Tina Raine-Bennett

Benchmarking CIN 3+ risk as the basis for incorporating HPV and Pap cotesting into cervical screening and management guidelines.

Objective In 2012, the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) and a consensus of 25 organizations endorsed concurrent cytology and human papillomavirus (HPV) testing (“cotesting”) for cervical cancer screening. Past screening and management guidelines were implicitly based on risks defined by Pap-alone, without consideration of HPV test results. To promote management that is consistent with accepted practice, new guidelines incorporating cotesting should aim to achieve equal management of women at equal risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 and cancer (CIN 3+). Methods We estimated cumulative 5-year risks of CIN 3+ for 965,360 women aged 30 to 64 years undergoing cotesting at Kaiser Permanente Northern California over 2003 to 2010. We calculated the implicit risk thresholds for Pap-alone and applied them for new management guidance on HPV and Pap cotesting, citing 2 examples: HPV-positive/atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US) and HPV-negative/Pap-negative. We call this guidance process “benchmarking.” Results A low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion result, for which immediate colposcopy is prescribed, carries a 5-year CIN 3+ risk of 5.2%, suggesting that test results with similar risks should be managed with colposcopy. Similarly, ASC-US (2.6% risk) is managed with a 6- to 12-month follow-up visit and Pap-negative (0.26% risk) is managed with a 3-year follow-up visit. The 5-year CIN 3+ risk among women with HPV-positive/ASC-US was 6.8% (95% confidence interval = 6.2%–7.6%). This is greater than the 5.2% risk implicitly leading to referral for colposcopy, consistent with current management recommendations that women with HPV-positive/ASC-US be referred for immediate colposcopy. The 5-year CIN 3+ risk among women with HPV-negative/Pap-negative results was 0.08% (95% confidence interval = 0.07%–0.09%), far below the 0.26% implicitly required for a 3-year return and justifying a longer (e.g., 5-year) return. Conclusions Using the principle of “equal management of equal risks,” benchmarking to implicit risk thresholds based on Pap-alone can be used to achieve safe and consistent incorporation of cotesting.

Five-year risks of CIN 3+ and cervical cancer among women who test Pap-negative but are HPV-positive.

Objective Current US guidelines for cotesting recommend that the large numbers of women who test Pap-negative, but human papillomavirus (HPV)–positive, return in 1 year, and those who remain HPV-positive or have low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL) or worse Pap results be referred for colposcopy. However, the performance of these guidelines in routine clinical practice has not been evaluated. Methods We estimated cumulative 5-year risks of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse (CIN 3+) among 32,374 women aged 30 to 64 years with HPV-positive/Pap-negative cotest results at Kaiser Permanente Northern California during 2003 to 2010. Results The 5-year CIN 3+ risk after an HPV-positive/Pap-negative cotest result, which was found in 3.6% of women, was 4.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.2%–4.8%). The 5-year cancer risk was 0.34% (95% CI = 0.26%–0.45%), and half of the cases were adenocarcinoma. Overall, 48% of the women remained HPV-positive on return (median = 418 days after baseline), a percentage that varied little over ages 30 to 64 years. At the return after a baseline HPV-positive/Pap-negative result, almost every repeat cotest result predicted greater subsequent 5-year CIN 3+ risk than the same cotest result had at baseline (HPV-positive/LSIL, 9.2% vs 6.1%, p = .01; HPV-positive/atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance [ASC-US], 7.9% vs 6.8%, p = .2; HPV-positive/Pap-negative, 7.4% vs 4.5%, p < .0001; HPV-negative/LSIL,1.7% vs 2.0%, p = .8; HPV-negative/ASC-US, 2.9% vs 0.43%, p = .0005; HPV-negative/Pap-negative, 0.93% vs 0.08%, p < .0001). Conclusions Using the principle of “equal management of equal risks,” women testing HPV-positive/Pap-negative had a subsequent CIN 3+ risk consistent with risk thresholds for a 1-year return. However, on returning in approximately 1 year, about one-half of women will be referred for colposcopy because of continued HPV positivity or Pap abnormality. Clinicians should keep in mind that cotest results at the return after a baseline HPV-positive/Pap-negative finding are riskier than the same baseline cotest results in the general population, supporting intensified clinical management at return testing.

