Tom A. B. Snijders

Introduction to stochastic actor-based models for network dynamics

Abstract Stochastic actor-based models are models for network dynamics that can represent a wide variety of influences on network change, and allow to estimate parameters expressing such influences, and test corresponding hypotheses. The nodes in the network represent social actors, and the collection of ties represents a social relation. The assumptions posit that the network evolves as a stochastic process ‘driven by the actors’, i.e., the model lends itself especially for representing theories about how actors change their outgoing ties. The probabilities of tie changes are in part endogenously determined, i.e., as a function of the current network structure itself, and in part exogenously, as a function of characteristics of the nodes (‘actor covariates’) and of characteristics of pairs of nodes (‘dyadic covariates’). In an extended form, stochastic actor-based models can be used to analyze longitudinal data on social networks jointly with changing attributes of the actors: dynamics of networks and behavior. This paper gives an introduction to stochastic actor-based models for dynamics of directed networks, using only a minimum of mathematics. The focus is on understanding the basic principles of the model, understanding the results, and on sensible rules for model selection.

The statistical evaluation of social network dynamics

A class of statistical models is proposed for longitudinal network data. The dependent variable is the changing (or evolving) relation network, represented by two or more observations of a directed graph with a fixed set of actors. The network evolution is modeled as the consequence of the actors making new choices, or withdrawing existing choices, on the basis of functions, with fixed and random components, that the actors try to maximize. Individual and dyadic exogenous variables can be used as covariates. The change in the network is modeled as the stochastic result of network effects (reciprocity, transitivity, etc.) and these covariates. The existing network structure is a dynamic constraint for the evolution of the structure itself. The models are continuous-time Markov chain models that can be implemented as simulation models. The model parameters are estimated from observed data. For estimating and testing these models, statistical procedures are proposed that are based on the method of moments. The statistical procedures are implemented using a stochastic approximation algorithm based on computer simulations of the network evolution process.

New Specifications for Exponential Random Graph Models

The most promising class of statistical models for expressing structural properties of social networks observed at one moment in time is the class of exponential random graph models (ERGMs), also known as p* models. The strong point of these models is that they can represent a variety of structural tendencies, such as transitivity, that define complicated dependence patterns not easily modeled by more basic probability models. Recently, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have been developed that produce approximate maximum likelihood estimators. Applying these models in their traditional specification to observed network data often has led to problems, however, which can be traced back to the fact that important parts of the parameter space correspond to nearly degenerate distributions, which may lead to convergence problems of estimation algorithms, and a poor fit to empirical data. This paper proposes new specifications of exponential random graph models. These specifications represent structural properties such as transitivity and heterogeneity of degrees by more complicated graph statistics than the traditional star and triangle counts. Three kinds of statistics are proposed: geometrically weighted degree distributions, alternating k-triangles, and alternating independent two-paths. Examples are presented both of modeling graphs and digraphs, in which the new specifications lead to much better results than the earlier existing specifications of the ERGM. It is concluded that the new specifications increase the range and applicability of the ERGM as a tool for the statistical analysis of social networks.

Estimation and prediction for stochastic blockstructures

A statistical approach to a posteriori blockmodeling for digraphs and valued digraphs is proposed. The probability model assumes that the vertices of the digraph are partitioned into several unobserved (latent) classes and that the probability distribution of the relation between two vertices depends only on the classes to which they belong. A Bayesian estimator based on Gibbs sampling is proposed. The basic model is not identified, because class labels are arbitrary. The resulting identifiability problems are solved by restricting inference to the posterior distributions of invariant functions of the parameters and the vertex class membership. In addition, models are considered where class labels are identified by prior distributions for the class membership of some of the vertices. The model is illustrated by an example from the social networks literature (Kapferers tailor shop).

DYNAMIC NETWORKS AND BEHAVIOR: SEPARATING SELECTION FROM INFLUENCE

A recurrent problem in the analysis of behavioral dynamics, given a simultaneously evolving social network, is the difficulty of separating the effects of partner selection from the effects of social influence. Because misattribution of selection effects to social influence, or vice versa, suggests wrong conclusions about the social mechanisms underlying the observed dynamics, special diligence in data analysis is advisable. While a dependable and validmethod would benefit several research areas, according to the best of our knowledge, it has been lacking in the extant literature. In this paper, we present a recently developed family of statistical models that enables researchers to separate the two effects in a statistically adequate manner. To illustrate our method, we investigate the roles of homophile selection and peer influence mechanisms in the joint dynamics of friendship formation and substance use among adolescents. Making use of a three-wave panel measured in the years 1995–1997 at a school in Scotland, we are able to assess the strength of selection and influence mechanisms and quantify the relative contributions of homophile selection, assimilation to peers, and control mechanisms to observed similarity of substance use among friends.

Recent developments in exponential random graph (p*) models for social networks

This article reviews new specifications for exponential random graph models proposed by Snijders et al. [Snijders, T.A.B., Pattison, P., Robins, G.L., Handcock, M., 2006. New specifications for exponential random graph models. Sociological Methodology] and demonstrates their improvement over homogeneous Markov random graph models in fitting empirical network data. Not only do the new specifications show improvements in goodness of fit for various data sets, but they also help to avoid the problem of neardegeneracy that often afflicts the fitting of Markov random graph models in practice, particularly to network data exhibiting high levels of transitivity. The inclusion of a new higher order transitivity statistic allows estimation of parameters of exponential graph models for many (but not all) cases where it is impossible to estimate parameters of homogeneous Markov graph models. The new specifications were used to model a large number of classical small-scale network data sets and showed a dramatically better performance than Markov graph models. We also review three current programs for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters and we compare these Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimates with less accurate pseudo-likelihood estimates. Finally, we discuss whether homogeneous Markov random graph models may be superseded by the new specifications, and how additional elaborations may further improve model performance.

Modeled Variance in Two-Level Models

The concept of explained proportion of variance or modeled proportion of variance is reviewed in the situation of the random effects hierarchical two-level model. It is argued that the proportional reduction in (estimated) variance components is not an attractive parameter to represent the joint importance of the explanatory (independent) variables for modeling the dependent variable. It is preferable instead to work with the proportional reduction in mean squared prediction error for predicting individual values (for the modeled variance at level 1) and the proportional reduction in mean squared prediction error for predicting group averages (for the modeled variance at level 2). It is shown that when predictors are added, the proportion of modeled variance defined in this way cannot go down in the population if the model is correctly specified, but can go down in a sample; the latter situation then points to the possibility of misspecification. This provides a diagnostic means for identifying misspecification.

Sensitivity of MRQAP tests to collinearity and autocorrelation conditions

Abstract Multiple regression quadratic assignment procedures (MRQAP) tests are permutation tests for multiple linear regression model coefficients for data organized in square matrices of relatedness among n objects. Such a data structure is typical in social network studies, where variables indicate some type of relation between a given set of actors. We present a new permutation method (called “double semi-partialing”, or DSP) that complements the family of extant approaches to MRQAP tests. We assess the statistical bias (type I error rate) and statistical power of the set of five methods, including DSP, across a variety of conditions of network autocorrelation, of spuriousness (size of confounder effect), and of skewness in the data. These conditions are explored across three assumed data distributions: normal, gamma, and negative binomial. We find that the Freedman–Lane method and the DSP method are the most robust against a wide array of these conditions. We also find that all five methods perform better if the test statistic is pivotal. Finally, we find limitations of usefulness for MRQAP tests: All tests degrade under simultaneous conditions of extreme skewness and high spuriousness for gamma and negative binomial distributions.

Standard Errors and Sample Sizes for Two-Level Research

The hierarchical linear model approach to a two-level design is considered, some variables at the lower level having fixed and others having random regression coefficients. An approximation is derived to the covariance matrix of the estimators of the fixed regression coefficients (for variables at the lower and the higher level) under the assumption that the sample sizes at either level are large enough. This covariance matrix is expressed as a function of parameters occurring in the model. If a research planner can make a reasonable guess as to these parameters, this approximation can be used as a guide to the choice of sample sizes at either level.

Stochastic actor-oriented models for network change

A class of models is proposed for longitudinal network data. These models are along the lines of methodological individualism: actors use heuristics to try to achieve their individual goals, subject to constraints. The current network structure is among these constraints. The models are continuous time Markov chain models that can be implemented as simulation models. They incorporate random change in addition to the purposeful change that follows from the actors’ pursuit of their goals, and include parameters that must be estimated from observed data. Statistical methods are proposed for estimating and testing these models. These methods can also be used for parameter estimation for other simulation models. The statistical procedures are based on the method of moments, and use computer simulation to estimate the theoretical moments. The Robbins‐Monro process is used to deal with the stochastic nature of the estimated theoretical moments. An example is given for Newcombs fraternity data, using a model tha...