Todd M. Gibson

Survivors of Childhood Cancer in the United States: Prevalence and Burden of Morbidity

Background: No studies have estimated the population-level burden of morbidity in individuals diagnosed with cancer as children (ages 0–19 years). We updated prevalence estimates of childhood cancer survivors as of 2011 and burden of morbidity in this population reflected by chronic conditions, neurocognitive dysfunction, compromised health-related quality of life, and health status (general health, mental health, functional impairment, functional limitations, pain, and fear/anxiety). Methods: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program data from 1975 to 2011 were used to update the prevalence of survivors of childhood cancers in the United States. Childhood Cancer Survivor Study data were used to obtain estimates of morbidity burden indicators, which were then extrapolated to SEER data to obtain population-level estimates. Results: There were an estimated 388,501 survivors of childhood cancer in the United States as of January 1, 2011, of whom 83.5% are ≥5 years after diagnosis. The prevalence of any chronic condition among ≥5-year survivors ranged from 66% (ages 5–19) to 88% (ages 40–49). Estimates for specific morbidities ranged from 12% (pain) to 35% (neurocognitive dysfunction). Generally, morbidities increased by age. However, mental health and anxiety remained fairly stable, and neurocognitive dysfunction exhibited initial decline and then remained stable by time since diagnosis. Conclusions: The estimated prevalence of survivors of childhood cancer is increasing, as is the estimated prevalence of morbidity in those ≥5 years after diagnosis. Impact: Efforts to understand how to effectively decrease morbidity burden and incorporate effective care coordination and rehabilitation models to optimize longevity and well-being in this population should be a priority. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 24(4); 653–63. ©2015 AACR.

Body Mass Index and Risk of Second Obesity-Associated Cancers After Colorectal Cancer: A Pooled Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

PURPOSE To determine whether prediagnostic body mass index (BMI) is associated with risk of second obesity-associated cancers in colorectal cancer (CRC) survivors, and whether CRC survivors have increased susceptibility to obesity-associated cancer compared with cancer-free individuals. PATIENTS AND METHODS Incident first primary CRC cases (N = 11,598) were identified from five prospective cohort studies. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to examine associations between baseline (prediagnostic) BMI and risk of second obesity-associated cancers (postmenopausal breast, kidney, pancreas, esophageal adenocarcinoma, endometrium) in CRC survivors, and compared associations to those for first obesity-associated cancers in the full cohort. RESULTS Compared with survivors with normal prediagnostic BMI (18.5-24.9 kg/m(2)), those who were overweight (25-29.9 kg/m(2)) or obese (30+ kg/m(2)) had greater risk of a second obesity-associated cancer (n = 224; overweight hazard ratio [HR], 1.39; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.92; obese HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.02 to 2.12; per 5-unit change in BMI HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.98 to 1.29). The magnitude of risk for developing a first primary obesity-associated cancer was similar (overweight HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.21; obese HR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.56 to 1.66; per 5-unit change in BMI HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.21 to 1.24). Before diagnosis CRC patients were somewhat more likely than the overall cohort to be overweight (44% v 41%) or obese (25% v 21%). CONCLUSION CRC survivors who were overweight or obese before diagnosis had increased risk of second obesity-associated cancers compared with survivors with normal weight. The risks were similar in magnitude to those observed for first cancers in this population, suggesting increased prevalence of overweight or obesity, rather than increased susceptibility, may contribute to elevated second cancer risks in colorectal cancer survivors compared with the general population. These results support emphasis of existing weight guidelines for this high-risk group.

Pre- and postfortification intake of folate and risk of colorectal cancer in a large prospective cohort study in the United States

