Tom Rohan

Alcohol, tobacco and breast cancer - collaborative reanalysis of individual data from 53 epidemiological studies, including 58515 women with breast cancer and 95067 women without the disease

Alcohol and tobacco consumption are closely correlated and published results on their association with breast cancer have not always allowed adequately for confounding between these exposures. Over 80% of the relevant information worldwide on alcohol and tobacco consumption and breast cancer were collated, checked and analysed centrally. Analyses included 58 515 women with invasive breast cancer and 95 067 controls from 53 studies. Relative risks of breast cancer were estimated, after stratifying by study, age, parity and, where appropriate, womens age when their first child was born and consumption of alcohol and tobacco. The average consumption of alcohol reported by controls from developed countries was 6.0 g per day, i.e. about half a unit/drink of alcohol per day, and was greater in ever-smokers than never-smokers, (8.4 g per day and 5.0 g per day, respectively). Compared with women who reported drinking no alcohol, the relative risk of breast cancer was 1.32 (1.19–1.45, P<0.00001) for an intake of 35–44 g per day alcohol, and 1.46 (1.33–1.61, P<0.00001) for ⩾45 g per day alcohol. The relative risk of breast cancer increased by 7.1% (95% CI 5.5–8.7%; P<0.00001) for each additional 10 g per day intake of alcohol, i.e. for each extra unit or drink of alcohol consumed on a daily basis. This increase was the same in ever-smokers and never-smokers (7.1% per 10 g per day, P<0.00001, in each group). By contrast, the relationship between smoking and breast cancer was substantially confounded by the effect of alcohol. When analyses were restricted to 22 255 women with breast cancer and 40 832 controls who reported drinking no alcohol, smoking was not associated with breast cancer (compared to never-smokers, relative risk for ever-smokers=1.03, 95% CI 0.98–1.07, and for current smokers=0.99, 0.92–1.05). The results for alcohol and for tobacco did not vary substantially across studies, study designs, or according to 15 personal characteristics of the women; nor were the findings materially confounded by any of these factors. If the observed relationship for alcohol is causal, these results suggest that about 4% of the breast cancers in developed countries are attributable to alcohol. In developing countries, where alcohol consumption among controls averaged only 0.4 g per day, alcohol would have a negligible effect on the incidence of breast cancer. In conclusion, smoking has little or no independent effect on the risk of developing breast cancer; the effect of alcohol on breast cancer needs to be interpreted in the context of its beneficial effects, in moderation, on cardiovascular disease and its harmful effects on cirrhosis and cancers of the mouth, larynx, oesophagus and liver.Alcohol and tobacco consumption are closely correlated and published results on their association with breast cancer have not always allowed adequately for confounding between these exposures. Over 80% of the relevant information worldwide on alcohol and tobacco consumption and breast cancer were collated, checked and analysed centrally. Analyses included 58 515 women with invasive breast cancer and 95 067 controls from 53 studies. Relative risks of breast cancer were estimated, after stratifying by study, age, parity and, where appropriate, womens age when their first child was born and consumption of alcohol and tobacco. The average consumption of alcohol reported by controls from developed countries was 6.0 g per day, i.e. about half a unit/drink of alcohol per day, and was greater in ever-smokers than never-smokers, (8.4 g per day and 5.0 g per day, respectively). Compared with women who reported drinking no alcohol, the relative risk of breast cancer was 1.32 (1.19–1.45, P<0.00001) for an intake of 35–44 g per day alcohol, and 1.46 (1.33–1.61, P<0.00001) for ⩾45 g per day alcohol. The relative risk of breast cancer increased by 7.1% (95% CI 5.5–8.7%; P<0.00001) for each additional 10 g per day intake of alcohol, i.e. for each extra unit or drink of alcohol consumed on a daily basis. This increase was the same in ever-smokers and never-smokers (7.1% per 10 g per day, P<0.00001, in each group). By contrast, the relationship between smoking and breast cancer was substantially confounded by the effect of alcohol. When analyses were restricted to 22 255 women with breast cancer and 40 832 controls who reported drinking no alcohol, smoking was not associated with breast cancer (compared to never-smokers, relative risk for ever-smokers=1.03, 95% CI 0.98–1.07, and for current smokers=0.99, 0.92–1.05). The results for alcohol and for tobacco did not vary substantially across studies, study designs, or according to 15 personal characteristics of the women; nor were the findings materially confounded by any of these factors. If the observed relationship for alcohol is causal, these results suggest that about 4% of the breast cancers in developed countries are attributable to alcohol. In developing countries, where alcohol consumption among controls averaged only 0.4 g per day, alcohol would have a negligible effect on the incidence of breast cancer. In conclusion, smoking has little or no independent effect on the risk of developing breast cancer; the effect of alcohol on breast cancer needs to be interpreted in the context of its beneficial effects, in moderation, on cardiovascular disease and its harmful effects on cirrhosis and cancers of the mouth, larynx, oesophagus and liver.

