Tobias Krueger

Position Paper: The role of expert opinion in environmental modelling

The inevitable though frequently informal use of expert opinion in modelling, the increasing number of models that incorporate formally expert opinion from a diverse range of experience and stakeholders, arguments for participatory modelling and analytic-deliberative-adaptive approaches to managing complex environmental problems, and an expanding but uneven literature prompt this critical review and analysis. Aims are to propose common definitions, identify and categorise existing concepts and practice, and provide a frame of reference and guidance for future environmental modelling. The extensive literature review and classification conducted demonstrate that a broad and inclusive definition of experts and expert opinion is both required and part of current practice. Thus an expert can be anyone with relevant and extensive or in-depth experience in relation to a topic of interest. The literature review also exposes informal model assumptions and modeller subjectivity, examines in detail the formal uses of expert opinion and expert systems, and critically analyses the main concepts of, and issues arising in, expert elicitation and the modelling of associated uncertainty. It is noted that model scrutiny and use of expert opinion in modelling will benefit from formal, systematic and transparent procedures that include as wide a range of stakeholders as possible. Enhanced awareness and utilisation of expert opinion is required for modelling that meets the informational needs of deliberative fora. These conclusions in no way diminish the importance of conventional science and scientific opinion but recognise the need for a paradigmatic shift from traditional ideals of unbiased and impartial experts towards unbiased processes of expert contestation and a plurality of expertise and eventually models. Priority must be given to the quality of the enquiry for those responsible for environmental management and policy formulation, and this review emphasises the role for science to maintain and enhance the rigour and formality of the information that informs decision making.

Ensemble evaluation of hydrological model hypotheses

It is demonstrated for the first time how model parameter, structural and data uncertainties can be accounted for explicitly and simultaneously within the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. As an example application, 72 variants of a single soil moisture accounting store are tested as simplified hypotheses of runoff generation at six experimental grassland field-scale lysimeters through model rejection and a novel diagnostic scheme. The fields, designed as replicates, exhibit different hydrological behaviors which yield different model performances. For fields with low initial discharge levels at the beginning of events, the conceptual stores considered reach their limit of applicability. Conversely, one of the fields yielding more discharge than the others, but having larger data gaps, allows for greater flexibility in the choice of model structures. As a model learning exercise, the study points to a “leaking” of the fields not evident from previous field experiments. It is discussed how understanding observational uncertainties and incorporating these into model diagnostics can help appreciate the scale of model structural error.

Uncertainties in data and models to describe event dynamics of agricultural sediment and phosphorus transfer.

Mathematical models help to quantify agricultural sediment and phosphorus transfers and to simulate mitigation of pollution. This paper develops empirical models of the dominant sediment and phosphorus event dynamics observed at high resolution in a drained and undrained, intensive grassland field-scale lysimeter (1 ha) experiment. The uncertainties in model development and simulation are addressed using Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation. A comparison of suspended solids (SS) and total phosphorus (TP) samples with a limited number of manual repeats indicates larger data variability at low flows. Quantitative uncertainty estimates for discharge (Q) are available from another study. Suspended solids-discharge (SS-Q) hysteresis is analyzed for four events and two drained and two undrained fields. Hysteresis loops differ spatially and temporally, and exhaustion is apparent between sequential hydrograph peaks. A coherent empirical model framework for hysteresis, where SS is a function of Q and rate of change of Q, is proposed. This is evaluated taking the Q uncertainty into account, which can contribute substantially to the overall uncertainty of model simulations. The model simulates small hysteresis loops well but fails to simulate exhaustion of SS sources and flushing at the onset of events. Analysis of the TP-SS relationship reveals that most of the variability occurs at low flows, and a power-law relationship can explain the dominant behavior at higher flows, which is consistent across events, fields, and pathways. The need for further field experiments to test hypotheses of sediment mobilization and to quantify data uncertainties is identified.

Panta Rhei 2013–2015: global perspectives on hydrology, society and change

ABSTRACT In 2013, the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) launched the hydrological decade 2013–2022 with the theme “Panta Rhei: Change in Hydrology and Society”. The decade recognizes the urgency of hydrological research to understand and predict the interactions of society and water, to support sustainable water resource use under changing climatic and environmental conditions. This paper reports on the first Panta Rhei biennium 2013–2015, providing a comprehensive resource that describes the scope and direction of Panta Rhei. We bring together the knowledge of all the Panta Rhei working groups, to summarize the most pressing research questions and how the hydrological community is progressing towards those goals. We draw out interconnections between different strands of research, and reflect on the need to take a global view on hydrology in the current era of human impacts and environmental change. Finally, we look back to the six driving science questions identified at the outset of Panta Rhei, to quantify progress towards those aims. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor not assigned

Apportioning sources of organic matter in streambed sediments: an integrated molecular and compound-specific stable isotope approach.