BACKGROUND A higher folate intake is associated with a decreased colorectal cancer risk in observational studies, but recent evidence suggests that excessive folate supplementation may increase colorectal cancer risk in some individuals. Therefore, mandatory folic acid fortification of grain products in the United States may have unintended negative consequences. OBJECTIVE We examined the association between folate intake and colorectal cancer risk, including 8.5 y of postfortification follow-up. DESIGN We examined the association between folate intake and colorectal cancer in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study-a US cohort study of 525,488 individuals aged 50-71 y initiated in 1995-1996. Dietary, supplemental, and total folate intakes were calculated for the pre- and postfortification periods (before and after 1 July 1997) based on a baseline food-frequency questionnaire. HRs and 95% CIs were calculated by using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models. RESULTS During follow-up through 31 December 2006 (mean follow-up: 9.1 y), 7212 incident colorectal cancer cases were identified. In the postfortification analysis (6484 cases), a higher total folate intake was associated with a decreased colorectal cancer risk (HR for ≥900 compared with <200 μg/d: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.58, 0.84). The highest intakes specifically from supplements (HR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.72, 0.92) or from diet (HR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.67, 0.97) were also protective. The pattern of associations was similar for the prefortification period, and no significant differences between time periods were observed. CONCLUSIONS In this large prospective cohort study that included 8.5 y of postfortification follow-up, folate intake was associated with a decreased colorectal cancer risk. Given that the adenoma-carcinoma sequence may take ≥10 y, additional follow-up time is needed to fully examine the effect of folic acid fortification.

Risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma subtypes in HIV-infected people during the HAART era: a population-based study.

Objective:HIV-infected people have greatly elevated risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), particularly the AIDS-defining NHL subtypes: diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, Burkitt lymphoma and primary lymphomas arising in the central nervous system. The goals of this analysis were to comprehensively describe risks of NHL subtypes, especially those not well studied, among HIV/AIDS patients; examine risks specifically in the HAART era; and distinguish risks in HIV-infected individuals prior to diagnosis with AIDS. Design:Population-based registry linkage study. Methods:We used data from the US HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study from 1996 to 2010 (N = 273 705) to calculate standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) comparing subtype-specific NHL risks in HIV-infected people to those in the general population, and used Poisson regression to test for differences in SIRs between the HIV-only and AIDS periods. Results:NHL risk was elevated 11-fold compared to the general population, but varied substantially by subtype. AIDS-defining NHL subtypes comprised the majority, and risks were high (SIRs ≥17), but risks were also increased for some T-cell lymphomas (SIRs = 3.6–14.2), marginal zone lymphoma (SIR = 2.4), lymphoplasmacytic lymphoma/Waldenström macroglobulinemia (SIR = 3.6), and acute lymphoblastic leukemia/lymphoma (SIR = 2.4). Conclusion:HIV-infected people in the HAART era continue to have elevated risk of AIDS-defining NHL subtypes, highlighting the contribution of moderate and severe immunosuppression to their cause. Whereas non-AIDS-defining subtypes are much less common, immunosuppression or other dysregulated immune states likely play a role in the cause of some T-cell lymphomas, marginal zone lymphoma, lymphoplasmacytic lymphoma/Waldenström macroglobulinemia, and acute lymphoblastic leukemia/lymphoma.

Epidemiological and Clinical Studies of Nutrition

In this review, we briefly summarize some of the key developments in nutritional epidemiology and cancer over the past two decades with a focus on the strengths and limitations of study designs and dietary assessment methods. We present the evidence on dietary fat, meat, fiber, antioxidant nutrients, and calcium in relation to carcinogenesis from large cohort studies and randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and refer to the conclusions of the 2007 World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research summary report. One prominent theme that emerged is the lack of concordance of results from RCTs and observational studies. There are multiple potential reasons for these discrepancies, including differences in study population, dose and timing of the exposure, adherence to an intervention, length of follow-up, and the primary endpoint. Therefore, null findings of RCTs do not necessarily indicate a lack of effect for the tested dietary factors on cancer risk, as some of these nutrients may have chemopreventive effects if given at the right time and in the right dose. It is likely that potential benefits from diet are due to a combination of food constituents rather than single components acting in isolation. Future efforts need to recognize the integrative nature of dietary exposures and attempt to study nutrients in the larger context of the foods and diets in which they are consumed.

