Tom Levanič

Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era

An atlas of megadroughts in Europe and in the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era provides insights into climate variability. Climate model projections suggest widespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in the coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other “Old World” climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the “Old World Drought Atlas” (OWDA), a set of year-to-year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era. The OWDA matches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes. The OWDA provides new data to determine the causes of Old World drought and wetness and attribute past climate variability to forced and/or internal variability.

Spatial variability and temporal trends in water‐use efficiency of European forests

The increasing carbon dioxide (CO2 ) concentration in the atmosphere in combination with climatic changes throughout the last century are likely to have had a profound effect on the physiology of trees: altering the carbon and water fluxes passing through the stomatal pores. However, the magnitude and spatial patterns of such changes in natural forests remain highly uncertain. Here, stable carbon isotope ratios from a network of 35 tree-ring sites located across Europe are investigated to determine the intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), the ratio of photosynthesis to stomatal conductance from 1901 to 2000. The results were compared with simulations of a dynamic vegetation model (LPX-Bern 1.0) that integrates numerous ecosystem and land-atmosphere exchange processes in a theoretical framework. The spatial pattern of tree-ring derived iWUE of the investigated coniferous and deciduous species and the model results agreed significantly with a clear south-to-north gradient, as well as a general increase in iWUE over the 20th century. The magnitude of the iWUE increase was not spatially uniform, with the strongest increase observed and modelled for temperate forests in Central Europe, a region where summer soil-water availability decreased over the last century. We were able to demonstrate that the combined effects of increasing CO2 and climate change leading to soil drying have resulted in an accelerated increase in iWUE. These findings will help to reduce uncertainties in the land surface schemes of global climate models, where vegetation-climate feedbacks are currently still poorly constrained by observational data.

Three centuries of insect outbreaks across the European Alps

Knowledge of the persistence of regular larch budmoth outbreaks is limited in space and time. Although dendrochronological methods have been used to reconstruct insect outbreaks, their presence may be obscured by climatic influences. More than 5000 tree-ring series from 70 larch host and 73 spruce nonhost sites within the European Alps and Tatra Mountains were compiled. Site-specific assessment of growth-climate responses and the application of six larch budmoth detection methods considering host, nonhost and instrumental time-series revealed spatiotemporal patterns of insect defoliation across the Alpine arc. Annual maps of reconstructed defoliation showed historical persistence of cyclic outbreaks at the site level, recurring c. every 8-9 yr. Larch budmoth outbreaks occurred independently of rising temperatures from the Little Ice Age until recent warmth. Although no collapse in outbreak periodicity was recorded at the local scale, synchronized Alpine-wide defoliation has ceased during recent decades. Our study demonstrates the persistence of recurring insect outbreaks during AD 1700-2000 and emphasizes that a widely distributed tree-ring network and novel analysis methods can contribute towards an understanding of the changes in outbreak amplitude, synchrony and climate dependence.

The climate sensitivity of Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] in the southeastern European Alps

To investigate the potential of Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) as a palaeoclimate archive in the southeastern European Alps, tree ring chronologies were developed from trees growing at two sites in Slovenia which differed in their ecological and climatological characteristics. Ring width, maximum latewood density, annual height increment and latewood cellulose carbon isotope composition were determined at both sites and the resulting time-series compared with and verified against instrumental climate data for their common period (AD 1960–AD 2002). Results indicate that ring width sensitivity to summer temperature is very site-dependent, with opposing responses at alpine and lowland sites. Maximum density responds to September temperatures, indicating lignification after cell division has ceased. Stable carbon isotopes have most potential, responding strongly to summer temperature in both alpine and lowland stands. Height increment appears relatively insensitive to climate, and is likely to be dominated by local stand dynamics.

A 520 year record of summer sunshine for the eastern European Alps based on stable carbon isotopes in larch tree rings

A 520-year stable carbon isotope chronology from tree ring cellulose in high altitude larch trees (Larix decidua Mill.), from the eastern European Alps, correlates more strongly with summer temperature than with summer sunshine hours. However, when instrumental records of temperature and sunshine diverge after AD1980, the tree ring time series does not follow warming summer temperatures but more closely tracks summer sunshine trends. When the tree ring stable carbon isotope record is used to reconstruct summer temperature the reconstruction is not robust. Reconstructed temperatures prior to the twentieth century are higher than regional instrumental records, and the evolution of temperature conflicts with other regional temperature reconstructions. It is concluded that sunshine is the dominant control on carbon isotope fractionation in these trees, via the influence of photosynthetic rate on the internal partial pressure of CO2, and that high summer (July–August) sunshine hours is a suitable target for climate reconstruction. We thus present the first reconstruction of summer sunshine for the eastern Alps and compare it with the regional temperature evolution.

Simultaneous determination of stable carbon, oxygen and hydrogen isotopes in cellulose

A technological development is described through which the stable carbon-, oxygen-, and nonexchangeable hydrogen-isotopic ratios (δ(13)C, δ(18)O, δ(2)H) are determined on a single carbohydrate (cellulose) sample with precision equivalent to conventional techniques (δ(13)C 0.15‰, δ(18)O 0.30‰, δ(2)H 3.0‰). This triple-isotope approach offers significant new research opportunities, most notably in physiology and medicine, isotope biogeochemistry, forensic science, and palaeoclimatology, when isotopic analysis of a common sample is desirable or when sample material is limited.

Anatomical characteristics and hydrologic signals in tree-rings of oaks (Quercus robur L.)