Calcium Plus Vitamin D Supplementation and the Risk of Breast Cancer

BACKGROUNDnAlthough some observational studies have associated higher calcium intake and especially higher vitamin D intake and 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels with lower breast cancer risk, no randomized trial has evaluated these relationships.nnnMETHODSnPostmenopausal women (N = 36 282) who were enrolled in a Womens Health Initiative clinical trial were randomly assigned to 1000 mg of elemental calcium with 400 IU of vitamin D(3) daily or placebo for a mean of 7.0 years to determine the effects of supplement use on incidence of hip fracture. Mammograms and breast exams were serially conducted. Invasive breast cancer was a secondary outcome. Baseline serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels were assessed in a nested case-control study of 1067 case patients and 1067 control subjects. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the risk of breast cancer associated with random assignment to calcium with vitamin D(3). Associations between 25-hydroxyvitamin D serum levels and total vitamin D intake, body mass index (BMI), recreational physical activity, and breast cancer risks were evaluated using logistic regression models. Statistical tests were two-sided.nnnRESULTSnInvasive breast cancer incidence was similar in the two groups (528 supplement vs 546 placebo; hazard ratio = 0.96; 95% confidence interval = 0.85 to 1.09). In the nested case-control study, no effect of supplement group assignment on breast cancer risk was seen. Baseline 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels were modestly correlated with total vitamin D intake (diet and supplements) (r = 0.19, P < .001) and were higher among women with lower BMI and higher recreational physical activity (both P < .001). Baseline 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels were not associated with breast cancer risk in analyses that were adjusted for BMI and physical activity (P(trend) = .20).nnnCONCLUSIONSnCalcium and vitamin D supplementation did not reduce invasive breast cancer incidence in postmenopausal women. In addition, 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels were not associated with subsequent breast cancer risk. These findings do not support a relationship between total vitamin D intake and 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels with breast cancer risk.

Circulating sex hormones and breast cancer risk factors in postmenopausal women: reanalysis of 13 studies.

Background:Breast cancer risk for postmenopausal women is positively associated with circulating concentrations of oestrogens and androgens, but the determinants of these hormones are not well understood.Methods:Cross-sectional analyses of breast cancer risk factors and circulating hormone concentrations in more than 6000 postmenopausal women controls in 13 prospective studies.Results:Concentrations of all hormones were lower in older than younger women, with the largest difference for dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHEAS), whereas sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) was higher in the older women. Androgens were lower in women with bilateral ovariectomy than in naturally postmenopausal women, with the largest difference for free testosterone. All hormones were higher in obese than lean women, with the largest difference for free oestradiol, whereas SHBG was lower in obese women. Smokers of 15+ cigarettes per day had higher levels of all hormones than non-smokers, with the largest difference for testosterone. Drinkers of 20+u2009g alcohol per day had higher levels of all hormones, but lower SHBG, than non-drinkers, with the largest difference for DHEAS. Hormone concentrations were not strongly related to age at menarche, parity, age at first full-term pregnancy or family history of breast cancer.Conclusion:Sex hormone concentrations were strongly associated with several established or suspected risk factors for breast cancer, and may mediate the effects of these factors on breast cancer risk.

Circulating insulin-like growth factor axis and the risk of pancreatic cancer in four prospective cohorts

Insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-I induces growth in pancreatic cancer cells and blockade of the IGF-I receptor has antitumour activity. The association of plasma IGF-I and IGF binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3) with pancreatic cancer risk has been investigated in two small studies, with conflicting results. We conducted a nested case–control study within four large, prospective cohorts to investigate whether prediagnostic plasma levels of IGF-I, IGF-II, and IGFBP-3 were associated with pancreatic cancer risk. Plasma levels in 212 cases and 635 matched controls were compared by conditional logistic regression, with adjustment for other known pancreatic cancer risk factors. No association was observed between plasma levels of IGF-I, IGF-II, or IGFBP-3 and incident diagnosis of pancreatic cancer. Relative risks for the highest vs the lowest quartile of IGF-I, IGF-II, and IGFBP-3 were 0.94 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.60–1.48), 0.96 (95% CI, 0.61–1.52), and 1.21 (95% CI, 0.75–1.92), respectively. The relative risk for the molar ratio of IGF-I and IGFBP-3, a surrogate measure for free IGF-I, was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.54–1.31). Additionally, no association was noted in stratified analyses or when requiring longer follow-up. In four prospective cohorts, we found no association between the risk of pancreatic cancer and prediagnostic plasma levels of IGF-I, IGF-II, or IGFBP-3.