Cigarette Smoking Prior to First Cancer and Risk of Second Smoking-Associated Cancers Among Survivors of Bladder, Kidney, Head and Neck, and Stage I Lung Cancers

PURPOSE Data on smoking and second cancer risk among cancer survivors are limited. We assessed associations between smoking before first cancer diagnosis and risk of second primary smoking-associated cancers among survivors of lung (stage I), bladder, kidney, and head/neck cancers. METHODS Data were pooled from 2,552 patients with stage I lung cancer, 6,386 with bladder cancer, 3,179 with kidney cancer, and 2,967 with head/neck cancer from five cohort studies. We assessed the association between prediagnostic smoking and second smoking-associated cancer risk with proportional hazards regression, and compared these estimates to those for first smoking-associated cancers in all cohort participants. RESULTS Compared with never smoking, current smoking of ≥ 20 cigarettes per day was associated with increased second smoking-associated cancer risk among survivors of stage I lung (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.26; 95% CI, 0.92 to 11.6), bladder (HR = 3.67; 95% CI, 2.25 to 5.99), head/neck (HR = 4.45; 95% CI, 2.56 to 7.73), and kidney cancers (HR = 5.33; 95% CI, 2.55 to 11.1). These estimates were similar to those for first smoking-associated cancer among all cohort participants (HR = 5.41; 95% CI, 5.23 to 5.61). The 5-year cumulative incidence of second smoking-associated cancers ranged from 3% to 8% in this group of cancer survivors. CONCLUSION Understanding risk factors for second cancers among cancer survivors is crucial. Our data indicate that cigarette smoking before first cancer diagnosis increases second cancer risk among cancer survivors, and elevated cancer risk in these survivors is likely due to increased smoking prevalence. The high 5-year cumulative risks of smoking-associated cancers among current smoking survivors of stage I lung, bladder, kidney, and head/neck cancers highlight the importance of smoking cessation in patients with cancer.

Body Mass Index and Physical Activity at Different Ages and Risk of Multiple Myeloma in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study

Several studies have reported an increased risk of multiple myeloma associated with excess body weight. We investigated the risk of multiple myeloma in relation to separate measures of adiposity and energy balance at different ages in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study, a large prospective cohort study in the United States. Participants completed a baseline questionnaire (1995-1996; n = 485,049), and a subset of participants completed a second questionnaire (1996-1997; n = 305,618) in which we solicited more detailed exposure information. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated for the risk of multiple myeloma (overall, n = 813; subset, n = 489) in relation to several measures of obesity and leisure time physical activity. Multiple myeloma risk was associated with increasing body mass index (BMI) at cohort entry (per 5-kg/m(2) increase, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.10, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00, 1.22); similar associations were observed for BMI at age 50 years (HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.28), age 35 years (HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.36), and age 18 years (HR = 1.13, 95% CI: 0.98, 1.32) without adjustment for baseline BMI. Risk of multiple myeloma was not associated with physical activity level at any age. These findings support the hypothesis that excess body weight, both in early adulthood and later in life, is a risk factor for multiple myeloma and suggest that maintaining a healthy body weight throughout life may reduce multiple myeloma risk.

Temporal Trends in Treatment and Subsequent Neoplasm Risk Among 5-Year Survivors of Childhood Cancer, 1970-2015