Key messageAnatomical characteristics and hydrologic signals in tree-rings of oaks from areas with regular flooding may vary, even within the same forest stand, and largely depend on the micro-environmental conditions.AbstractQ. robur decline in European floodplain forests in recent years seems to be strongly associated with the deteriorating hydrological regime. We investigated the influence of the Krka River flow on tree-ring patterns of Q. robur from the Krakovo floodplain forests (Slovenia) to assess the effect of micro-location conditions on hydrological signals in wood-anatomical characteristics. We selected two groups of Q. robur trees growing at nearby locations with different hydrological conditions, resulting in frequent autumn and spring flooding at the wetter site (=W oaks) but no flooding at the other, drier site (=D oaks). We found differences between the two groups in the anatomical structure of tree-rings; however, ring width proved to be the main variable determining the anatomical structure of oak wood. D and W oaks responded differently to the Krka River flow in the studied period. Radial growth of D oaks was negatively influenced by spring flow, but positively influenced by minimum summer flow. In W oaks, ring width was positively correlated with mean summer flow. Thus, environmental information stored in wood-anatomical features may vary, even within the same forest stand, and largely depends on the micro-environment. Reduced wood increments of D oaks suggest that growth conditions are less favourable, implying a link between the health state of oaks from lowland forest and hydrological conditions. Trees intended for hydrological reconstruction must therefore be carefully selected to avoid the possibility of error and potential loss of information. Anatomical characteristics and hydrological signals in tree-rings of oaks from areas with regular flooding may vary, even within the same forest stand, and largely depends on the micro-environmental conditions.

Early summer temperatures reconstructed from black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) tree-ring widths from Albania

The first regional chronology of black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) from Albania, its response to climate and a 428-year long reconstruction of June–July temperatures for the 1583–2010 period are presented. Samples were collected at five locations from the north to the south of Albania. We constructed a 552-year long Pinus nigra chronology with sufficient sample depth for potential climate reconstruction from 1583 to 2010 (428 years). Response to precipitation was significant only for July of the current year (0.23), while a clear temperature response to the May–August period was identified, with July having by far the highest correlation (−0.47). When combined, June–July temperatures had the highest correlation of all tested combinations (r = −0.63), explaining almost 40% of the tree-ring width variability. The test of the climate signal temporal stability using a 31-year running correlation highlighted the very stable relationship between tree-ring indices and June–July temperatures. The spatial extent of the regional Pinus nigra chronology tested, using a field correlation function, showed very high spatial correlation over a large part of the Balkan Peninsula and even southern Italy. Based on high explained variance between tree-ring indices and June–July temperatures and significant values of reduction of error (RE) and coefficient of efficiency statistics (CE; 0.62 and 0.25 in the calibration period), a linear model was developed, with June–July temperatures reconstructed for the 1583–2010 period. Our reconstruction and identified extreme years were compared with various temperature, drought and precipitation reconstructions from nearby regions, as well as data from documentary archives. We confirmed a high degree of similarity of our reconstruction with other reconstructions and documentary data.

Variations in Environmental Signals in Tree-Ring Indices in Trees with Different Growth Potential.

We analysed two groups of Quercus robur trees, growing at nearby plots with different micro-location condition (W-wet and D-dry) in the floodplain Krakovo forest, Slovenia. In the study we compared the growth response of two different tree groups to environmental variables, the potential signal stored in earlywood (EW) structure and the potential difference of the information stored in carbon isotope discrimination of EW and latewood (LW). For that purpose EW and LW widths and carbon isotope discrimination for the period 1970–2008 AD were measured. EW and LW widths were measured on stained microscopic slides and chronologies were standardised using the ARSTAN program. α-cellulose was extracted from pooled EW and LW samples and homogenized samples were further analysed using an elemental analyser and IRMS. We discovered that W oaks grew significantly better over the whole analysed period. The difference between D and W oaks was significant in all analysed variables with the exception of stable carbon isotope discrimination in latewood. In W oaks, latewood widths correlated with summer (June to August) climatic variables, while carbon isotope discrimination was more connected to River Krka flow during the summer. EW discrimination correlated with summer and autumn River Krka flow of the previous year, while latewood discrimination correlated with flow during the current year. In the case of D oaks, the environmental signal appears to be vague, probably due to less favourable growth conditions resulting in markedly reduced increments. Our study revealed important differences in responses to environmental factors between the two oak groups of different physiological conditions that are preconditioned by environmental stress. Environmental information stored in tree-ring features may vary, even within the same forest stand, and largely depends on the micro-environment. Our analysis confirmed our assumptions that separate EW and LW analysis of widths and carbon isotope discrimination provides complementary information in Q. robur dendroecology.

Climatically controlled reproduction drives interannual growth variability in a temperate tree species

Abstract Climatically controlled allocation to reproduction is a key mechanism by which climate influences tree growth and may explain lagged correlations between climate and growth. We used continent‐wide datasets of tree‐ring chronologies and annual reproductive effort in Fagus sylvatica from 1901 to 2015 to characterise relationships between climate, reproduction and growth. Results highlight that variable allocation to reproduction is a key factor for growth in this species, and that high reproductive effort (‘mast years’) is associated with stem growth reduction. Additionally, high reproductive effort is associated with previous summer temperature, creating lagged climate effects on growth. Consequently, understanding growth variability in forest ecosystems requires the incorporation of reproduction, which can be highly variable. Our results suggest that future response of growth dynamics to climate change in this species will be strongly influenced by the response of reproduction.