Tobias Kronenberg

Construction of Regional Input-Output Tables Using Nonsurvey Methods The Role of Cross-Hauling

Regional input-output tables are usually not constructed from survey data but are estimated using nonsurvey regionalization methods, which saves time and money. However, traditional regionalization methods ignore cross-hauling (the simultaneous exporting and importing of one and the same type of product). This flaw results in an underestimation of trade and an overestimation of regional output multipliers. This article presents a new approach based on an estimate of product heterogeneity, which addresses the problem of cross-hauling and is applicable to European System of Accounts tables with indirectly allocated imports. Its application is illustrated by the estimation of a regional input-output table for North Rhine—Westphalia, one of Germanys federal states. The results are compared to the traditional commodity balance approach, indicating that the new method suffers far less from the underestimation of trade and the overestimation of multipliers.

Should We Worry About The Failure Of The Hotelling Rule

The continuing dependence of the global economy on fossil fuels is worrying because it imposes limits on growth due to the non-renewable nature of these resources and also contributes to global climate change. Resource optimists believe that this is no reason to worry, because the economy will always find a way to overcome these constraints. Their arguments, however, require that resource prices reflect the scarcity of non-renewable resources, which implies that they must obey the Hotelling rule . Empirical analyses, however, show that the Hotelling rule does not hold in reality, which raises the question: does the failure of the Hotelling rule imply that social optimality is not achieved? This paper argues that the answer depends on the reason for the failure. If extraction and exploration costs, or technological progress in these activities, are the reasons for the failure, a market failure is not implied, and optimality may still be achieved. But if the Hotelling rule fails due to uncertain property rights or strategic interaction, the market will surely fail to provide an optimal solution. A market failure is likely to speed up resource consumption compared to the social optimum. Copyright

CONSTRUCTION OF MULTI-REGIONAL INPUT--OUTPUT TABLES USING THE CHARM METHOD

Subnational multi-regional input–output tables (IOT) are important tools for studying interregional socio-economic and/or environmental interrelations that help to address a wide range of current societal, ecological and economic challenges. However, the lack of subnational input–output data is a major obstacle which leads to a wide use of non-survey methods. Like other non-survey methods, the cross-hauling adjusted regionalization method (CHARM) was originally developed for the construction of single-regional IOT. In this paper, we extend CHARM to the case of bi- and multi-regional IOT. We find that the original CHARM formula has two limitations that are also of great importance for the single-regional case: First, cross-hauling in interregional trade is implicitly set to zero and, second, accounting balances may be violated owing to structural differences between the regional and national economies. We present a modified formula addressing these issues and examine its performance in terms of a case study.

Erstellung einer Input-Output-Tabelle für Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

ZusammenfassungInput-Output-Tabellen stellen eine wichtige Datenquelle für empirisch-ökonomische Analysen dar. Für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland werden Input-Output-Tabellen jährlich vom Statistischen Bundesamt erstellt. Auf regionaler Ebene sind aktuelle Tabellen nicht verfügbar, was ein Hindernis für regionalökonomische Arbeiten darstellt. In dem vorliegenden Papier wird die Erstellung einer Input-Output-Tabelle für das Bundesland Mecklenburg-Vorpommern beschrieben. Ein Schwerpunkt liegt auf der Berücksichtigung unterschiedlicher Produktivitäten und Konsumstrukturen. Zur Lösung der methodischen Schwierigkeiten werden spezielle Schätzmethoden vorgeschlagen, deren Ergebnisse u. a. von den dahinter stehenden regionalwissenschaftlichen Hypothesen bestimmt werden. Die beschriebene Methodik kann auch für andere Bundesländer angewendet werden.AbstractInput-output tables serve as an important data source for empirical work in economics. For Germany as a whole, input-output tables are produced by the Federal Statistical Office on an annual basis. At the regional level, empirical studies are hampered by the non-availability of recent input-output tables. The present paper describes the construction of an input-output table for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, paying special attention to the treatment of differences in regional productivity and consumption structures. It proposes special estimation methods for solving methodological difficulties, whose results depend amongst other things on the underlying hypotheses. The methodology outlined in this paper can be applied to other federal states as well.