Importance Cancer treatments are associated with subsequent neoplasms in survivors of childhood cancer. It is unknown whether temporal changes in therapy are associated with changes in subsequent neoplasm risk. Objective To quantify the association between temporal changes in treatment dosing and subsequent neoplasm risk. Design, Setting, and Participants Retrospective, multicenter cohort study of 5-year cancer survivors diagnosed before age 21 years from pediatric tertiary hospitals in the United States and Canada between 1970-1999, with follow-up through December 2015. Exposures Radiation and chemotherapy dose changes over time. Main Outcomes and Measures Subsequent neoplasm 15-year cumulative incidence, cumulative burden, and standardized incidence ratios for subsequent malignancies, compared by treatment decade. Multivariable models assessed relative rates (RRs) of subsequent neoplasms by 5-year increments, adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics. Mediation analyses assessed whether changes in rates of subsequent neoplasms over time were mediated by treatment variable modifications. Results Among 23 603 survivors of childhood cancer (mean age at diagnosis, 7.7 years; 46% female) the most common initial diagnoses were acute lymphoblastic leukemia, Hodgkin lymphoma, and astrocytoma. During a mean follow-up of 20.5 years (374 638 person-years at risk), 1639 survivors experienced 3115 subsequent neoplasms, including 1026 malignancies, 233 benign meningiomas, and 1856 nonmelanoma skin cancers. The most common subsequent malignancies were breast and thyroid cancers. Proportions of individuals receiving radiation decreased (77% for 1970s vs 33% for 1990s), as did median dose (30 Gy [interquartile range, 24-44] for 1970s vs 26 Gy [interquartile range, 18-45] for 1990s). Fifteen-year cumulative incidence of subsequent malignancies decreased by decade of diagnosis (2.1% [95% CI, 1.7%-2.4%] for 1970s, 1.7% [95% CI, 1.5%-2.0%] for 1980s, 1.3% [95% CI, 1.1%-1.5%] for 1990s). Reference absolute rates per 1000 person-years were 1.12 (95% CI, 0.84-1.57) for subsequent malignancies, 0.16 (95% CI, 0.06-0.41) for meningiomas, and 1.71 (95% CI, 0.88-3.33) for nonmelanoma skin cancers for survivors with reference characteristics (no chemotherapy, splenectomy, or radiation therapy; male; attained age 28 years). Standardized incidence ratios declined for subsequent malignancies over treatment decades, with advancing attained age. Relative rates declined with each 5-year increment for subsequent malignancies (RR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.82-0.93]; P < .001), meningiomas (RR, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.75-0.97]; P = .03), and nonmelanoma skin cancers (RR, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.67-0.84]; P < .001). Radiation dose changes were associated with reduced risk for subsequent malignancies, meningiomas, and nonmelanoma skin cancers. Conclusions and Relevance Among survivors of childhood cancer, the risk of subsequent malignancies at 15 years after initial cancer diagnosis remained increased for those diagnosed in the 1990s, although the risk was lower compared with those diagnosed in the 1970s. This lower risk was associated with reduction in therapeutic radiation dose.

Risk of myeloid neoplasms after solid organ transplantation

Solid organ transplant recipients have elevated cancer risks, owing in part to pharmacologic immunosuppression. However, little is known about risks for hematologic malignancies of myeloid origin. We linked the US Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients with 15 population-based cancer registries to ascertain cancer occurrence among 207 859 solid organ transplants (1987–2009). Solid organ transplant recipients had a significantly elevated risk for myeloid neoplasms, with standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) of 4.6 (95% confidence interval 3.8–5.6; N=101) for myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), 2.7 (2.2–3.2; N=125) for acute myeloid leukemia (AML), 2.3 (1.6–3.2; N=36) for chronic myeloid leukemia and 7.2 (5.4–9.3; N=57) for polycythemia vera. SIRs were highest among younger individuals and varied by time since transplantation and organ type (Poisson regression P<0.05 for all comparisons). Azathioprine for initial maintenance immunosuppression increased risk for MDS (P=0.0002) and AML (2–5 years after transplantation, P=0.0163). Overall survival following AML/MDS among transplant recipients was inferior to that of similar patients reported to US cancer registries (log-rank P<0.0001). Our novel finding of increased risks for specific myeloid neoplasms after solid organ transplantation supports a role for immune dysfunction in myeloid neoplasm etiology. The increased risks and inferior survival should heighten clinician awareness of myeloid neoplasms during follow-up of transplant recipients.

Plasma Cell Neoplasms in US Solid Organ Transplant Recipients

Transplant recipients have elevated risk for plasma cell neoplasms (PCNs, comprising multiple myeloma and plasmacytoma), but little is known about risk factors in the transplant setting. Through linkage of the US solid organ transplant registry with 15 state/regional cancer registries, we identified 140 PCNs in 202 600 recipients (1987–2009). PCN risk was 1.8‐fold increased relative to the general population (standardized incidence ratio [SIR] 1.80, 95%CI 1.51–2.12). Among cases, 102 were multiple myeloma (SIR 1.41) and 38 were plasmacytoma (SIR 7.06). PCN incidence increased with age, but due to the rarity of PCNs in younger people in the general population, SIRs were highest in younger transplant recipients (p = 0.03). PCN risk was especially high in recipients who were Epstein‐Barr virus (EBV) seronegative at transplantation (SIR 3.93). EBV status was known for 18 tumors, of which 7 (39%) were EBV positive. Following liver transplantation, PCN risk was higher in recipients with cholestatic liver disease (SIR 2.78); five of these cases had primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC). A role for primary EBV infection after transplantation is supported by the increased PCN risk in young EBV seronegative recipients and the presence of EBV in tumors. PBC may be another risk factor, perhaps by causing chronic immune activation.