Tom McDermott

Multi-level Modeling of Complex Socio-Technical Systems

Abstract The application of multi-level modeling approaches to enterprise systems modeling can support leadership decision making for transformation of defense department operations. In particular, this paper presents a framework for modeling enterprise transformation applied to complex analysis of defense in an era of technology globalization. Large-scale public-private enterprises can generally be described as complex adaptive systems. Multi-level modeling of complex adaptive systems is considered as an approach to inform leadership of actions and consequences of decisions addressing transformative change. An example is elaborated for the domain of secure defense communications. A framework for modeling the secure communications enterprise presents an interesting case for exploration of both multi-level modeling approaches and potential policy guidance at a global level. Finally, the use of these types of models to enable policy exploration is illustrated for the particular case of counterfeit parts in the supply chain of military communication systems. The paper concludes with recommendations for further work in validating the modeling approach and application of the approach to a sample policy flight simulator representing counterfeit parts policy in military systems.

Emergence as innovation in systems of systems — A three systems model

While emergence tends to be discussed as an outcome of a system of systems (SoS), it should be viewed as a process. Emergence is often the result of innovation within an SoS. We contend that, because of the complex adaptive nature of SoS, the assessment of the potential for innovation to create positive change is necessary for effective evolutionary planning. Innovation potential represents the convergence of three systems: the system of interest, the innovation system, and the context where these interact and come together. The three-system model is a useful perspective to assess the potential impact of innovation on the evolution of an SoS, and to describe the context of SoS emergence as enabled or constrained by its innovation system. We describe a set of methods and tools adapted from both SoS engineering and human-centered design which can be used for strategic design and planning of SoS evolution. The methods and tools are discussed with respect to the potential emergence of Internet of Things (IoT) technologies into the context of urban transportation systems, a complex adaptive SoS.

INCOSE academic research forum — Future systems engineering research directions

This paper describes a program organized by the INCOSE Academic Council to determine future directions in systems engineering (SE) research. This program uses a framework coupling societal need to systems challenges, then to gaps in the capabilities of SE, which inform the direction of future SE research. The results of the first workshop are presented including a description of the grand challenges in the four selected areas of societal needs, problem definitions, desired results, obstacles and related research questions. The paper concludes with a summary and description of the future work for this program.

Analysis of political and trade decisions in international gas markets: A model-based systems engineering framework

By taking a model-based systems engineering (MBSE) approach, a framework can be developed for long-term exploration of a complex adaptive system in multiple contexts. The framework uses MBSE tools to define the complex system architecture and modern internet state transfer and structured data format standards to integrate natural language descriptions, datasets, and models. These can constitute a knowledge architecture that can be used as a long-term research tool. The long-term goal is a framework that captures conceptual models of the complex system, data sets and relationships, dynamic models and simulations, and decision analytics within a common environment. This paper presents a scenario in which we evaluate links between transformations of complex natural gas systems and analyze political intervention into the Russian-European natural gas markets. In this example, we specifically examine geographical, physical (cross-border infrastructure), and commercial value streams through the prism of network analyses. This is one context of a more general model of international gas relationships and flows at multiple levels. The resulting framework provides insight into dynamic behaviors at multiple levels of the system, such as the emergence of infrastructure network and intricate relationships of strong corporate ties and knowledge networks, along with possible strategies for political and economic intervention. The primary goal of an MBSE approach is to capture interrelationships in the complex system at varying levels of abstraction, which enables a common reference for diverse models and datasets.