Todd Donovan

Minority Representation, Empowerment, and Participation

According to the minority empowerment thesis, minority representation strengthens representational links, fosters more positive attitudes toward government, and encourages political participation. We examine this theory from a cross-national perspective, making use of surveys that sampled minorities in the United States and New Zealand. Both countries incorporate structures into their electoral systems that make it possible for minority groups to elect representatives of their choice. We find that in both countries descriptive representation matters: it increases knowledge about and contact with representatives in the U.S. and leads to more positive evaluations of governmental responsiveness and increased electoral participation in New Zealand. These findings have broad implications for debates about minority representation.

Democracy, Institutions and Attitudes about Citizen Influence on Government

Theorists such as Carole Pateman and Benjamin Barber suggest that democratic participation will engage citizens and lead them to have more positive regard for political processes and democratic practices. The American states provide a setting where provisions for direct voter participation in legislation vary substantially. If participatory institutions have an ‘educative role’ that shapes perceptions of government, then citizens exposed to direct democracy may be more likely to claim they understand politics and be more likely to perceive that they are capable of participation. They may also be more likely to perceive that government is responsive to them. We merge data on state-level political institutions with data from the 1992 American National Election Study to test these hypotheses with OLS models. Our primary hypotheses find support. We present evidence that the effects of exposure to direct democracy on internal and external political efficacy rival the effects of formal education.

Measuring the Effect of Direct Democracy on State Policy: Not All Initiatives Are Created Equal

Numerous studies attempt to assess direct democracys impact on state policy using measures of direct democracy based on dummy variables or the frequency with which initiatives appear on a states ballots. We offer an alternative to these measures that accounts for how rules governing the initiative process vary among the states. We replicate several studies using different measures of direct democracy and demonstrate that the results of hypothesis tests can be contingent on how these institutions are measured. We contend that commonly used dummy variable measures of state direct democracy have validity problems and that hypothesis tests using such measures produce imprecise estimates of the initiatives effect on policy.

Strategic voting, party activity, and candidate effects: testing explanations for split voting in New Zealand's new mixed system

Recent research on voting in Germany’s mixed electoral system suggests that split voting has more to do with voter confusion than sophistication, although this remains a matter of debate. We examine this question in the context of New Zealand’s new mixed system, which is modeled after Germany’s. We focus on alternative explanations for split voting. One is derived from theories of strategic voting, which hypothesizes that voters will split their votes when their preferred party’s candidate is not viable in single member district (SMD) contests. We also consider the influence of party attachments and candidate preference. We examine these explanations using both aggregate and individual level data. The assumption that split voting in mixed systems is largely due to confusion is not supported in New Zealand as split voters cast votes in predictable patterns. In particular, we find that strategic defections are more likely to occur when the preferred candidate is not viable. Those with higher levels of political knowledge are more likely to defect from nonviable candidates. Partisan attachments and candidate effects also help to explain split voting.  2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Popular support for direct democracy

The expanding use of direct democracy in many established democracies reflects a desire to provide citizens with more opportunities to be involved in the political process. These changes are assumed to be embraced by those who demand greater citizen involvement, though the underlining motivation remains unclear. One theory assumes that support is likely to come from citizens who have a deep interest in politics and are politically active. Another theory offers a contrasting view, claiming that those who find themselves on the periphery of politics, and are largely disenchanted, find such proposals attractive. We examine these theories drawing on public opinion surveys from six established democracies. We find that younger citizens and those who are more interested in the political process are more supportive of direct democracy, while political disaffection has a less consistent impact.

Ballot Propositions and Information Costs: Direct Democracy and the Fatigued Voter

Here b denotes the benefit from having your .candidate win, p the probability of your vote deciding the outcome, and c the costs of voting (Downs 1957). By and large this formulation has considered b and c at the systemic level; ease of registration, competitiveness of the election, literacy requirements and many similar factors have all been used to assess levels of turnout (Rosenstone and Wolfinger 1978; Powell 1980). In terms of this literature, then, c refers to a set of costs imposed on all voters within a given political jurisdiction. Once a voter has arrived at the voting booth the costs of actually marking a ballot would seem to be trivial relative to the costs of actually turning out to vote. This last point, however, is not true for all types of ballot. Many ballots require much more of voters than simply turning out and marking a single preference for one office. Under preferential systems or where a large number of elective offices and/or propositions are on the ballot, the decisions facing voters are quite complex. Between 1974 and 1988, for example, in addition to a wide range of elective offices, Californians faced an average of 13 propositions at each election. As can be seen from Figure 1, Californias voters express some dissatisfaction with this process. Nearly one-third of voters gave responses which suggested that propositions made too many demands upon them. Responses which noted that there were too many propositions or that they were too confusing (i.e., that too many demands were being made) far outweighed responses which expressed a lack of faith in the efficacy of the proposition process (e.g. that special interests dominate the process). The question here is whether we can represent such

Enraged or Engaged? Preferences for Direct Citizen Participation in Affluent Democracies

Widespread approval of direct democracy has been attributed to politically engaged citizens who seek more opportunities to participate in politics. Others suggest that people prefer a limited role in politics, but cynicism with representation leads them to embrace direct democracy. The authors analyze opinion in sixteen affluent democracies to test these explanations. The authors find expectations of “more participation” were motivated by distrust of government and the belief that a citizen had a duty to keep a watch on government. Distrust, however, had an inverse relationship with approval of referendums in several nations. Support for referendums was greater among people who expect more opportunities to participate in public decisions and from people who were interested in politics, trusted government, and were satisfied with how democracy was working. Enthusiasm for direct democracy may reflect what people find lacking in representative democracy as much as it reflects interest in a more participatory version of democracy.

Direct Democracy and Minority Rights: An Extension

We extend upon Gamble (1997) and examine how minorities fare under direct democracy. We propose that the threat of majority tyranny is not simply a function of direct democracy, but of the scale over which democracy is practiced. Models used to predict direct legislation outcomes demonstrate that larger places are more likely to produce pro-gay policy outcomes. We discuss the implications of this for critiques of direct democracy.

Proportional representation and attitudes about politics: results from New Zealand

PR systems often are credited with producing more equitable outcomes between political parties and encouraging wider social group representation than majoritarian systems. Theory suggests that this should instill greater trust, efficacy, and faith in the political system. We assume that citizens disadvantaged by majoritarian rules (political minorities) will have a relatively greater shift toward positive attitudes about democracy following a transition from a majoritarian system to proportional representation. We employ panel data from the 1993‐1996 New Zealand Election Study (NZES) to test hypotheses about the effects of electoral system change on attitudes about governmental responsiveness, trust in government, and political efficacy. We find that there is a general shift in mass opinion toward more positive attitudes on some measures of efficacy and responsiveness. Political minorities display a greater shift toward feelings of efficacy than other voters.

Priming Presidential Votes by Direct Democracy

We demonstrate that direct democracy can affect the issues voters consider when evaluating presidential candidates. Priming theory assumes that some voters have latent attitudes or predispositions that can be primed to affect evaluations of political candidates. We demonstrate that: (1) state ballot measures on same sex marriage increased the salience of marriage as an issue that voters used when evaluating presidential candidates in 2004, particularly those voters less interested in the campaign and those likely to be less attentive to the issue prior to the election; and (2) that the primed issue (gay marriage) was a more important factor affecting candidate choice in states where marriage was on the ballot.