Tom Marshall

Bristol, Shipman, and clinical governance: Shewhart's forgotten lessons

During the past century, manufacturing industry has achieved great success in improving the quality of its products. An essential factor in this success has been the use of Walter A Shewharts pioneering work in the economic control of variation, which culminated in the development of a simple yet powerful graphical method known as the control chart. This chart classifies variation as having a common cause or special cause and thus guides the user to the most appropriate action to effect improvement. Using six case studies, including the excess deaths after paediatric cardiac surgery seen in Bristol, UK, and the activities of general practitioner turned murderer Harold Shipman, we show a central role for Shewharts approach in turning the rhetoric of clinical governance into a reality.

Exploring a fiscal food policy: the case of diet and ischaemic heart disease.

# Exploring a fiscal food policy: the case of diet and ischaemic heart disease {#article-title-2} Diet determines cholesterol concentrations, and cholesterol concentrations determine the prevalence of ischaemic heart disease. This paper explores the potential effects of fiscal measures on diet and ischaemic heart disease. There is a clear economic rationale for this approach: the correction of market failure caused by externalities. Externalities are said to occur when some of the costs of consumption are not borne by the consumer. When ischaemic heart disease strikes, there are costs to the community (productivity losses or indirect costs) and to the health service (direct costs). A case can therefore be made for using taxation to compensate for the external costs of an atherogenic diet. #### Summary points Current dietary patterns are partly responsible for the high risk of ischaemic heart disease in Britain, in particular among low income groups; these dietary patterns are reinforced by the material constraints of poverty Pricing of foodstuffs encourages the purchase and consumption of a cholesterol raising diet, particularly among people with tight food budgets By extending value added tax to the main sources of dietary saturated fat, between 900 and 1000 premature deaths a year might be avoided The additional tax revenue could finance compensatory measures to raise income for low income groups Econometric and health policy research should investigate the effects of price changes on diet and health The relation between diet, serum cholesterol concentrations, and ischaemic heart disease is relatively well understood. In individuals, serum cholesterol concentrations—or more specifically, the ratio of low density lipoprotein to high density lipoprotein—are a major determinant of the risk of ischaemic heart disease. Serum cholesterol concentrations are largely determined by the proportion of dietary energy derived from saturated or polyunsaturated fats and by dietary intake of cholesterol. The Keys equation (box), which has recently been corroborated, describes this in a simple mathematical relationship.1 3 #### The Keys equation Change in … Correspondence to: E Kennedy

Performance league tables: the NHS deserves better

League tables are frequently used to depict comparative performance in sport and commerce. However, extension of their use to rank services provided by healthcare agencies has attracted resistance, criticism, and anxiety. In this article we discuss the benefits and drawbacks of league tables and suggest that an alternative technique, based on statistical process control, could be introduced in their place. We believe that this technique would have the dual advantage of being less threatening to providers of health services and would be more easily understood and correctly interpreted by patients, auditors, and commissioners of services. ### Summary points League tables are an established technique for displaying the comparative ranking of organisations in terms of their performance League tables provoke anxiety and concern among health service providers for several reasons, including concerns over adjustment for case mix and the role of chance in determining their rank Control charts, used for monitoring and control of variation in the manufacturing industry, overcome these problems by displaying performance without ranking and helping to differentiate between random variation and that due to special causes League tables are useful for comparing quality or outputs from different systems, whereas control charts are more useful for comparison of units within a single system, such as the NHS Control charts avoid stigmatising “poor performers” and promote the use of a systems approach to quality improvement For many years league tables have been used to rank the quality of goods or services provided by competing organisations. They are commonly published in the popular press and magazines, specialist journals, and the internet. These tables range from those that simply rank crude performance on indicators to those that report sophisticated comparisons of summary adjusted statistics (such as those with uncertainty intervals around the rank). The public is prepared to pay intermediaries, such as financial advisers, …

Development and validation of an electronic frailty index using routine primary care electronic health record data

Background: frailty is an especially problematic expression of population ageing. International guidelines recommend routine identification of frailty to provide evidence-based treatment, but currently available tools require additional resource. Objectives: to develop and validate an electronic frailty index (eFI) using routinely available primary care electronic health record data. Study design and setting: retrospective cohort study. Development and internal validation cohorts were established using a randomly split sample of the ResearchOne primary care database. External validation cohort established using THIN database. Participants: patients aged 65–95, registered with a ResearchOne or THIN practice on 14 October 2008. Predictors: we constructed the eFI using the cumulative deficit frailty model as our theoretical framework. The eFI score is calculated by the presence or absence of individual deficits as a proportion of the total possible. Categories of fit, mild, moderate and severe frailty were defined using population quartiles. Outcomes: outcomes were 1-, 3- and 5-year mortality, hospitalisation and nursing home admission. Statistical analysis: hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using bivariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Calibration was assessed using pseudo-R2 estimates. Results: we include data from a total of 931,541 patients. The eFI incorporates 36 deficits constructed using 2,171 CTV3 codes. One-year adjusted HR for mortality was 1.92 (95% CI 1.81–2.04) for mild frailty, 3.10 (95% CI 2.91–3.31) for moderate frailty and 4.52 (95% CI 4.16–4.91) for severe frailty. Corresponding estimates for hospitalisation were 1.93 (95% CI 1.86–2.01), 3.04 (95% CI 2.90–3.19) and 4.73 (95% CI 4.43–5.06) and for nursing home admission were 1.89 (95% CI 1.63–2.15), 3.19 (95% CI 2.73–3.73) and 4.76 (95% CI 3.92–5.77), with good to moderate discrimination but low calibration estimates. Conclusions: the eFI uses routine data to identify older people with mild, moderate and severe frailty, with robust predictive validity for outcomes of mortality, hospitalisation and nursing home admission. Routine implementation of the eFI could enable delivery of evidence-based interventions to improve outcomes for this vulnerable group.

