Tiny Masupe

Trends and determinants of survival for over 200 000 patients on antiretroviral treatment in the Botswana National Program: 2002–2013

Objectives:To determine the incidence and risk factors of mortality for all HIV-infected patients receiving antiretroviral treatment at public and private healthcare facilities in the Botswana National HIV/AIDS Treatment Programme. Design:We studied routinely collected data from 226 030 patients enrolled in the Botswana National HIV/AIDS Treatment Programme from 2002 to 2013. Methods:A person-years (P-Y) approach was used to analyse all-cause mortality and follow-up rates for all HIV-infected individuals with documented antiretroviral therapy initiation dates. Marginal structural modelling was utilized to determine the effect of treatment on survival for those with documented drug regimens. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of our results. Results:Median follow-up time was 37 months (interquartile range 11–75). Mortality was highest during the first 3 months after treatment initiation at 11.79 (95% confidence interval 11.49–12.11) deaths per 100 P-Y, but dropped to 1.01 (95% confidence interval 0.98–1.04) deaths per 100 P-Y after the first year of treatment. Twelve-month mortality declined from 7 to 2% of initiates during 2002–2012. Tenofovir was associated with lower mortality than stavudine and zidovudine. Conclusion:The observed mortality rates have been declining over time; however, mortality in the first year, particularly first 3 months of antiretroviral treatment, remains a distinct problem. This analysis showed lower mortality with regimens containing tenofovir compared with zidovudine and stavudine. CD4+ cell count less than 100 cells/&mgr;l, older age and being male were associated with higher odds of mortality.

Variation in attrition at subnational level: review of the Botswana National HIV/AIDS Treatment (Masa) programme data (2002-2013)

To evaluate the variation in all‐cause attrition [mortality and loss to follow‐up (LTFU)] among HIV‐infected individuals in Botswana by health district during the rapid and massive scale‐up of the National Treatment Program.

Impact of Health System Inputs on Health Outcome: A Multilevel Longitudinal Analysis of Botswana National Antiretroviral Program (2002-2013)

Objective To measure the association between the number of doctors, nurses and hospital beds per 10,000 people and individual HIV-infected patient outcomes in Botswana. Design Analysis of routinely collected longitudinal data from 97,627 patients who received ART through the Botswana National HIV/AIDS Treatment Program across all 24 health districts from 2002 to 2013. Doctors, nurses, and hospital bed density data at district-level were collected from various sources. Methods A multilevel, longitudinal analysis method was used to analyze the data at both patient- and district-level simultaneously to measure the impact of the health system input at district-level on probability of death or loss-to-follow-up (LTFU) at the individual level. A marginal structural model was used to account for LTFU over time. Results Increasing doctor density from one doctor to two doctors per 10,000 population decreased the predicted probability of death for each patient by 27%. Nurse density changes from 20 nurses to 25 nurses decreased the predicted probability of death by 28%. Nine percent decrease was noted in predicted mortality of an individual in the Masa program for every five hospital bed density increase. Conclusion Considerable variation was observed in doctors, nurses, and hospital bed density across health districts. Predictive margins of mortality and LTFU were inversely correlated with doctor, nurse and hospital bed density. The doctor density had much greater impact than nurse or bed density on mortality or LTFU of individual patients. While long-term investment in training more healthcare professionals should be made, redistribution of available doctors and nurses can be a feasible solution in the short term.

