Todd Rogers

National and State-Specific Sales and Prices for Electronic Cigarettes-U.S., 2012-2013.

INTRODUCTIONnThe growing market for electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) has been widely reported in the media, but very little objective data exist in the scientific literature, and no data have been published on state-specific trends in prices or sales. Our objective is to assess state-specific annual sales and average prices for e-cigarettes in the U.S.nnnMETHODSnCommercial retail scanner data were used to assess total dollar sales and average price per unit for disposable e-cigarettes, starter kits, and cartridge refills for selected states and the total U.S. during 2012-2013. Data were analyzed in 2014. Data were available for convenience stores (29 states) and food, drug, and mass merchandisers (44 states).nnnRESULTSnIn convenience stores, dollar sales increased markedly during 2012-2013: 320.8% for disposable e-cigarettes, 72.4% for starter kits, and 82% for cartridges. In food, drug, and mass merchandisers, dollar sales increased 49.5% for disposable e-cigarettes, 89.4% for starter kits, and 126.2% for cartridges. Average prices across all product categories increased in convenience stores and decreased in food, drug, and mass merchandisers. Sales and prices varied substantially across states included in the analyses.nnnCONCLUSIONSnSales of all e-cigarette device types grew considerably in convenience stores and food, drug, and mass merchandisers during 2012-2013. The market for e-cigarettes is growing rapidly, resulting in dynamic sales and price changes that vary across the U.S. Continued state-specific surveillance of the e-cigarette market is warranted.

Effect of price changes in little cigars and cigarettes on little cigar sales: USA, Q4 2011–Q4 2013

Introduction Little cigars are comparable to cigarettes in terms of shape, size, filters and packaging. Disproportionate tobacco excise taxes, which directly affect purchase price, may lead consumers to substitute cigarettes with less expensive little cigars. This study estimated the effects of little cigar and cigarette prices on little cigar sales. Methods Sales data from a customised retail scanner database were used to model a log–log equation to infer own-price and cross-price elasticity of demand for little cigars relative to little cigar and cigarette prices, respectively, from quarter 4 of 2011 to quarter 4 of 2013. Data were available for convenience stores (C-stores) (n=29 states); food, drug and mass merchandisers (FDMs) (n=44 states); and C-stores and FDMs combined (n=27 states). The dependent variable was per capita little cigar pack sales, and key independent variables were the price index for little cigars and cigarettes. Results A 10% increase in little cigar price was associated with a 25% (p<0.01) decrease in little cigar sales in C-stores alone, and a 31.7% (p<0.01) decrease in C-stores and FDMs combined. A 10% increase in cigarette price was associated with a 21.5% (p<0.05) increase in little cigar sales in C-stores, and a 27.3% (p<0.01) increase in C-stores and FDMs combined. Conclusions Our results suggest that US cigarette smokers are avoiding the high cost of cigarettes by switching to lower priced little cigars. Increasing and equalising prices among comparable products, like cigarettes and little cigars, may motivate cost-conscious smokers to quit.

National and State Trends in Sales of Cigarettes and E-Cigarettes, U.S., 2011-2015.

INTRODUCTIONnIn recent years, self-reported cigarette smoking has declined among youth and adults, while electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use has increased. However, sales trends for these products are less certain. This study assessed national and state patterns of U.S. cigarette and e-cigarette unit sales.nnnMETHODSnTrends in cigarette and e-cigarette unit sales were analyzed using retail scanner data from September 25, 2011 through January 9, 2016 for: (1) convenience stores; and (2) all other outlets combined, including supermarkets, mass merchandisers, drug, dollar, and club stores, and military commissaries (online, tobacco-only, and vape shops were not available). Data by store type were available for the total contiguous U.S. and 29 states; combined data were available for the remaining states, except Alaska, Hawaii, and DC.nnnRESULTSnDuring 2011-2015, cigarette sales exhibited a small, significant decrease; however, positive year-over-year growth occurred in convenience stores throughout most of 2015. E-cigarette unit sales significantly increased during 2011-2015, but year-over-year growth slowed and was occasionally negative. Cigarette unit sales exceeded e-cigarettes by 64:1 during the last 4-week period. During 2014-2015, cigarette sales increases occurred in 15 of 48 assessed states; e-cigarette sales increased in 18 states.nnnCONCLUSIONSnDespite overall declines during 2011-2015, cigarette sales in 2015 grew for the first time in a decade. E-cigarette sales growth was positive, but slowed over the study period in assessed stores. Cigarette sales continued to exceed e-cigarette sales, reinforcing the importance of efforts to reduce the appeal and accessibility of cigarettes and other combusted tobacco products.

Standardized Tobacco Assessment for Retail Settings (STARS): dissemination and implementation research

Objective The Standardized Tobacco Assessment for Retail Settings (STARS) was designed to characterise the availability, placement, promotion and price of tobacco products, with items chosen for relevance to regulating the retail tobacco environment. This study describes the process to develop the STARS instrument and protocol employed by a collaboration of US government agencies, US state tobacco control programmes (TCPs), advocacy organisations, public health attorneys and researchers from the National Cancer Institutes State and Community Tobacco Control (SCTC) Research Initiative. Methods To evaluate dissemination and early implementation experiences, we conducted telephone surveys with state TCP leaders (n=50, response rate=100%), and with individuals recruited via a STARS download registry on the SCTC website. Website registrants were surveyed within 6u2005months of the STARS release (n=105, response rate=66%) and again after ∼5u2005months (retention rate=62%). Results Among the state TCPs, 42 reported conducting any retail marketing surveillance, with actual or planned STARS use in 34 of these states and in 12 of the 17 states where marketing surveillance was not previously reported. Within 6u2005months of the STARS release, 21% of surveyed registrants reported using STARS and 35% were likely/very likely to use it in the next 6u2005months. To investigate implementation fidelity, we compared data collected by self-trained volunteers and by trained professionals, the latter method being more typically in retail marketing surveillance studies. Results suggest high or moderate reliability for most STARS measures. Conclusion The study concludes with examples of states that used STARS to inform policy change.

Trends in Sales of Flavored and Menthol Tobacco Products in the United States During 2011–2015

IntroductionnFlavors can mask the harshness of tobacco and make it appealing to young people. This study assessed flavored and menthol tobacco product sales at the national and state levels.nnnMethodsnUniversal Product Code tobacco sales data collected by Nielsen were combined for convenience stores and all-outlets-combined during October 22, 2011-January 9, 2016. Products were characterized as flavored, menthol, or non-flavored/non-menthol. Total unit sales, and the proportion of flavored and menthol unit sales, were assessed nationally and by state for seven tobacco products. Joinpoint regression was used to assess trends in average monthly percentage change.nnnResultsnNationally, the proportion of flavored and menthol sales in 2015 was as follows: cigarettes (32.5% menthol), large cigars (26.1% flavored), cigarillos (47.5% flavored, 0.2% menthol), little cigars (21.8% flavored, 19.4% menthol), chewing tobacco (1.4% flavored, 0.7% menthol), moist snuff (3.0% flavored, 57.0% menthol), and snus (88.5% menthol). From 2011 to 2015, sales increased for flavored cigarillos and chewing tobacco, as well as for menthol cigarettes, little cigars, moist snuff, and snus. Sales decreased for flavored large cigars, moist snuff, and snus, and for menthol chewing tobacco. State-level variations were observed by product; for example, flavored little cigar sales ranged from 4.4% (Maine) to 69.3% (Utah) and flavored cigarillo sales ranged from 26.6% (Maine) to 63.0% (Maryland).nnnConclusionsnMenthol and flavored sales have increased since 2011, particularly for the products with the highest number of units sold, and significant state variation exists. Efforts to restrict flavored tobacco product sales could reduce overall U.S. tobacco consumption.nnnImplicationsnFlavors in tobacco products can mask the harshness of tobacco and make these products more appealing to young people. This is the first study to assess national and state-level trends in flavored and menthol tobacco product sales. These findings underscore the importance of population-based interventions to address flavored tobacco product use at the national, state, and local levels. Additionally, further monitoring of flavored and menthol tobacco product sales can inform potential future regulatory efforts at the national, state, and local levels.

Relationships Between Theoretically Derived Short-Term Outcomes and Support for Policy Among the Public and Decision-Makers

Purpose and Objectives Policy change is a lengthy and complex process. Thus, it is important to articulate hypothesized causal pathways between advocacy activities and policy change outcomes and to identify and monitor early indicators of progress toward policy change. Intervention Approach The Kansas Health Foundation supports grantee efforts to address the public health effects of obesity through evidence-based policy, systems, and environmental change interventions. To build support for policy, systems, and environmental changes in schools, workplaces, and health care and retail settings, grantees mobilize communities, educate government policy makers, and advocate with organizational decision makers. Evaluation Methods To understand whether early outcomes from obesity-prevention advocacy efforts predict interim outcomes related to eventual policy change, we conducted surveys of the general public and of opinion leaders in Kansas, which were designed to measure components of Kansas Health Foundation’s theory of change. We then used structural equation modeling to test the theory of change’s underlying relationships by using support for obesity prevention policies as the outcome. Results Our findings supported the hypothesized model: perceptions of obesity as a serious community problem influence beliefs about causes of the problem. Beliefs about causes predict beliefs about who is responsible for the solution to the problem, which in turn predicts support for obesity prevention policies. Implications for Public Health Evaluators of advocacy for policy change interventions can use this approach to monitor proximal changes in public and opinion leader beliefs related to eventual policy change and to determine whether efforts are likely to be successful or need to be adapted or abandoned.

Trends in Unit Sales of Flavored and Menthol Electronic Cigarettes in the United States, 2012-2016.