Risk management options elected by women after testing positive for a BRCA mutation

OBJECTIVE To assess the uptake of risk-reducing options for the management of ovarian and breast cancer risk in BRCA mutation carriers in a large community based integrated health system in Northern California. METHODS A retrospective cohort of deleterious BRCA mutation carriers (1995-2012) was evaluated for consistency with NCCN guidelines for risk reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) by age of 35-40, risk reducing mastectomy (RRM), as well as surveillance practices, including pelvic ultrasound, CA 125, mammogram, and breast MRI. Secondary outcomes included the use of chemoprevention and hormone replacement. RESULTS Of the 305 eligible women, 170 were BRCA1 positive, and 135 were BRCA2 positive. Seventy four percent underwent RRSO with only 17% under age 40, while 44% underwent RRM. The median time from the test to both RRSO and RRM was 6 months. In the first year after BRCA diagnosis, 45% underwent a pelvic ultrasound, dropping to 2.3% by year 5. In year 1, 47% had a CA 125, dropping to 2% by year 5. The number of women undergoing annual MRI and mammogram fell similarly over time. Sixteen percent of BRCA carriers used oral contraceptives (OCPs) and only one patient used tamoxifen for chemoprevention. CONCLUSION Uptake of RRSO in BRCA carriers in a population based health system is high, however the majority of women do not have RRSO by the NCCN recommended age. Compliance with surveillance is low and rapidly declines even 1 year out from testing. Attention needs to be focused on the earlier identification of BRCA mutation carriers with consolidated and standardized care to improve risk reduction.

Five-year risks of CIN 3+ and cervical cancer among women with HPV testing of ASC-US Pap results.

Objective New screening guidelines recommend that human papillomavirus (HPV)–negative/atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US) results be considered as equivalent to HPV-negative/Pap-negative results, leading to rescreening in 5 years. However, despite ample data, the routine clinical performance of HPV testing of women with ASC-US has not been adequately documented. Methods We estimated 5-year risks of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 3+ and of cancer among 2 groups of women between 2003 and 2010 at Kaiser Permanente Northern California: 27,050 aged 30 to 64 years who underwent HPV and Pap cotesting and had an ASC-US Pap result and 12,209 aged 25 to 29 years who underwent HPV triage of ASC-US. Results Five-year risks of CIN 3+ and of cancer among women aged 30 to 64 years testing HPV-negative/ASC-US and among 923,152 women testing Pap-negative alone were similar although statistically distinguishable (CIN 3+, 0.43% vs 0.26%, p = .001; cancer, 0.050% vs 0.025%, p = .1). The increased risk of cancer after HPV-negative/ASC-US versus Pap-negative alone was confined to women aged 60 to 64 years (0.26% vs 0.035%, p = .3). Five-year risks of CIN 3+ and cancer among women with HPV-negative/ASC-US results were substantially higher than those among women testing HPV-negative/Pap-negative (CIN 3+, 0.43% vs 0.08%, p < .0001; cancer, 0.050% vs 0.011%, p = .003). For women aged 30 to 64 years testing HPV-positive/ASC-US, 5-year risks of CIN 3+ and cancer were slightly higher than those among 9,374 women with low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL) (CIN 3+, 6.8% vs 5.2%, p = .0007; cancer, 0.41% vs 0.16%, p = .04). Similar patterns were seen for women aged 25 to 29 years. Conclusions Women with HPV-negative/ASC-US had a similar risk as women testing Pap-negative alone but had a higher risk than women testing HPV-negative/Pap-negative. Based upon the principle of “equal management of equal risks,” our findings support the equal management of women with HPV-negative/ASC-US and those with Pap-negative alone, except for exiting women from screening because cancer risks at ages 60 to 64 years may be higher for women testing HPV-negative/ASC-US. Our findings also support managing HPV-positive/ASC-US and LSIL similarly.

