Todor Tagarev

Indicator space configuration for early warning of violent political conflicts by genetic algorithms

Recognition of preconflict situations has a powerful potential for early warning of violent political conflicts. This paper focuses on the design and application of artificial neural networks as classifiers of preconflict situations. Achieving a desired level of performance of the neural network relies on the appropriate construction of recognition space (selection of indicators) and the choice of network architecture. A fast and effective method for the design of reliable neural recognition systems is described. It is based on genetic algorithm techniques and optimizes both the configuration of input space and the network parameters. The implementation of the methodology provides for increased performance of the classifier in terms of accuracy, generalization capacity, computational and data requirements.

Object Oriented Model to Support Early Warning and Rapid Reaction Planning in International Context

Abstract The current security environment allows for greater integration of efforts to prevent war and conflict. This paper is focused on the technological aspects of a concept of an international Network of Situation Centers to support early warning and rapid reaction of the international community. It presents the Multilayer architecture of the system and object-oriented description of its components. Simulation experience and potential deterring effects of the concept arc briefly described.

Critical Information Infrastructure Protection Model and Methodology, Based on National and NATO Study

National and international security, our financial, industrial as well as economic prosperity, healthcare system and national well-being as a whole are dependent on critical infrastructures, which could be described as highly interdependent. Many examples are available such as the national electrical grid, oil and natural gas systems, telecommunication and information networks, transportation networks, water systems, and banking and financial systems. Keeping them in reliable and secure state and study their dependencies is paramount for every government or organization. There is an urgent need of their classification. Creation and development of model and methodology which could describe their behaviors is going to make this world safer. The presented here model and based on it study and initial results are steps toward reliable and secure critical information infrastructure.

Cyber Security and Resilience of Modern Societies: A Research Management Architecture

Advanced information and communications technologies (ICT) facilitate the increase of effectiveness and efficiency of defence and security organizations, governmental services, the economy, and quality of life, while at the same time providing opportunities for malicious actors to cause significant damage without exercising physical coercion. Policies for security and resilience of modern societies to threats and risks from the cyberspace account for foreseen cyber threats, their immediate impact on ICT infrastructure, consequent effects on critical services, as well as cascading effects across systems and infrastructures. This paper presents the architecture used to plan and, consequently, manage cybersecurity research in Bulgaria. It covers five application areas (information management systems; industrial control systems; unmanned and remotely piloted vehicles; bio-integrated systems; and cognitive processes and decision-making), the study of systems of systems, and support to the formulation and implementation of cybersecurity policy.

Scenarios for Resource Allocation to Bulgaria’s Defense in the Horizon of 2035

As part of the formulation of a vision for Bulgaria’s force development in the horizon of 2035, the authors were tasked to study the evolution of the economic environment and provide a view on the potential resource allocation to defense. Our study resulted in three scenarios—“Bulgaria in the gray zone of the European economic space,” “Peripheral economy,” and “Catching up economy”—each one plausible under a set of driving factors and conditions. The paper presents the process of scenario design, the scenarios, the respective defense budget levels and the impact on Bulgaria’s defense and armed forces.

Advancing Air and Air Defence Capabilities: What and How?

New security challenges and advances in technology—sensors, communications and information technologies in particular—impact the development of advanced air and air defence capabilities and the way air forces are organized and equipped for effective performance of their roles. Advances of transport technologies, sensor systems, and unmanned air vehicles of increasing variety all create opportunities hardly envisioned only a decade ago. Air forces around the world utilize some of these new technological opportunities to enhance existing and develop new transport, reconnaissance, C2 and strike capabilities and deal effectively with opponents on the modern ̳battlefield‘ and prove their worth vis a vis sister services.