment from Arctic rivers have the potential to provide annual to subdecadal resolution records of climate variability over the last few millennia. A potential tool for paleotemperature reconstructions in these marine sediments is the revised methylation index of branched tetraethers (MBT′)/cyclization ratio of branched tetraethers (CBT) proxy based on branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs). In this study, we examine the source of brGDGTs in the Colville River, Alaska, and the adjacent Simpson Lagoon and reconstruct temperatures from Simpson Lagoon sediments to evaluate the applicability of this proxy in Arctic estuarine environments. The Colville catchment soils, fluvial sediments, and estuarine sediments contain statistically similar brGDGT distributions, indicating that the brGDGTs throughout the system are soil derived with little alteration from in situ brGDGT production in the river or coastal waters. Temperatures reconstructed from the MBT′/CBT indices for surface samples show good agreement with regional summer (June through September) temperatures, suggesting a seasonal bias in Arctic temperature reconstructions from the Colville system. In addition, we reconstruct paleotemperatures from an estuarine sediment core that spans the last 75 years, revealing an overall warming trend in the twentieth century that is consistent with trends observed in regional instrumental records. These results support the application of this brGDGT-based paleotemperature proxy for subdecadal-scale summer temperature reconstructions in Arctic estuaries containing organic material derived from sediment-laden, episodic rivers.

A multi-proxy investigation of late-Holocene temperature change and climate-driven fluctuations in sediment sourcing: Simpson Lagoon, Alaska:

The significant and ongoing environmental changes in Arctic regions demonstrate the need for quantitative, high-resolution records of pre-industrial climate change in this climatically sensitive region; such records are fundamental for understanding recent anthropogenic changes in the context of natural variability. Sediment contained within Arctic coastal environments proximal to large fluvial systems has the ability to record paleoclimate variability on subdecadal to decadal scale resolution, on par with many other terrestrial climate archives (i.e. lake sediments, ice cores). Here, we utilize one such sediment archive from Simpson Lagoon, Alaska, located adjacent to the Colville River Delta to reconstruct temperature variability and fluctuations in sediment sourcing over the past 1700 years. Quantitative reconstructions of summer air temperature are obtained using the branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (brGDGT)-derived methylation index of branched tetraethers (MBT’)/cyclization ratio of branched tetraether (CBT) paleothermometer and reveal temperature departures correlative with noted climate events (i.e. ‘Little Ice Age’, ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’). In addition, temporal variability in sediment sourcing to the lagoon, determined using a multi-proxy approach (i.e. granulometry, elemental analysis, clay mineralogy), broadly corresponds with temperature fluctuations, indicating relative increases in fluvial sediment discharge during colder intervals and decreased river discharge/increased coastal erosion during warmer periods. The Simpson Lagoon record presented in this study is the first temperature reconstruction, to our knowledge, developed from coastal marine sediments in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea.