Tom J. Coulthard

The long term fate and environmental significance of contaminant metals released by the January and March 2000 mining tailings dam failures in Maramureş County, upper Tisa Basin, Romania

In January and March 2000 two tailings dam failures in Maramures County, northwest Romania, resulted in the release of 200,000 m3 of contaminated water and 40,000 tonnes of tailings into tributaries of the Tisa River, a major tributary of the Danube. The high concentrations of cyanide and contaminant metals released by these dam failures resulted in pollution and fish deaths not only in Romania, but also downstream in the Tisa and Danube rivers within Hungary, Serbia and Bulgaria. Following these accidents, a research programme was initiated in northwest Romania to establish metal levels in rivers affected by the tailings dam failures and to compare these to metal values in river systems contaminated by historic mining and industrial activity. In July 2000, 65 surface water, 65 river sediment and 45 floodplain sediment samples were collected from trunk streams and principal tributaries of the Lapus/Somes rivers (affected by the January 2000 spill) and the Viseu/Tisa rivers (affected by the March 2000 Novat spill) down to the Hungarian and Ukrainian borders, respectively. Sample analyses for Pb, Zn Cu and Cd show that metal contamination in surface water and river sediment decreases rapidly downstream away from presently active mines and tailings ponds. Concentrations of heavy metals in water and sediment leaving Romania, and entering Hungary and the Ukraine, generally fall below EC imperative and Dutch intervention values, respectively. However, Zn, Cu and Cd concentrations in river sediments approach or exceed intervention values at the Romanian border. The results of this survey are compared with earlier surveys to ascertain the long-term fate and environmental significance of contaminant metals released by mine tailings dam failures in Maramures County.

Modelling geomorphic response to environmental change in an upland catchment

In the UKs upland catchments river terraces and alluvial features indicate a history of periodic aggradation and degradation linked to Holocene changes in land use (primarily deforestation) and climate change (altering flood frequency and magnitude). Although both factors are important, calculating their individual effects is complicated by the likelihood of their concurrent alteration. To investigate the relative impacts of land use and climate change, a cellular model is applied to the upland catchments of Cam Gill Beck, above Starbotton, North Yorkshire. This is divided into 1 million 2 m by 2 m grid cells, to which a range of process laws are applied. These include approximate expressions for mass movement rates, soil creep, the influence of vegetation and hillslope hydrology, as well as fluvial erosion and deposition in ten grain-size fractions. This provides a good representation of valley floor geometry while retaining a fully dynamic interaction with the surrounding valley sides. Previous applications of this model have shown the detailed formation of bars and berms as well as examples of braiding, avulsion and channel range. Running on a Silicon Graphics Origin 2000 computer, an ensemble of simulations were completed, bracketing a wide range of environmental scenarios involving changes in flood frequency, magnitude and vegetation cover. Over time-scales ranging from 10 to 100 years, these showed that decreasing tree cover and increasing rainfall magnitude individually produced similar 25% to 100% increases in sediment discharge, whereas in combination they generated a 1300% rise. Furthermore, channels formed by the model in response to increased rainfall magnitudes are located where relic channels are found in Cam Gill Beck, implying that these are the products of previous periods of high rainfall magnitudes. Copyright

The impact of tailings dam spills and clean-up operations on sediment and water quality in river systems: the Rı́os Agrio–Guadiamar, Aznalcóllar, Spain

The Aznalcollar tailings dam at Boliden Apirsas Aznalcollar/Los Frailes Ag–Cu–Pb–Zn mine 45 km west of Seville, Spain, was breached on 25 April 1998, flooding approximately 4600 hectares of land along the Rios Agrio and Guadiamar with approximately 5.5 million m3 of acidic water and 1.3×106 m3 of heavy metal-bearing tailings. Most of the deposited tailings and approximately 4.7×106 m3 of contaminated soils were removed to the Aznalcollar open pit during clean-up work undertaken immediately after the spill until January 1999. Detailed geomorphological and geochemical surveys of the post-clean-up channel, floodplain and valley floor, and sediment and water sampling, were carried out in January and May 1999 at 6 reaches representative of the types of river channel and floodplain environments in the Rio Guadiamar catchment affected by the spill. The collected data show that the clean-up operations removed enough spill-deposited sediment to achieve pre-spill metal (Ag, As, Cd, Cu, Pb, Sb, Tl, Zn) concentrations in surface sediment. These concentrations, however, are still elevated above pre-mining concentrations, and emphasise that mining continues to contaminate the Agrio-Guadiamar river system. Dilution by relatively uncontaminated sediment appears to reduce metal concentrations downstream but increases in metal and As concentrations occur downstream, presumably as a result of factors such as sewage and agriculture. River water samples collected in May 1999 have significantly greater dissolved concentrations of metals and As than those from January 1999, probably due to greater sulphide oxidation from residual tailings with concomitant release of metals in the warmer early summer months. These concentrations are reduced downstream, probably by a combination of dilution and removal of metals by mineral precipitation. Single chemical extractions (de-ionised water, CaCl2 0.01 mol l−1, CH3COONH4 1 M, CH3COONa 1 M and ammonium oxalate 0.2 M) on alluvial samples from reaches 1 and 6, the tailings, pre-spill alluvium and marl have shown that the order of sediment-borne contaminant mobility is generally Zn>Cd>Cu>Pb>As. Pb and As are relatively immobile except possibly under reducing conditions. Much of the highly contaminated sediment remaining in the floodplain and channel still contains a large proportion of tailings-related sulphide minerals which are potentially reactive and may continue to release contaminants to the Agrio–Guadiamar river system. Our work emphasises the need for pre-mining geomorphological and geochemical data, and an assessment of potential contributions of contaminants to river systems from other, non-mining sources.

Self-organized criticality in river basins: Challenging sedimentary records of environmental change

For many years researchers have linked increases in sediment and bedload from drainage basins to external factors such as increased rainfall. However, natural systems have always shown a high degree of scatter or nonlinearity in this response, which has made prediction of sediment yields difficult. We identify and describe a mechanism for self-organized criticality in the bedload sediment output from a simple drainage basin evolution model. This implies that identical floods will give considerably different sediment yields, which effectively renders the system unpredictable. Therefore, existing empirical methods for estimating sediment yields may need to be radically reevaluated. Furthermore, sedimentary records used to infer past climate or environmental conditions could simply reflect the internal system dynamics instead of external drivers.

Methane Dynamics in Peat: Importance of Shallow Peats and a Novel Reduced‐Complexity Approach for Modeling Ebullition

Northern peatlands are one of the largest natural sources of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), and it is important to understand the mechanisms of CH 4 loss from these peatlands so that future rates of CH 4 emission can be predicted. CH 4 is lost to the atmosphere from peatlands by diffusion, by plant transport, and as bubbles (ebullition). We argue that ebullition has not been accounted for properly in many previous studies, both in terms of measurement and the conceptualization of the mechanisms involved. We present a new conceptual model of bubble buildup and release that emphasizes the importance of near-surface peat as a source of atmospheric CH 4 . We review two possible approaches to modeling bubble buildup and loss within peat soils: the recently proposed bubble threshold approach and a fully computational-fluid-dynamics approach. We suggest that neither satisfies the needs of peatland CH 4 models, and we propose a new reduced-complexity approach that conceptualizes bubble buildup and release as broadly similar to an upside down sandpile. Unlike the threshold approach, our model allows bubbles to accumulate at different depths within the peat profile according to peat structure, yet it retains the simplicity of many cellular (including cellular automata) models. Comparison of the results from one prototype of our model with data from a laboratory experiment suggests that the model captures some of the key dynamics of ebullition in that it reproduces well observed frequency-magnitude relationships. We outline ways in which the model may be further developed to improve its predictive capabilities.

Exploratory modeling: Extracting causality from complexity

On 22 May 2011 a massive tornado tore through Joplin, Mo., killing 158 people. With winds blowing faster than 200 miles per hour, the tornado was the most deadly in the United States since modern record keeping began in the 1950s.

Were Rivers Flowing across the Sahara During the Last Interglacial? Implications for Human Migration through Africa

Human migration north through Africa is contentious. This paper uses a novel palaeohydrological and hydraulic modelling approach to test the hypothesis that under wetter climates c.100,000 years ago major river systems ran north across the Sahara to the Mediterranean, creating viable migration routes. We confirm that three of these now buried palaeo river systems could have been active at the key time of human migration across the Sahara. Unexpectedly, it is the most western of these three rivers, the Irharhar river, that represents the most likely route for human migration. The Irharhar river flows directly south to north, uniquely linking the mountain areas experiencing monsoon climates at these times to temperate Mediterranean environments where food and resources would have been abundant. The findings have major implications for our understanding of how humans migrated north through Africa, for the first time providing a quantitative perspective on the probabilities that these routes were viable for human habitation at these times.

Riparian vegetation and the late Holocene development of an anabranching river: Magela Creek, northern Australia

Many anabranching rivers are characterized by dynamic interactions between fluvial processes and riparian vegetation, but uncertainties surround the processes and time scales of anabranch development. We use geomorphological investigations and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating to determine spatial and temporal trends in the development of anabranching along a 6.5-km-long reach of Magela Creek in the seasonal tropics of northern Australia. Many trees and shrubs that survive the wet-season floods establish on the sandy beds and lower banks, such that anabranches divide and rejoin around numerous ridges and islands that are formed mainly by accretion in the lee of in-channel vegetation and, less commonly, by excision from formerly continuous island or flood plain surfaces. Once ridges and islands form, colonizing vegetation maintains their stability by increasing sediment cohesion and decreasing flow erosivity. Over the Holocene, Magela Creek has vertically aggraded and extended in length by delta progradation into Madjinbardi Billabong, resulting in a time sequence of anabranches and associated ridges and islands from older (upstream) to younger (downstream). OSL ages for islands in the upstream and middle reaches are ca. 1.6 ka and older, and the narrow, deep anabranches (width/depth [w/d] typically ~10–30) have few in-channel obstructions. Farther downstream, island OSL ages are ca. 0.7 ka and younger, anabranches tend to be wider and shallower (w/d >30) with more obstructions, and splays and locally scoured island and floodplain surfaces are more common. Based on these findings, previous flow and sediment-transport measurements, and theoretical analyses, we posit that there is a decline in anabranch efficiency from an upstream equilibrium system in mass-flux balance to a downstream disequilibrium system characterized by bed aggradation and localized island and floodplain erosion. In the downstream reaches, inefficient (high w/d and obstructed) anabranches do not persist because they either aggrade and are abandoned, or they are subdivided into more efficient (lower w/d and less obstructed) anabranches as a result of the interactions between in-channel vegetation growth and ridge and island accretion or local excision. Consequently, a more efficient anabranching system gradually develops with characteristics similar to those in the upstream reaches. This enhances downstream sediment transfer, which enables ongoing delta progradation and provides fresh sediment surfaces for vegetation to colonize and initiate new anabranches. The OSL ages from Magela Creek demonstrate that a recognizable but relatively inefficient anabranching system can develop within a few centuries, while adjustment to a more efficient system occurs over a few millennia.

Integration of shelf evolution and river basin models to simulate Holocene sediment dynamics of the Humber Estuary during periods of sea-level change and variations in catchment sediment supply

Three modelling elements and sedimentary evidence provide an understanding of sediment characteristics, river basin processes, tidal regimes and sea-level changes to explain sediment supply to the Humber Estuary through the Holocene (the last 10,000 years). An upscaled cellular catchment model simulates water and sediment fluxes from river basins, illustrating significant variations in response to climate change, especially precipitation and vegetation changes, principally deforestation. Much of the sediment mobilised remains in stores within the catchment and only a small fraction reaches the Humber tidal system. An empirical model helps to explain sediment erosion, transport and deposition from the offshore and coastal zones through the Holocene and sea-level rise caused the transgression of the continental shelf of the North Sea. Comparison with the sediment fill of the lowlands around of the Humber estuary, that represent the extent of the estuary during the Holocene, demonstrates that most of the fill (approximately 95-98%) was derived from non-fluvial sources. A shelf evolution model, with reconstructions of sea level, palaeogeography and palaeobathymetry for 1,000 year time steps through the Holocene predicts significant changes in tidal regimes, first over wide areas of the coast as the transgression of the continental shelf progresses. The most significant changes occur with the inner reaches of the palaeo-estuaries, especially those of the Humber and the Fenland. Throughout the mid-Holocene they are characterised by significantly lower tidal ranges (MWHST approximately 2.5 m less than present) and low tidal currents. The simulated patterns of tidal currents concur with the transport of fine grain sediment from the coastal zone into the estuaries. The major tidal range changes revise estimates of late Holocene and ongoing relative sea and land level changes.

Modelling river history and evolution

Over the last few decades, a suite of numerical models has been developed for studying river history and evolution that is almost as diverse as the subject of river history itself. A distinction can be made between landscape evolution models (LEMs), alluvial architecture models, meander models, cellular models and computational fluid dynamics models. Although these models share some similarities, there also are notable differences between them, which make them more or less suitable for simulating particular aspects of river history and evolution. LEMs embrace entire drainage basins at the price of detail; alluvial architecture models simulate sedimentary facies but oversimplify flow characteristics; and computational fluid dynamics models have to assume a fixed channel form. While all these models have helped us to predict erosion and depositional processes as well as fluvial landscape evolution, some areas of prediction are likely to remain limited and short-term owing to the often nonlinear response of fluvial systems. Nevertheless, progress in model algorithms, computing and field data capture will lead to greater integration between these approaches and thus the ability to interpret river history more comprehensively.