Tobias Bolch

The State and Fate of Himalayan Glaciers

Going More Slowly Himalayan glaciers sometimes are called the “Third Pole” because of the amount of snow and ice they contain. Despite their importance as a global water reservoir and their essential role in Asian hydrology, how their mass is changing in response to global warming is not well known. Bolch et al. (p. 310) review the contemporary evolution of glaciers in the Himalayan region, including those of the less well sampled region of the Karakoram to the Northwest, in order to provide a current, comprehensive picture of how they are changing. Most Himalayan glaciers are retreating at rates comparable to glaciers elsewhere in the world. In the Karakorum, on the other hand, advancing glaciers are more common. Himalayan glaciers are a focus of public and scientific debate. Prevailing uncertainties are of major concern because some projections of their future have serious implications for water resources. Most Himalayan glaciers are losing mass at rates similar to glaciers elsewhere, except for emerging indications of stability or mass gain in the Karakoram. A poor understanding of the processes affecting them, combined with the diversity of climatic conditions and the extremes of topographical relief within the region, makes projections speculative. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that dramatic changes in total runoff will occur soon, although continuing shrinkage outside the Karakoram will increase the seasonality of runoff, affect irrigation and hydropower, and alter hazards.

A Reconciled Estimate of Glacier Contributions to Sea Level Rise: 2003 to 2009

Melting Away We assume the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets are the main drivers of global sea-level rise, but how large is the contribution from other sources of glacial ice? Gardner et al. (p. 852) synthesize data from glacialogical inventories to find that glaciers in the Arctic, Canada, Alaska, coastal Greenland, the southern Andes, and high-mountain Asia contribute approximately as much melt water as the ice sheets themselves: 260 billion tons per year between 2003 and 2009, accounting for about 30% of the observed sea-level rise during that period. The contribution of glaciers to sea level rise is nearly as much as that of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets combined. Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are losing large amounts of water to the world’s oceans. However, estimates of their contribution to sea level rise disagree. We provide a consensus estimate by standardizing existing, and creating new, mass-budget estimates from satellite gravimetry and altimetry and from local glaciological records. In many regions, local measurements are more negative than satellite-based estimates. All regions lost mass during 2003–2009, with the largest losses from Arctic Canada, Alaska, coastal Greenland, the southern Andes, and high-mountain Asia, but there was little loss from glaciers in Antarctica. Over this period, the global mass budget was –259 ± 28 gigatons per year, equivalent to the combined loss from both ice sheets and accounting for 29 ± 13% of the observed sea level rise.

Planimetric and volumetric glacier changes in the Khumbu Himal, Nepal, since 1962 using Corona, Landsat TM and ASTER data

Multitemporal space imagery from 1962 (Corona KH-4), 1992 (Landsat TM), 2001 and 2005 (Terra ASTER) was used to investigate the glacier changes in the Khumbu Himal, Nepal. The ice coverage in the investigation area decreased by about 5% between 1962 and 2005, with the highest retreat rates occurring between 1992 and 2001. The debris coverage increased concomitantly with the decrease in total glacier area. The clean-ice area decreased by >10%. Digital terrain model (DTM) generation from the early Corona KH-4 stereo data in this high-relief terrain is time-consuming, and the results still contain some elevation errors. However, these are minor in the snow-free areas with gentle slopes. Thus comparison of the surfaces of the debris-covered glacier tongues based on the Corona DTM and an ASTER DTM is feasible and shows the downwasting of the debris-covered glaciers. The highest downwasting rates, more than 20 m (>0.5 m a -1 ), can be found near the transition zone between the active and the stagnant glacier parts of the debris-covered glacier tongues. The downwasting is lower, but still evident, in the active ice areas and at the snout with thick debris cover. All investigated debris- covered glaciers in the study area show similar behaviour. The estimated volume loss for the investigated debris-covered glacier tongues is 0.19 km 3 .