We present a novel application for quantitatively apportioning sources of organic matter in streambed sediments via a coupled molecular and compound-specific isotope analysis (CSIA) of long-chain leaf wax n-alkane biomarkers using a Bayesian mixing model. Leaf wax extracts of 13 plant species were collected from across two environments (aquatic and terrestrial) and four plant functional types (trees, herbaceous perennials, and C3 and C4 graminoids) from the agricultural River Wensum catchment, UK. Seven isotopic (δ13C27, δ13C29, δ13C31, δ13C27-31, δ2H27, δ2H29, and δ2H27-29) and two n-alkane ratio (average chain length (ACL), carbon preference index (CPI)) fingerprints were derived, which successfully differentiated 93% of individual plant specimens by plant functional type. The δ2H values were the strongest discriminators of plants originating from different functional groups, with trees (δ2H27-29=-208‰ to -164‰) and C3 graminoids (δ2H27-29=-259‰ to -221‰) providing the largest contrasts. The δ13C values provided strong discrimination between C3 (δ13C27-31=-37.5‰ to -33.8‰) and C4 (δ13C27-31=-23.5‰ to -23.1‰) plants, but neither δ13C nor δ2H values could uniquely differentiate aquatic and terrestrial species, emphasizing a stronger plant physiological/biochemical rather than environmental control over isotopic differences. ACL and CPI complemented isotopic discrimination, with significantly longer chain lengths recorded for trees and terrestrial plants compared with herbaceous perennials and aquatic species, respectively. Application of a comprehensive Bayesian mixing model for 18 streambed sediments collected between September 2013 and March 2014 revealed considerable temporal variability in the apportionment of organic matter sources. Median organic matter contributions ranged from 22% to 52% for trees, 29% to 50% for herbaceous perennials, 17% to 34% for C3 graminoids and 3% to 7% for C4 graminoids. The results presented here clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of an integrated molecular and stable isotope analysis for quantitatively apportioning, with uncertainty, plant-specific organic matter contributions to streambed sediments via a Bayesian mixing model approach.

A transdisciplinary account of water research

Water research is introduced from the combined perspectives of natural and social science and cases of citizen and stakeholder coproduction of knowledge. Using the overarching notion of transdisciplinarity, we examine how interdisciplinary and participatory water research has taken place and could be developed further. It becomes apparent that water knowledge is produced widely within society, across certified disciplinary experts and noncertified expert stakeholders and citizens. However, understanding and management interventions may remain partial, or even conflicting, as much research across and between traditional disciplines has failed to integrate disciplinary paradigms due to philosophical, methodological, and communication barriers. We argue for more agonistic relationships that challenge both certified and noncertified knowledge productively. These should include examination of how water research itself embeds and is embedded in social context and performs political work. While case studies of the cultural and political economy of water knowledge exist, we need more empirical evidence on how exactly culture, politics, and economics have shaped this knowledge and how and at what junctures this could have turned out differently. We may thus channel the coproductionist critique productively to bring perspectives, alternative knowledges, and implications into water politics where they were not previously considered; in an attempt to counter potential lock‐in to particular water policies and technologies that may be inequitable, unsustainable, or unacceptable. While engaging explicitly with politics, transdisciplinary water research should remain attentive to closing down moments in the research process, such as framings, path‐dependencies, vested interests, researchers’ positionalities, power, and scale. WIREs Water 2016, 3:369–389. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1132 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

Sensitivity of fluvial sediment source apportionment to mixing model assumptions: A Bayesian model comparison

Mixing models have become increasingly common tools for apportioning fluvial sediment load to various sediment sources across catchments using a wide variety of Bayesian and frequentist modeling approaches. In this study, we demonstrate how different model setups can impact upon resulting source apportionment estimates in a Bayesian framework via a one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) sensitivity analysis. We formulate 13 versions of a mixing model, each with different error assumptions and model structural choices, and apply them to sediment geochemistry data from the River Blackwater, Norfolk, UK, to apportion suspended particulate matter (SPM) contributions from three sources (arable topsoils, road verges, and subsurface material) under base flow conditions between August 2012 and August 2013. Whilst all 13 models estimate subsurface sources to be the largest contributor of SPM (median ∼76%), comparison of apportionment estimates reveal varying degrees of sensitivity to changing priors, inclusion of covariance terms, incorporation of time-variant distributions, and methods of proportion characterization. We also demonstrate differences in apportionment results between a full and an empirical Bayesian setup, and between a Bayesian and a frequentist optimization approach. This OFAT sensitivity analysis reveals that mixing model structural choices and error assumptions can significantly impact upon sediment source apportionment results, with estimated median contributions in this study varying by up to 21% between model versions. Users of mixing models are therefore strongly advised to carefully consider and justify their choice of model structure prior to conducting sediment source apportionment investigations. Key Points An OFAT sensitivity analysis of sediment fingerprinting mixing models is conducted Bayesian models display high sensitivity to error assumptions and structural choices Source apportionment results differ between Bayesian and frequentist approaches