General Purpose Technologies and Energy Policy

We employ a general purpose technology model with endogenous stochastic growth to simulate the effects of different energy policy schemes. An R&D sector produces endogenous growth by developing radical and incremental technologies. These innovations result in blueprints for capital intermediates, which require raw capital and either carbon or non-carbon-based fuels. A carbon tax therefore affects not only the final production sector but also the R&D sector by making the development of non-carbon-based technologies more attractive. Due to path dependencies and possible lock-in situations, policy can have a significant long-term impact on the energy structure of the economy. Allowing for different elasticities of substitution between consumption and environmental quality, we examine the effects of different carbon policies on growth, environmental quality, and welfare. We find that an anti-carbon policy may reduce welfare initially, but in the long run there is a strong potential for a ‘double dividend’ due to faster growth and reduced pollution.

Demographically Induced Changes in the Structure of Final Demand and Infrastructure Use

As consumption patterns differ between households depending on the age and number of household members, demographic change alters the structure of overall consumption expenditure. This chapter presents an extended input–output model, which was used to study the impact of demographically induced changes in the structure of consumption expenditure on infrastructure use. The analysis is performed for the cases of Germany, Hamburg, and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Selected sustainability indicators (energy use and emissions of CO2 and NOX) are quantified to study the implications for sustainable development. The results show that although the shift in consumption patterns tends to reduce energy use and emissions, it does not achieve the required decoupling of GDP growth and emissions.

Das CO-2-Gebäudesanierungsprogramm der KfW: Klimaschutz, Konjunktur- und Budgeteffekt

ZusammenfassungDie energetische Sanierung von Wohngebäuden verspricht ein hohes Potenzial für den Klimaschutz. Zu den wesentlichen Initiativen der Bundesregierung zählt das CO2-Gebäudesanierungs programm der KfW, mit dem die energetische Sanierung von Gebäuden finanziell gefördert werden soll. Für eine Bewertung des Programms sind über die Aspekte einzelwirtschaftlicher Rentabilität von Energieeinsparung und CO2-Reduktion hinaus gesamtwirtschaftliche Fragen von Bedeutung: In welchem Ausmaß werden externe Umwelteffekte internalisiert? Zeigt das Programm konjunkturelle Wirkungen? Wie hoch ist der kurzfristige Budgeteffekt in den staatlichen Haushalten?

Policy Implications: The Regional Perspective and Beyond

The following chapter summarises the key findings of the preceding chapters, embedding them into a discussion of general infrastructure policy. The resulting central question is how the burden of infrastructure adaptation associated with demographic change can be allocated. Inevitably, normative principles associated with regional infrastructures become the focal points, mainly culminating in the discussion on the equality of opportunity of welfare and the practice of regional redistribution policy. In this context, the implications for infrastructure planning and for sustainable development are discussed. Finally, the results, which are analysed with a focus on Germany, are reconsidered in terms of their relevance for other countries.

On the Energy Demand of Households

Demographic change affects the energy use in the household sector, which accounts for a major share of overall energy use. To understand this chain of effects better, we will devote this chapter to a more detailed analysis of households’ energy consumption. EVS data are used to identify differences in energy use between age groups, and the special roles of transport and space heating are discussed. We show that the effect of demographic change is not uniform across Germany: it depends on the technological and socio-economic conditions, which differ between regions.

Analysing the impact of demographic development on sustainability via infrastructure networks

Within the next decades unprecedented demographic changes (ageing and population decrease) will impact on most developed and with delay developing nations. The resulting changes in age structure and geographical distribution are expected to cause substantial adjustments. We present an analysis to test the simple demographic sustainability hypothesis that this development will improve sustainability of economic activities. For this purpose implicit adjustments of infrastructure networks to demographic changes are derived by linked demographic, economic and technical models. The results suggest that economic growth dominates contractive trends. Therefore, the hypothesis is rejected. Furthermore, the findings reveal a strong spatial heterogeneity of adjustment necessities due to migration patterns. Thus, the explicit consideration of the spatial dimension of demographic changes will foster the reliability of analyses of the consequences of demographic changes. Nevertheless spatial heterogeneity poses a serious challenge to the definition of sustainability.