Alcohol and folate intake and breast cancer risk in the WHI Observational Study

Background Alcohol increases breast cancer risk. Epidemiological studies suggest folate may modify this relationship. Objective To examine the relationship among breast cancer, alcohol and folate in the Women’s Health Initiative-Observational Study (WHI-OS). Methods 88,530 postmenopausal women 50–79xa0years completed baseline questionnaires between October 1993 and December 1998, which addressed alcohol and folate intake and breast cancer risk factors. Cox proportional hazards analysis examined the relationship between self-reported baseline alcohol and folate intake and incident breast cancer. Results 1,783 breast cancer cases occurred over 5xa0years. Alcohol was associated with increased risk of breast cancer (RRxa0=xa01.005, 95%CI 1.001–1.009). Risk increased with consumption of alcohol (up to 5xa0g/d, adjusted HRxa0=xa01.10, 95%CI 0.96–1.32; >5–15xa0g/d HRxa0=xa01.14, 95%CI 0.99–1.31; and >15xa0g/d HRxa0=xa01.13 95%CI 0.96–1.32). We found no significant interaction between alcohol and folate in our adjusted model. Conclusions We found no evidence for folate attenuating alcohol’s effect on breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women. Our results may be due to misclassification of folate intake or the relatively short follow-up period.

Twenty-year trends of primary liver cancer incidence rates in an urban Chinese population

The objective of this study was to describe trends in the incidence rates of primary liver cancer in a geographically defined Chinese population. Primary liver cancer cases (N=13u2009685) were diagnosed between 1981 and 2000 and identified by the Tianjin Cancer Registry. Age-adjusted and age-specific incidence rates were examined in both males and females. Poisson regression was employed to assess the incidence rate trends. Crude and age-adjusted incidence rates in the study period were: 27.4/100u2009000 and 16.4/100u2009000 in males and 11.5/100u2009000 and 6.4/100u2009000 in females, respectively. While the results from Poisson regression analyses suggest statistically significant trends of declining incidence rates of primary liver cancer overall, trends were not consistent across age and sex groups. The decline in incidence was observed, for the most part, in the 40–69 age group, with a greater decrease in males. Our findings provide a new evidence of a downward trend in incidence rates of this disease in China for a period of 20 years. As the observed decline is relatively small and inconsistent across sex and age groups, a continued epidemiological observation on this condition is required.

Steroid hormone measurements from different types of assays in relation to body mass index and breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women: Reanalysis of eighteen prospective studies.

Epidemiological studies have examined breast cancer risk in relation to sex hormone concentrations measured by different methods: “extraction” immunoassays (with prior purification by organic solvent extraction, with or without column chromatography), “direct” immunoassays (no prior extraction or column chromatography), and more recently with mass spectrometry-based assays. We describe the associations of estradiol, estrone and testosterone with both body mass index and breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women according to assay method, using data from a collaborative pooled analysis of 18 prospective studies. In general, hormone concentrations were highest in studies that used direct assays and lowest in studies that used mass spectrometry-based assays. Estradiol and estrone were strongly positively associated with body mass index, regardless of the assay method; testosterone was positively associated with body mass index for direct assays, but less clearly for extraction assays, and there were few data for mass spectrometry assays. The correlations of estradiol with body mass index, estrone and testosterone were lower for direct assays than for extraction and mass spectrometry assays, suggesting that the estimates from the direct assays were less precise. For breast cancer risk, all three hormones were strongly positively associated with risk regardless of assay method (except for testosterone by mass spectrometry where there were few data), with no statistically significant differences in the trends, but differences may emerge as new data accumulate. Future epidemiological and clinical research studies should continue to use the most accurate assays that are feasible within the design characteristics of each study.