A Study of Genotyping for Management of Human Papillomavirus-Positive, Cytology-Negative Cervical Screening Results

ABSTRACT The effective management of women with human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive, cytology-negative results is critical to the introduction of HPV testing into cervical screening. HPV typing has been recommended for colposcopy triage, but it is not clear which combinations of high-risk HPV types provide clinically useful information. This study included 18,810 women with Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2)-positive, cytology-negative results and who were age ≥30 years from Kaiser Permanente Northern California. The median follow-up was 475 days (interquartile range [IQR], 0 to 1,077 days; maximum, 2,217 days). The baseline specimens from 482 cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or cancer (CIN3+) and 3,517 random HC2-positive noncases were genotyped using 2 PCR-based methods. Using the case-control sampling fractions, the 3-year cumulative risks of CIN3+ were calculated for each individual high-risk HPV type. The 3-year cumulative risk of CIN3+ among all women with HC2-positive, cytology-negative results was 4.6%. HPV16 status conferred the greatest type-specific risk stratification; women with HC2-positive/HPV16-positive results had a 10.6% risk of CIN3+, while women with HC-2 positive/HPV16-negative results had a much lower risk of 2.4%. The next most informative HPV types and their risks in HPV-positive women were HPV33 (5.9%) and HPV18 (5.9%). With regard to the etiologic fraction, 20 of 71 cases of cervical adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS) and adenocarcinoma in the cohort were positive for HPV18. HPV16 genotyping provides risk stratification useful for guiding clinical management; the risk among HPV16-positive women clearly exceeds the U.S. consensus risk threshold for immediate colposcopy referral. HPV18 is of particular interest because of its association with difficult-to-detect glandular lesions. There is a less clear clinical value of distinguishing the other high-risk HPV types.

Five-year risk of recurrence after treatment of CIN 2, CIN 3, or AIS: performance of HPV and Pap cotesting in posttreatment management.

Objective After excisional treatment, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN 2+) can recur. It is not clear how many negative posttreatment Pap or cotest results are needed to ensure adequate safety against CIN 2+ before returning to extended retesting intervals. Methods We observed 5-year risks of CIN 2+ for 3 follow-up management strategies after treatment (Pap-alone, human papillomavirus [HPV]-alone, and HPV/Pap cotesting) for 3,273 women aged 25 years and older who were treated for CIN 2, CIN 3, or adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS) between 2003 and 2010 at Kaiser Permanente Northern California. Results Five-year risks of recurrent CIN 2+ after treatment varied both by antecedent screening test result and the histology of the treated lesion. The risk ranged from 5% for CIN 2 preceded by HPV-positive/atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion to 16% for CIN 3/AIS preceded by atypical glandular cells (AGC)/atypical squamous cells cannot rule out high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (ASC-H)/high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion or worse (HSIL+) (p < .0001). However, after posttreatment negative tests, risks were lowered and similar regardless of antecedent screening test and histology of treated disease. The 5-year recurrent CIN 2+ risk after a negative posttreatment cotest (2.4%) was lower than that following a negative HPV test (3.7%, p = .3) or negative Pap result (4.2%, p = .1). Two negative posttreatment tests of each kind conferred slightly lower 5-year CIN 2+ risk than one (2 negative Pap tests vs. 1, 2.7% vs 4.2%, p = .2; 2 negative HPV tests vs. 1, 2.7% vs 3.7%, p = .7; 2 negative cotests vs. 1, 1.5% vs 2.4%, p = .8). The 5-year CIN 2+ risk after 2 negative cotests of 1.5% (95% confidence interval = 0.3%–7.2%) approached the 0.68% risk after a negative Pap test during routine screening. Conclusions Women with antecedent AGC/ASC-H/HSIL+ Pap results or those treated for CIN 3/AIS had a substantial risk of developing CIN 2+ posttreatment. On the basis of the principle of “equal management of equal risks,” after negative test results posttreatment, no subgroup of women achieved risk sufficiently low to return to 5-year routine screening. However, negative cotests after treatment provided more reassurance against recurrent CIN 2+ than either negative Pap tests or HPV tests alone.

