Titus O. Awokuse

Is the export‐led growth hypothesis valid for Canada?

Empirical evidence linking exports to economic growth has been mixed and inconclusive. This study re-examine the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for Canada by testing for Granger causality from exports to national output growth using vector error correction models (VECM) and the augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology developed in Toda and Yamamoto (1995). Application of recent developments in time series modeling and the inclusion of relevant variables omitted in previous studies help clarify the contradictory results from prior studies on the Canadian economy. The empirical results suggest that a long-run steady state exists among the models six variables and that Granger causal flow is unidirectional from real exports to real GDP.

Trade openness and economic growth: is growth export-led or import-led?

Most previous investigations have only focused on the effect of export expansion on economic growth while ignoring the potential growth-enhancing contribution of imports. This article re-examines the relationship between trade and economic growth in Argentina, Colombia, and Peru with emphasis on both the role of exports and imports. Granger causality tests and impulse response functions were used to examine whether growth in trade stimulate economic growth (or vice versa). The results suggest that the singular focus of past studies on exports as the engine of growth may be misleading. Although there is some empirical evidence supporting export-led growth, the empirical support for import-led growth hypothesis is relatively stronger. In some cases, there is also evidence for reverse causality from gross domestic product growth to exports and imports.

Exports, economic growth and causality in Korea

Using recent developments in econometric techniques, this article re-examines the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for Korea over 1963–2001. The Granger-causality tests was based on two testing approaches: vector error correction modelling (VECM) approach outlined in Toda and Philips; and the augmented levels VAR modelling with integrated and cointegrated processes (of arbitrary orders) separately introduced by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and Dolado and Lutkepohl (1996). Empirical evidence from causality tests based on the two alternative approaches indicates that the causal link between real exports and real GDP growth is bi-directional. Additional determinants of growth are also found to be significant.

The informational role of commodity prices in formulating monetary policy: a reexamination

Abstract This paper reexamines the issue of whether commodity prices provide useful information for formulating monetary policy through the application of a recent development in time series methodology developed by Toda and Yamamoto [J. Econometrics 66 (1995) 225–250]. We found that commodity prices signal the future direction of the economy.

Asset storability and hedging effectiveness in commodity futures markets

This paper examines risk minimization hedging effectiveness for major storable and nonstorable agricultural commodity futures markets. Based on the error correction model - bivariate GARCH frameworks, some evidence is found that the hedging effectiveness is stronger for storable commodities than nonstorable commodities under consideration. The finding illustrates an important difference between storable and nonstorable commodities with regard to their hedging function.

Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Agricultural Prices

Existing empirical evidence on the impact of macroeconomic variables on agriculture remains mixed and inconclusive. This paper re-examines the dynamic relationship between monetary policy variables and agricultural prices using alternative vector autoregression (VAR) type model specifications. Directed acyclic graph theory is proposed as an alternative modeling approach to supplement existing modeling methods. Similar to results in other studies, this studys findings show that over the time period analyzed (1975–2000), changes to money supply as a monetary policy tool had little or no impact on agricultural prices. The primary macroeconomic policy instrument that affects agricultural prices is the exchange rate, which is shown to be directly linked to interest rate, a source of monetary policy shock.

Export-led growth and the Japanese economy: evidence from VAR and directed acyclic graphs

This paper explores the causal relationship between real exports and GDP growth in Japan using two recently developed causal modelling approaches. Using Japanese time series, the paper employed the augmented VAR methodology developed by Toda and Yamamoto to test for Granger non-causality. Then, a more recently developed technique of directed acyclic graphs (DAG) was also used in providing over-identifying restrictions on the innovations from a vector autoregression (VAR). In contrast to prior analyses, the application of DAG techniques allows for the examination of both contemporaneous and dynamic causal structure of the exports-productivity nexus. The empirical results reveal that the causal path between exports and GDP growth in Japan is bi-directional. Furthermore, other variables such as capital and foreign output are also significant determinants of productivity growth in Japan.

Are There Efficiency Gains from the Removal of Natural Resource Export Restrictions? Evidence from British Columbia

Log export bans (LEBs) are a popular development tool utilised by developing nations with sizable endowments of timber; however, the actual impact of these policies is debatable. British Columbia has a developed forestry sector and still maintains a LEB. This trade restriction continually creates conflicts with Canadas international trade partners, including the United States. This paper examines the efficiency implications of a hypothetical removal of roundwood export restrictions in British Columbia using roundwood price and quantity data from 1995 to 2008. A time‐series econometric approach is utilised to determine supply and demand elasticities for British Columbias roundwood. Empirical results from a vector error correction model suggest that a removal of export restrictions will generate an overall increase of approximately

Knowledge Capital, International Trade, and Foreign Direct Investment: A Sectoral Analysis

347.91 million US dollars per year to British Columbias forest economy.

Does Foreign Intellectual Property Rights Protection Affect US Exports and FDI

The knowledge-capital (KC) model of MNEs is now a widely adopted empirical approach to explaining the location and production decisions of global firms based on both horizontal and vertical motivations. While most of the existing studies have focused on highly aggregated national data, we extend this model to sectoral data consisting of broad manufacturing industries and explicitly account for the dynamic nature of international investment data. The empirical results from a dynamic panel data analysis indicate that that the predictions of the KC model regarding MNE behavior vary by the type of industry. Production processes in electronics and transportation-equipment are more characterized by efficient vertical specialization of R&D activities and assembly, while other sectors display more complex motivations.