On the accuracy of glacier outlines derived from remote-sensing data

Abstract Deriving glacier outlines from satellite data has become increasingly popular in the past decade. In particular when glacier outlines are used as a base for change assessment, it is important to know how accurate they are. Calculating the accuracy correctly is challenging, as appropriate reference data (e.g. from higher-resolution sensors) are seldom available. Moreover, after the required manual correction of the raw outlines (e.g. for debris cover), such a comparison would only reveal the accuracy of the analyst rather than of the algorithm applied. Here we compare outlines for clean and debris-covered glaciers, as derived from single and multiple digitizing by different or the same analysts on very high- (1 m) and medium-resolution (30 m) remote-sensing data, against each other and to glacier outlines derived from automated classification of Landsat Thematic Mapper data. Results show a high variability in the interpretation of debris-covered glacier parts, largely independent of the spatial resolution (area differences were up to 30%), and an overall good agreement for clean ice with sufficient contrast to the surrounding terrain (differences ∼5%). The differences of the automatically derived outlines from a reference value are as small as the standard deviation of the manual digitizations from several analysts. Based on these results, we conclude that automated mapping of clean ice is preferable to manual digitization and recommend using the latter method only for required corrections of incorrectly mapped glacier parts (e.g. debris cover, shadow).

Glacier changes in the Garhwal Himalaya, India, from 1968 to 2006 based on remote sensing

Glacier outlines are mapped for the upper Bhagirathi and Saraswati/Alaknanda basins of the Garhwal Himalaya using Corona and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) satellite images acquired in 1968 and 2006, respectively. A subset of glaciers was also mapped using Landsat TM images acquired in 1990. Glacier area decreased from 599.9 ± 15.6 km 2 (1968) to 572.5 ± 18.0 km 2 (2006), a loss of 4.6 ± 2.8%. Glaciers in the Saraswati/Alaknanda basin and upper Bhagirathi basin lost 18.4 ± 9.0 km 2 (5.7 ± 2.7%) and 9.0 ± 7.7 km 2 (3.3 ± 2.8%), respectively, from 1968 to 2006. Garhwal Himalayan glacier retreat rates are lower than previously reported. More recently (1990–2006), recession rates have increased. The number of glaciers in the study region increased from 82 in 1968 to 88 in 2006 due to fragmentation of glaciers. Smaller glaciers ( 2 ) lost 19.4 ± 2.5% (0.51 ± 0.07% a −1 ) of their ice, significantly more than for larger glaciers (>50 km 2 ) which lost 2.8 ± 2.7% (0.074 ± 0.071 % a −1 ). From 1968 to 2006, the debris-covered glacier area increased by 17.8 ± 3.1% (0.46 ± 0.08% a −1 ) in the Saraswati/Alaknanda basin and 11.8 ± 3.0% (0.31 ± 0.08% a −1 ) in the upper Bhagirathi basin. Climate records from Mukhim (∼1900 m a.s.l.) and Bhojbasa (∼3780 m a.s.l.) meteorological stations were used to analyze climate conditions and trends, but the data are too limited to make firm conclusions regarding glacier–climate interactions.

Glacier mass changes on the Tibetan Plateau 2003-2009 derived from ICESat laser altimetry measurements

Glacier mass changes are a valuable indicator of climate variability and monsoon oscillation on the underexplored Tibetan Plateau. In this study data from the Ice Cloud and Elevation Satellite (ICESat) is employed to estimate elevation and mass changes of glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau between 2003 and 2009. In order to get a representative sample size of ICESat measurements, glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau were grouped into eight climatically homogeneous sub-regions. Most negative mass budgets of ? 0.77 ? 0.35?m?w.e.?a?1 were found for the Qilian Mountains and eastern Kunlun Mountains while a mass gain of + 0.37 ? 0.25?m?w.e.?a?1 was found in the westerly-dominated north-central part of the Tibetan Plateau. A total annual mass budget of ? 15.6 ? 10.1?Gt?a?1 was estimated for the eight sub-regions sufficiently covered by ICESat data which represents ?80% of the glacier area on the Tibetan Plateau. 13.9 ? 8.9?Gt?a?1 (or 0.04 ? 0.02?mm?a?1 sea-level equivalent) of the total mass budget contributed ?directly? to the global sea-level rise while 1.7 ? 1.9?Gt?a?1 drained into endorheic basins on the plateau.

Glacier mapping: a review with special reference to the Indian Himalayas:

This paper deals with the development of glacier mapping and glacier fluctuations since the mid-nineteenth century, with special reference to the Indian Himalayas, and the contributions of the Survey of India and the Geological Survey of India. In addition, it presents a review of the limitations and challenges relating to: the mapping of clean-ice and debris-covered glaciers; the comparison of different data sets; and the measurement of glacier volume changes based on multitemporal digital elevation models. Possible solutions are discussed, and the emerging areas of glacier mapping research and applications for the Indian Himalayas are highlighted.