HPV16 Sublineage Associations With Histology-Specific Cancer Risk Using HPV Whole-Genome Sequences in 3200 Women

BACKGROUND HPV16 is a common sexually transmitted infection although few infections lead to cervical precancer/cancer; we cannot distinguish nor mechanistically explain why only certain infections progress. HPV16 can be classified into four main evolutionary-derived variant lineages (A, B, C, D) that have been previously suggested to have varying disease risks. METHODS We used a high-throughput HPV16 whole-genome sequencing assay to investigate variant lineage risk among 3215 HPV16-infected women. Using sublineages A1/A2 as the reference, we assessed all variant lineage associations with infection outcome over three or more years of follow-up: 1107 control subjects (<CIN2), 906 CIN2, 1008 CIN3, 69 squamous cell carcinomas (SCC), 85 adenocarcinomas in situ (AIS), and 40 adenocarcinomas. Logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS A4 sublineage was associated with an increased risk of cancer, specifically adenocarcinoma (OR = 9.81, 95% CI = 2.02 to 47.69, P = 4.7x10(-03)). Lineage B had a lower risk of CIN3 (OR = 0.51, 95% CI = 0. 28 to 0.91, P = 02) while lineage C showed increased risk (OR = 2.06, 95% CI = 1.09 to 3.89, P = 03). D2/D3 sublineages were strongly associated with an increased risk of CIN3 and cancer, particularly D2 (OR for cancer = 28.48, 95% CI = 9.27 to 87.55, P = 5.0x10(-09)). D2 had the strongest increased risk of glandular lesions, AIS (OR = 29.22, 95% CI = 8.94 to 95.51, P = 2.3x10(-08)), and adenocarcinomas (OR = 137.34, 95% CI = 37.21 to 506.88, P = 1.5x10(-13)). Moreover, the risk of precancer and cancer for specific variant lineages varied by a womens race/ethnicity; those women whose race/ethnicity matched that of the infecting HPV16 variant had an increased risk of CIN3 + (P < 001). CONCLUSIONS Specific HPV16 variant sublineages strongly influence risk of histologic types of precancer and cancer, and viral genetic variation may help explain its unique carcinogenic properties.

Occult Uterine Sarcoma and Leiomyosarcoma: Incidence of and Survival Associated With Morcellation.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence of occult uterine sarcoma and leiomyosarcoma in hysterectomies for leiomyomas and the risk associated with their morcellation. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study. All uterine sarcomas from 2006–2013 in an integrated health care system were identified. Age- and race-specific incidences of occult uterine sarcoma were calculated. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed. Crude and adjusted risk ratios of recurrence and death associated with morcellation at 1, 2, and 3 years were estimated using Poisson regression with inverse probability weighting. RESULTS: There were 125 hysterectomies with occult uterine sarcomas identified among 34,728 hysterectomies performed for leiomyomas. The incidence of occult uterine sarcoma and leiomyosarcoma was 1 of 278 or 3.60 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.97–4.23) and 1 of 429 or 2.33 (95% CI 1.83–2.84) per 1,000 hysterectomies. For stage I leiomyosarcoma (n=111), eight (7.2%) were power and 27 (24.3%) nonpower-morcellated. The unadjusted 3-year probability of disease-free survival for no morcellation, power and nonpower morcellation was 0.54, 0.19, and 0.51, respectively (P=.15); overall survival was 0.64, 0.75, and 0.68, respectively (P=.97). None of the adjusted risk ratios for recurrence or death were significant except for death at 1 year for power and nonpower morcellation groups combined (6/33) compared with no morcellation (4/76) (5.12, 95% CI 1.33–19.76, P=.02). We had inadequate power to infer differences for all other comparisons including 3-year survival and power morcellation. CONCLUSION: Morcellation is associated with decreased early survival of women with occult leiomyosarcomas. We could not accurately assess associations between power morcellation and 3-year survival as a result of small numbers.

