Tobias Maier

LABOUR DEMAND IN GERMANY BY INDUSTRIAL SECTOR, OCCUPATIONAL FIELD AND QUALIFICATION UNTIL 2025 – MODEL CALCULATIONS USING THE IAB/INFORGE MODEL

By means of a trend extrapolation of microcensus structures (undertaken by the German Federal Statistical Office) for the time period 1996–2007, the projections for labour demand by industrial sector which the IAB already has at its disposal can be transferred to demand by occupational field and subsequently by qualification level until 2025. The findings which have been claimed for some time now are upheld: production-related occupations will lose in significance, while further increases in employment particularly in occupations in the service sector are to be expected. Accordingly, the demand for personnel with a degree from a university or a university of applied sciences will go on rising, while the labour market opportunities for unskilled workers will continue to fall. However, vocational training or its academic counterparts still remain the dominant form of training in Germany. A continuing employment trend is to be expected here.

Export Induced Qualification Needs

Abstract Foreign markets determine success and failure of those industries that have become reliant on foreign demand, impair the demand for employment and invoke changes in occupational fields and qualification requirements. This paper aims to disclose the direct and indirect influence of major trading partners on Germanys production, employment, and qualification needs. It projects the effects by using the dynamic macro-econometric input-output model INFORGE. Industrialized economies are the most important determinants for employment in the manufacturing industries. Business- related services are highly indirectly affected. The growth impact of industrialized nations is declining while BRICS nations are gaining momentum. A shift towards higher qualification needs can be observed.