Mapping of debris-covered glaciers in the Garhwal Himalayas using ASTER DEMs and thermal data

Mapping of debris-covered glaciers using remote-sensing techniques is recognized as one of the greatest challenges for generating glacier inventories and automated glacier change analysis. The use of visible (VIS) and near-infrared (NIR) bands does not provide sufficient continual information to detect debris-covered ice with remote-sensing data. This article presents a semi-automated mapping method for the debris-covered glaciers of the Garhwal Himalayas based on an Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) digital elevation model (DEM) and thermal data. Morphometric parameters such as slope, plan curvature and profile curvature were computed by means of the ASTER DEM and organized in similar surface groups using cluster analysis. A thermal mask was generated from a single band of an ASTER thermal image, while the clean-ice glaciers were identified using a band ratio based on ASTER bands 3 and 4. Vector maps were drawn up from the output of the cluster analysis, the thermal mask and the band ratio mask for the preparation of the final outlines of the debris-covered glaciers using geographic information system (GIS) overlay operations. The semi-automated mapped debris-covered glacier outline of Gangotri Glacier derived from 2006 ASTER data varied by about 5% from the manually outlined debris-covered glacier area of the Cartosat-1 high-resolution image from the same year. By contrast, outlines derived from the method developed using the 2001 ASTER DEM and Landsat thermal data varied by only 0.5% from manually digitized outlines based on Indian Remote Sensing Satellite (IRS)-1C panchromatic (PAN) data. We found that post-depositional sedimentation by debris flow/mass movement was a great hindrance in the fully automated mapping of debris-covered glaciers in the polygenetic environment of the Himalayas. In addition, the resolution of ASTER stereo data and thermal band data limits the automated mapping of small debris-covered glaciers with adjacent end moraine. However, the results obtained for Gangotri Glacier confirm the strong potential of the approach presented.

Glacier Water Resources on the Eastern Slopes of the Canadian Rocky Mountains

Maps of glacier area in western Canada have recently been generated for 1985 and 2005 (Bolch et al., 2010), providing the first complete inventory of glacier cover in Alberta and British Columbia. Western Canada lost about 11% of its glacier area over this period, with area loss exceeding 20% on the eastern slopes of the Canadian Rockies. Glacier area is difficult to relate to glacier volume, which is the attribute of relevance to water resources and global sea level rise. We apply several possible volume-area scaling relations and glacier slope-thickness relations to estimate the volume of glacier ice in the headwater regions of rivers that spring from the eastern slopes of the Canadian Rocky Mountains, arriving at an estimate of 55 ± 15 km3. We cannot preclude higher values, because the available data indicate that large valley glaciers in the Rocky Mountains may be anomalously thick relative to what is typical in the global database that forms the basis for empirical volume-area scaling relations. Incorporating multivariate statistical analysis using observed mass balance data from Peyto Glacier, Alberta and synoptic meteorological conditions in the Canadian Rockies (1966–2007), we model future glacier mass balance scenarios on the eastern slopes of the Rockies. We simulate future volume changes for the glaciers of the Rockies by using these mass balance scenarios in conjunction with a regional ice dynamics model. These projections indicate that glaciers on the eastern slopes will lose 80–90% of their volume by 2100. Glacier contributions to streamflow in Alberta decline from 1.1 km3 a−1 in the early 2000s to 0.1 km3 a−1 by the end of this century.

Ice Volume and Subglacial Topography for Western Canadian Glaciers from Mass Balance Fields, Thinning Rates, and a Bed Stress Model

AbstractA method is described to estimate the thickness of glacier ice using information derived from the measured ice extent, surface topography, surface mass balance, and rate of thinning or thickening of the ice column. Shear stress beneath an ice column is assumed to be simply related to ice thickness and surface slope, as for an inclined slab, but this calculation is cast as a linear optimization problem so that a smoothness regularization can be applied. Assignment of bed stress is based on the flow law for ice and a mass balance calculation but must be preceded by delineation of the ice flow drainage basin. Validation of the method is accomplished by comparing thickness estimates to the known thickness generated by a numerical ice dynamics model. Once validated, the method is used to estimate the subglacial topography for all glaciers in western Canada that lie south of 60°N. Adding the present ice volume of each glacier gives the estimated total volume as 2320 km3, equivalent to 5.8 mm of sea leve...