Follow-up testing after colposcopy: five-year risk of CIN 2+ after a colposcopic diagnosis of CIN 1 or less.

Objective Most women referred for colposcopy are not diagnosed with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN 2+) but, nonetheless, are typically asked to return much sooner than their next routine screening interval in 3 to 5 years. An important question is how many subsequent negative Pap results, or negative Pap and human papillomavirus (HPV) cotest results, are needed before returning to an extended retesting interval. Methods We estimated 5-year risks of CIN 2+ for 3 follow-up management strategies after colposcopy (Pap-alone, HPV-alone, and cotesting) for 20,319 women aged 25 years and older screened from 2003 to 2010 at Kaiser Permanente Northern California who were referred for colposcopy but for whom CIN 2+ was not initially diagnosed (i.e., “women with CIN 1/negative colposcopy”). Results Screening results immediately antecedent to CIN 1/negative colposcopy influenced subsequent 5-year CIN 2+ risk: women with an antecedent HPV-positive/atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) or low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL) Pap had a lower risk (10%) than those with antecedent atypical squamous cells cannot rule out HSIL (ASC-H; 16%, p < .0001) or high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion or worse (HSIL+; 24%, p < .0001). For women with an antecedent HPV-positive/ASC-US or LSIL, a single negative cotest approximately 1 year after colposcopy predicted lower subsequent 5-year risk of CIN 2+ (1.1%) than 2 sequential negative HPV tests (1.8%, p = .3) or 2 sequential negative Pap results (4.0%, p < .0001). For those with an antecedent ASC-H or HSIL+ Pap, 1 negative cotest 1 year after colposcopy predicted lower subsequent 5-year risk of CIN 2+ (2.2%) than 1 negative HPV test (4.4%, p = .4) or 1 negative Pap (7.0%, p = .06); insufficient data existed to calculate the risk after sequential negative cotests for women with high-grade antecedent cytology. Conclusions Women with a CIN 1/negative colposcopy followed by negative postcolposcopy tests did not achieve sufficiently low CIN 2+ risk to return to 5-year routine screening. For women with antecedent HPV-positive/ASC-US or LSIL, a single negative postcolposcopy cotest reduced their risk to a level consistent with a 3-year return. For women with antecedent ASC-H or HSIL+, no single negative test result sufficed to reduce their risk to a level consistent with a 3-year return.

Deep sequencing of HPV16 genomes: A new high-throughput tool for exploring the carcinogenicity and natural history of HPV16 infection

For unknown reasons, there is huge variability in risk conferred by different HPV types and, remarkably, strong differences even between closely related variant lineages within each type. HPV16 is a uniquely powerful carcinogenic type, causing approximately half of cervical cancer and most other HPV-related cancers. To permit the large-scale study of HPV genome variability and precancer/cancer, starting with HPV16 and cervical cancer, we developed a high-throughput next-generation sequencing (NGS) whole-genome method. We designed a custom HPV16 AmpliSeq™ panel that generated 47 overlapping amplicons covering 99% of the genome sequenced on the Ion Torrent Proton platform. After validating with Sanger, the current “gold standard” of sequencing, in 89 specimens with concordance of 99.9%, we used our NGS method and custom annotation pipeline to sequence 796 HPV16-positive exfoliated cervical cell specimens. The median completion rate per sample was 98.0%. Our method enabled us to discover novel SNPs, large contiguous deletions suggestive of viral integration (OR of 27.3, 95% CI 3.3–222, P=0.002), and the sensitive detection of variant lineage coinfections. This method represents an innovative high-throughput, ultra-deep coverage technique for HPV genomic sequencing, which, in turn, enables the investigation of the role of genetic variation in HPV epidemiology and carcinogenesis.