Introduction The use of flavored tobacco products, including electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes), is common in the United States, and flavored products are particularly appealing to young people. The objective of this study was to describe national and state trends in flavored and menthol e-cigarette unit sales. Methods We examined data on 4 types of e-cigarette products (rechargeables, disposables, prefilled cartridges, and e-liquid refills). We used Universal Product Code retail scanner data from 2 sources: 1) convenience stores and 2) all other outlets combined, including supermarkets, drug stores, mass merchandisers (including Walmart), dollar stores, club stores, and US Department of Defense commissaries. We aggregated data in 4-week periods for the 48 contiguous states and the District of Columbia for the 5-year period from 2012 through 2016. Data from vape shops and internet sales were not available. We used Joinpoint regression to assess trends. Results From 2012 through 2016, flavored e-cigarette sales as a percentage of all e-cigarette sales increased nationally (from 2.4% to 19.8%) and in all but 4 states (North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Vermont). Nationally, flavored disposable and prefilled cartridge sales increased. Menthol e-cigarette sales were stable nationally at 35% to 40%, while the percentage of menthol disposable, prefilled cartridge, and e-liquid refill sales decreased. By state, menthol e-cigarette sales increased in 2 states (Idaho and Nebraska) and decreased in 7 states. During 2015–2016, the percentage of flavored sales decreased in one state (Rhode Island) and increased in 29 states. Conclusion These findings demonstrate that sales of flavored e-cigarette products have increased dramatically since 2012, with variations by product type and state. Continued monitoring of sales trends at all retail outlets can inform federal, state, and local efforts to address flavored tobacco product use, including e-cigarettes, in the United States.

National and State-Specific Unit Sales and Prices for Electronic Cigarettes, United States, 2012–2016

Introduction Few studies have explored patterns of electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) sales and prices by product type over time. We used US retail scanner data to assess national and state-specific trends in e-cigarette unit sales and prices for 4 product types sold from 2012 through 2016. Methods Using retail scanner data from the 48 contiguous states and Washington, DC, for convenience stores; supermarkets; mass merchandisers; drug, dollar, and club stores; and military commissaries, we assessed data on monthly unit sales and inflation-adjusted prices by 4 products (rechargeables, disposables, prefilled cartridges, and e-liquids) sold during the 5-year study period. We evaluated national and state trends by using Joinpoint regression (P < .05). Results From 2012 through 2016, average national monthly unit sales significantly increased for all products, while average monthly prices of rechargeables, disposables, and prefilled cartridges significantly decreased. In 2016, prefilled cartridges had the highest average sales (766 units per 100,000 people) and the lowest average price (

Sales Trends in Price-Discounted Cigarettes, Large Cigars, Little Cigars, and Cigarillos—United States, 2011–2016

14.36 per unit). By state, average monthly sales significantly increased for at least 1 of 4 e-cigarette products in all 48 states and Washington, DC. However, during the same period, average monthly prices significantly decreased in 39 states for rechargeables, in 31 states for disposables, in 20 states for prefilled cartridges, and in 8 states for e-liquids. Conclusion Overall, US e-cigarette unit sales generally increased as product prices decreased. These findings demonstrate the rapidly evolving landscape of US e-cigarette retail marketplace. Ongoing surveillance of e-cigarette unit sales and price is critical for informing and evaluating evidence-based tobacco control strategies.

Electronic Cigarette Sales in the United States, 2013-2017

IntroductionnTobacco manufacturers continue to implement a range of pricing strategies to increase the affordability and consumption of tobacco products. To demonstrate the extent of retail- and brand-level price discounts at the point of sale, this study assessed national sales trends in price-discounted cigarettes, large cigars, little cigars, and cigarillos.nnnMethodsnRetail scanner data for tobacco product sales were obtained for convenience stores (C-store) and all-other-outlets-combined (AOC) from September 25, 2011, to January 9, 2016. The proportion of price-discounted sales, average nondiscounted unit price, and average discounted unit price were examined by product category and brand. JoinPoint regression was used to assess average monthly percentage change.nnnResultsnOverall, price-discounted sales accounted for 11.3% of cigarette, 3.4% of large cigar, 4.1% of little cigar, and 3.9% of cigarillo sales. The average difference between nondiscounted and discounted prices was 25.5% (C-store) and 36.7% (AOC) for cigarettes; 11.0% (C-store) and 11.2% (AOC) for large cigars; 19.2% (C-store) and 9.6% (AOC) for little cigars; and 5.3% (C-store) and 14.7% (AOC) for cigarillos. Furthermore, price-discounted sales of top-selling tobacco brands comprised up to 36% of cigarette, 7.4% of large cigar, 7.7% of little cigar, and 4.2% of cigarillo unit sales.nnnConclusionsnThese findings highlight the use of price discounts by tobacco manufacturers to reduce the cost of cigarettes, large cigars, little cigars, and cigarillos to consumers. These sales patterns underscore the importance of sustained efforts to implement evidence-based strategies to increase prices and reduce availability and consumption of combustible tobacco in the United States.nnnImplicationsnThis study highlights the prevalence and provides a baseline of price-discounted cigarettes, large cigars, little cigars, and cigarillos. Surveillance of tobacco sales data, including state-level trends and additional product types, is critical for informing approaches to reduce tobacco consumption. These approaches include countering tobacco product price-discounting practices and raising and maintaining a high sales price for all tobacco products. The implementation of evidence-based population-level interventions, together with local, state, and federal regulation of tobacco products, could prevent tobacco initiation, increase tobacco cessation, and reduce overall tobacco use among US youth and adults.