A novel application of natural fluorescence to understand the sources and transport pathways of pollutants from livestock farming in small headwater catchments

This paper demonstrates the application of a low-cost and rapid natural fluorescence technique for tracing and quantifying the transport of pollutants from livestock farming through a small headwater catchment. Fluorescence intensities of Dissolved Organic Matter (DOM) present in different pollutant sources and drainage waters in the Den Brook catchment (Devon, UK) were monitored through storm events occurring between January 2007 and June 2008. Contrasting fluorescence signals from different sources confirmed the techniques usefulness as a tracer of pollutants from livestock farming. Changes in fluorescence intensities of drainage waters throughout storm events were used to assess the dynamics of key pollutant sources. The farmyard area of the catchment studied was shown to contribute polluted runoff at the onset of storm events in response to only small amounts of rain, when flows in the Den Brook first-order channel were low. The application of slurry to a field within the catchment did not elevate the fluorescence of drainage waters during storm events suggesting that when slurry is applied to undrained fields the fluorescent DOM may become quickly adsorbed onto soil particles and/or immobilised through bacterial breakdown. Fluorescence intensities of drainage waters were successfully combined with discharge data in a two component mixing model to estimate pollutant fluxes from key sources during the January 2007 storm event. The farmyard was shown to be the dominant source of tryptophan-like material, contributing 61-81% of the total event flux at the catchment outlet. High spatial and temporal resolution measurements of fluorescence, possibly using novel in-situ fluorimeters, may thus have great potential in quickly identifying and quantifying the presence, dynamics and sources of pollutants from livestock farming in catchments.

Adaptation of water resources systems to changing society and environment: a statement by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences

ABSTRACT We explore how to address the challenges of adaptation of water resources systems under changing conditions by supporting flexible, resilient and low-regret solutions, coupled with on-going monitoring and evaluation. This will require improved understanding of the linkages between biophysical and social aspects in order to better anticipate the possible future co-evolution of water systems and society. We also present a call to enhance the dialogue and foster the actions of governments, the international scientific community, research funding agencies and additional stakeholders in order to develop effective solutions to support water resources systems adaptation. Finally, we call the scientific community to a renewed and unified effort to deliver an innovative message to stakeholders. Water science is essential to resolve the water crisis, but the effectiveness of solutions depends, inter alia, on the capability of scientists to deliver a new, coherent and technical vision for the future development of water systems. EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned

Contrasting controls on the phosphorus concentration of suspended particulate matter under baseflow and storm event conditions in agricultural headwater streams.

Whilst the processes involved in the cycling of dissolved phosphorus (P) in rivers have been extensively studied, less is known about the mechanisms controlling particulate P concentrations during small and large flows. This deficiency is addressed through an analysis of large numbers of suspended particulate matter (SPM) samples collected under baseflow (n=222) and storm event (n=721) conditions over a 23-month period across three agricultural headwater catchments of the River Wensum, UK. Relationships between clay mineral and metal oxyhydroxide associated elements were assessed and multiple linear regression models for the prediction of SPM P concentration under baseflow and storm event conditions were formulated. These models, which explained 71-96% of the variation in SPM P concentration, revealed a pronounced shift in P association from iron (Fe) dominated during baseflow conditions to particulate organic carbon (POC) dominated during storm events. It is hypothesised this pronounced transition in P control mechanism, which is consistent across the three study catchments, is driven by changes in SPM source area under differing hydrological conditions. In particular, changes in SPM Fe-P ratios between small and large flows suggest there are three distinct sources of SPM Fe; surface soils, subsurface sediments and streambed iron sulphide. Further examination of weekly baseflow data also revealed seasonality in the Fe-P and aluminium oxalate-dithionate (Alox-Aldi) ratios of SPM, indicating temporal variability in sediment P sorption capacity. The results presented here significantly enhance our understanding of SPM P associations with soil derived organic and inorganic fractions under different flow regimes and has implications for the mitigation of P originating from different sources in agricultural catchments.