Information needs of Botswana health care workers and perceptions of wikipedia

BACKGROUND Since the UN Human Rights Councils recognition on the subject in 2011, the right to access the Internet and information is now considered one of the most basic human rights of global citizens [1,2]. Despite this, an information gap between developed and resource-limited countries remains, and there is scant research on actual information needs of workers themselves. The Republic of Botswana represents a fertile ground to address existing gaps in research, policy, and practice, due to its demonstrated gap in access to information and specialists among rural health care workers (HCWs), burgeoning mHealth capacity, and a timely offer from Orange Telecommunications to access Wikipedia for free on mobile platforms for Botswana subscribers. OBJECTIVES In this study, we sought to identify clinical information needs of HCWs of Botswana and their perception of Wikipedia as a clinical tool. METHODS Twenty-eight facilitated focus groups, consisting of 113 HCWs of various cadres based at district hospitals, clinics, and health posts around Botswana, were employed. Transcription and thematic analysis were performed for those groups. RESULTS Access to the Internet is limited at most facilities. Most HCWs placed high importance upon using Botswana Ministry of Health (MoH) resources for obtaining credible clinical information. However, the clinical applicability of these materials was limited due to discrepancies amongst sources, potentially outdated information, and poor optimization for time-sensitive circumstances. As a result, HCWs faced challenges, such as loss of patient trust and compromises in patient care. Potential solutions posed by HCWs to address these issues included: multifaceted improvements in Internet infrastructure, access to up-to-date information, transfer of knowledge from MoH to HCW, and improving content and applicability of currently available information. Topics of clinical information needs were broad and encompassed: HIV, TB (Tuberculosis), OB/GYN (Obstetrics and Gynecology), and Pediatrics. HCW attitudes towards Wikipedia were variable; some trusted Wikipedia as a reliable point of care information resource whereas others thought that its use should be restricted and monitored by the MoH. CONCLUSIONS There is a demonstrated need for accessible, reliable, and up-to-date information to aid clinical practice in Botswana. Attitudes towards Wikipedia as an open information resource tool are at best, split. Therefore, future studies are necessary to determine the accuracy, currency, and relevancy of Wikipedia articles on the health topics identified by health care workers as areas of information need. More broadly speaking, future efforts should be dedicated to configure a quality-controlled, readily accessible mobile platform based clinical information application tool fitting for Botswana.

Relationship between combination antiretroviral therapy regimens and diabetes mellitus-related comorbidities among HIV patients in Gaborone Botswana

BackgroundCombination antiretroviral therapy (cARTs) regiments are known to prolong the recipients’ life even though they are risk factors for diabetes mellitus-related comorbidities (DRCs). We sought to: (i) examine cART relationship with DRCs among patients attending HIV clinics in Gaborone, Botswana (which cART regimens are associated with shorter/longer time to the event), (ii) characterize patients’ underlying biomedical and demographic risk factors of DRC and identify the most important, (iii) investigate survival of patients on different cART regimens in the presence of these risk factors.MethodsData from two major HIV clinics in Botswana were reviewed. Relationships between different cART regimens and DRCs were investigated among 531 recipients. Recipients’ DRC risk factors were identified. Cox regression model was run. Unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios were computed, and hazard and survival functions for different cART regimens were plotted.ResultsMajor findings were: patients on second- and third-line cART were less likely to develop DRCs earlier than those on first-line cART. Patients with CD4 count ≤ 200 cells/mm3 at cART initiation were more likely to develop DRCs earlier than those who had CD4 count > 200 cells/mm3. Overweight patients at cART initiation had a higher risk of developing DRCs earlier than those who had normal body mass index. Males had a lower risk of developing DRCs earlier than females.ConclusionThe risk of new onset of DRC among cART recipients is a function of the type of cART regimen, duration of exposure and patients’ underlying biomedical and demographic DRC risk factors. The study has provided a survival model highlighting DRCs’ significant prognostic factors to guide clinical care, policy and management of recipients of cARTs. Further studies in the same direction will likely improve the survival to the development of DRC of every cART recipient in this community.

Addressing the Challenge of P-Value and Sample Size when the Significance is Borderline: The Test of Random Duplication of Participants as a New Approach

The issue of borderline p -value seems to divide health scientists into two schools of thought. One school of thought argues that when the p -value is greater than or equal to the statistical significance cut-off level of 0.05, it should not be considered statistically significant and the null hypothesis should be accepted no matter how close the p -value is to the 0.05. The other school of thought believes that by doing so one might be committing a Type 2 error and possibly missing valuable information. In this paper, we discuss an approach to address this issue and suggest the test of random duplication of participants as a way to interpret study outcomes when the statistical significance is borderline. This discussion shows the irrefutability of the concept of borderline statistical significance, however, it is important that one demonstrates whether a borderline statistical significance is truly borderline or not. Since the absence of statistical significance is not necessarily evidence of absence of effect, one needs to double check if a borderline statistical significance is indeed borderline or not. The p -value should not be looked at as a rule of thumb for accepting or rejecting the null hypothesis but rather as a guide for further action or analysis that leads to correct conclusions.

A system to evaluate the presence of a diarrheal epidemic caused by Shigella and Salmonella

Epidemic modeling of a disease like diarrhea help in understanding the dynamics of the disease as well as preventing it. According to the pathogenesis, models for Shigella and Salmonella have been formulated and the basic reproduction number (R0) has been evaluated. These models have been built up into a user-friendly graphical user interface that displays the presence and effects of the epidemic. It was established that as long as R0<;1, there will be no epidemic. The outputs from the system are very clear and help in determining the extent and existence of the epidemic.