A pilot double‐blind randomised placebo‐controlled trial of the effects of fixed‐dose combination therapy (‘polypill’) on cardiovascular risk factors

Aim:  Our objective was to investigate the effects and tolerability of fixed‐dose combination therapy on blood pressure and LDL in adults without elevated blood pressure or lipid levels.

The risk of colorectal cancer with symptoms at different ages and between the sexes: a case-control study

BackgroundColorectal cancer is generally diagnosed following a symptomatic presentation to primary care. Although the presenting features of the cancer are well described, the risks they convey are less well known. This study aimed to quantify the risk of cancer for different symptoms, across age groups and in both sexes.MethodsThis was a case-control study using pre-existing records in a large electronic primary care database. Cases were patients aged 30 years or older with a diagnosis of colorectal cancer between January 2001 and July 2006, matched to seven controls by age, sex and practice. All features of colorectal cancer recorded in the 2 years before diagnosis were identified. Features independently associated with cancer were identified using multivariable conditional logistic regression, and their risk of cancer quantified.ResultsWe identified 5477 cases, with 38,314 age, sex and practice-matched controls. Six symptoms and two abnormal investigations (anaemia and microcytosis) were independently associated with colorectal cancer. The positive predictive values of symptoms were: rectal bleeding, positive predictive value for a male aged ≥ 80 years 4.5% (95% confidence interval 3.5, 5.9); change in bowel habit 3.9% (2.8, 5.5); weight loss 0.8% (0.5, 1.3); abdominal pain 1.2% (1.0, 1.4); diarrhoea 1.2% (1.0, 1.5) and constipation 0.7% (0.6, 0.8). Positive predictive values were lower in females and younger patients. Only 27% of patients had reported either of the two higher risk symptoms.ConclusionMost symptomatic colorectal cancers present with only a low-risk symptom. There is a need to find a method of identifying those at highest risk of cancer from the large number presenting with such symptoms.

Community Programs for the Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease: A Systematic Review

In this systematic review, the authors aimed to assess the effectiveness of community programs for prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). They searched numerous electronic databases (CDSR, DARE, HTA, EED, and CENTRAL via the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, MEDLINE In Process, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, HMIC, and ASSIA) and relevant Web sites from January 1970 to mid-July 2008. Controlled studies of community programs for the primary prevention of CVD were included. Net changes in CVD risk factors were used to generate an overall index for net change in 10-year CVD risk. The authors identified 36 relevant community programs that took place between 1970 and 2008. These programs were multifaceted interventions employing combinations of media, screening, and counseling activities and environmental changes and were primarily evaluated using controlled before-after studies. In 7 studies, investigators reported changes in CVD/total mortality rates, and in 5 they reported net changes. In all cases, these net changes were positive but were largely nonsignificant. In 22 studies, investigators reported changes in physiologic CVD risk factors, and there was a positive trend in the calculated CVD risk score. The average net reduction in 10-year CVD risk was 0.65%. Community programs for CVD prevention appear to have generally achieved favorable changes in overall CVD risk and, with adaptation to current circumstances, deserve continued consideration as possible approaches to preventing CVD.

Clustering of autoimmune disease in parents of siblings from the Type 1 diabetes Warren repository.

Aims  Autoimmune disorders co‐exist in the same individuals and in families, implying a shared aetiology. The aim of this study was to compare the prevalence of the common autoimmune diseases in the parents of siblings from the Type 1 diabetes Warren repository with the general population.

The importance of anaemia in diagnosing colorectal cancer: a case–control study using electronic primary care records

Although anaemia is recognised as a feature of colorectal cancer, the precise risk is unknown. We performed a case–control study using electronic primary care records from the Health Improvement Network database, UK. A total of 6442 patients had a diagnosis of colorectal cancer, and were matched to 45 066 controls on age, sex, and practice. We calculated likelihood ratios and positive predictive values for colorectal cancer in both sexes across 1 g dl−1 haemoglobin and 10-year age bands, and examined the features of iron deficiency.In men, 178 (5.2%) of 3421 cases and 47 (0.2%) of 23 928 controls had a haemoglobin <9.0 g dl−1, giving a likelihood ratio (95% confidence interval) of 27 (19, 36). In women, the corresponding figures were 227 (7.5%) of 3021 cases and 58 (0.3%) of 21 138 controls, a likelihood ratio of 41 (30, 61). Positive predictive values increased with age and for each 1 g dl−1 reduction in haemoglobin. The risk of cancer for current referral guidance was quantified. For men over 60 years with a haemoglobin <11 g dl−1 and features of iron deficiency, the positive predictive value was 13.3% (9.7, 18) and for women with a haemoglobin <10 g dl−1 and iron deficiency, the positive predictive value was 7.7% (5.7, 11). Current guidance for urgent investigation of anaemia misses some patients with a moderate risk of cancer, particularly men.

Hypoglycaemia is associated with increased length of stay and mortality in people with diabetes who are hospitalized.

Diabet. Med. 29, e445–e448 (2012)