Continuous Combined Estrogen Plus Progestin and Endometrial Cancer: The Women’s Health Initiative Randomized Trial

BACKGROUNDnWhile progestin addition to estrogen mitigates endometrial cancer risk, the magnitude of the effect on incidence, specific endometrial cancer histologies, and endometrial cancer mortality remains unsettled. These issues were assessed by analyses after extended follow-up of the Womens Health Initiative (WHI) randomized clinical trial evaluating continuous combined estrogen plus progestin use.nnnMETHODSnThe WHI enrolled 16 608 postmenopausal women into a randomly assigned, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Women age 50 to 79 years with intact uteri with normal endometrial biopsy at entry were randomly assigned to once-daily 0.625 mg conjugated equine estrogen plus 2.5mg medroxyprogesterone acetate (n = 8506) as a single pill or matching placebo (n = 8102). Follow-up beyond the original trial completion date required reconsent, obtained from 12 788 (83%) of surviving participants. Analyses were by intent-to-treat. All statistical tests were two-sided.nnnRESULTSnAfter 5.6 years median intervention and 13 years median cumulative follow-up, there were fewer endometrial cancers in the combined hormone therapy compared with the placebo group (66 vs 95 case patients, yearly incidence, 0.06% vs 0.10%; hazard ratio [HR] = 0.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.48 to 0.89, P = .007). While there were somewhat fewer endometrial cancers during intervention (25 vs 30, respectively; HR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.45 to 1.31), the difference became statistically significant postintervention (41 vs 65, respectively; HR = 0.59, 95% CI = 0.40 to 0.88, P = .008), but hazard ratios did not differ between phases (P difference = .46). There was a statistically nonsignificant reduction in deaths from endometrial cancer in the estrogen plus progestin group (5 vs 11 deaths, HR = 0.42, 95% CI = 0.15 to 1.22).nnnCONCLUSIONnIn postmenopausal women, continuous combined estrogen plus progestin decreases endometrial cancer incidence.

The etiology of uterine sarcomas: a pooled analysis of the epidemiology of endometrial cancer consortium.

Background:Uterine sarcomas are characterised by early age at diagnosis, poor prognosis, and higher incidence among Black compared with White women, but their aetiology is poorly understood. Therefore, we performed a pooled analysis of data collected in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium. We also examined risk factor associations for malignant mixed mullerian tumours (MMMTs) and endometrioid endometrial carcinomas (EECs) for comparison purposes.Methods:We pooled data on 229 uterine sarcomas, 244 MMMTs, 7623 EEC cases, and 28u2009829 controls. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk factors associated with uterine sarcoma, MMMT, and EEC were estimated with polytomous logistic regression. We also examined associations between epidemiological factors and histological subtypes of uterine sarcoma.Results:Significant risk factors for uterine sarcoma included obesity (body mass index (BMI)⩾30 vs BMI<25u2009kgu2009m−2 (OR: 1.73, 95% CI: 1.22–2.46), P-trend=0.008) and history of diabetes (OR: 2.33, 95% CI: 1.41–3.83). Older age at menarche was inversely associated with uterine sarcoma risk (⩾15 years vs <11 years (OR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.34–1.44), P-trend: 0.04). BMI was significantly, but less strongly related to uterine sarcomas compared with EECs (OR: 3.03, 95% CI: 2.82–3.26) or MMMTs (OR: 2.25, 95% CI: 1.60–3.15, P-heterogeneity=0.01).Conclusion:In the largest aetiological study of uterine sarcomas, associations between menstrual, hormonal, and anthropometric risk factors and uterine sarcoma were similar to those identified for EEC. Further exploration of factors that might explain patterns of age- and race-specific incidence rates for uterine sarcoma are needed.

A longitudinal study of serum insulin and glucose levels in relation to colorectal cancer risk among postmenopausal women.

Background:It is unclear whether circulating insulin or glucose levels are associated with increased risk of colorectal cancer. Few prospective studies have examined this question, and only one study had repeated measurements.Methods:We conducted a prospective study of colorectal cancer risk using the subsample of women in the Womens Health Initiative study whose fasting blood samples, collected at baseline and during follow-up, were analysed for insulin and glucose. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess associations with colorectal cancer risk in both baseline and time-dependent covariates analyses.Results:Among 4902 non-diabetic women with baseline fasting serum insulin and glucose values, 81 incident cases of colorectal cancer were identified over 12 years of follow-up. Baseline glucose levels were positively associated with colorectal cancer and colon cancer risk: multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) comparing the highest (⩾99.5u2009mgu2009dl−1) with the lowest tertile (<89.5u2009mgu2009dl−1): 1.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.97–3.15 and 2.25, 95% CI: 1.12–4.51, respectively. Serum insulin and homeostasis model assessment were not associated with risk. Analyses of repeated measurements supported the baseline results.Conclusion:These data suggest that elevated serum glucose levels may be a risk factor for colorectal cancer in postmenopausal women.