Tom W. Rice

Civic Culture and Democracy from Europe to America

In this study we explore the extent to which the civic cultures of European immigrants to the United States persist in their contemporary descendants. Analyses using data from the World Values Survey and the cumulative General Social Surveys indicate that the civic attitudes of contemporary Americans bear a strong resemblance to the civic attitudes of the contemporary citizens of the European nations with whom they share common ancestors. The Americans who descend from nations with highly civic populations tend to hold relatively civic attitudes, while those who descend from nations with less civic populations tend to hold relatively less civic attitudes. The significance of these findings for democracy is discussed.

Social Capital and Government Performance in Iowa Communities

Putnam (1993) provides impressive evidence that the enduring geographic patterns of social capital in Italy influence regional government performance. His work has motivated other scholars to search for a link between social capital and performance among nations and other large subnational entities. The purpose of this study is to extend this line of research to the community level. To accomplish this a unique data set consisting of the opinions of approximately 100 people in each of 114 Iowa communities was collected. The data made it possible to examine the extent to which towns characterized as high in social capital by their residents tend to be towns where citizens see their local governments as more responsive and effective. The analyses show a clear relationship: local governments are viewed as more responsive and effective in towns described as high in social capital by their citizens. Additional analyses reveal that social capital is also related to the upkeep of public streets and parks in the communities. Both of these relationships remain significant even after controlling for a variety of socioeconomic factors.

Forecasting presidential elections: A comparison of naive models

Our primary aim is to forecast, rather than explain, presidential election results, using aggregate time series data from the post-World War II period. More particularly, we seek prediction of the presidential winner well before the election actually occurs. After comparing the performance of several naive blvariate models based on economic performance, international involvement, political experience, and presidential popularity, we go on to formulate a multivariate model. This economy-popularity regression model rather accurately forecasts the winner 6 months in advance of the election, by employing spring measures of presidential popularity and the growth rate in real GNP per capita. Furthermore, the models performance, both ex post facto and prior to the election, compares favorably with the Gallup final preelection poll taken only a few days before the election.

The Relationship between Divisive Primaries and General Election Outcomes

This research examines the effect of divisive primaries on general election outcomes. Small group research is used to establish a theoretical framework for understanding the behavior implicit in the divisive primary hypothesis. We contend that the opposing sides in a primary battle develop in-group loyalties and out-group hostilities similar to those documented by social psychologists studying small group behavior. In order to empirically test this hypothesis, we develop a new measure of primary divisiveness. Previous research has failed to consider the divisiveness of one partys primary relative to the other partys primary when assessing the impact of divisiveness on general election outcomes. Using ordinary least-squares regression, we find that divisive presidential primaries do indeed have a deleterious effect on the general election results. Specifically, when one party has a divisive primary season while the other partys nominee is essentially uncontested, then the divided party will be adversely affected in November.

Localism in Presidential Elections: The Home State Advantage

According to the folk wisdom of American politics, a presidential candidate has a vote advantage in his home state. While this proposition has intuitive appeal, it has never been tested. We evaluated the evidence, and found that presidential candidates actually do have a home state advantage. Further, in spite of the nationalization of certain other political processes, this local advantage has exhibited no diminution across time. Finally, the magnitude of the home state advantage for a particular candidate is rather predictable, depending especially on the size of the state population.

The Effect of Primary Divisiveness in Gubernatorial and Senatorial Elections

This study examines the relationship between primary divisiveness and general election results in gubernatorial and senatorial elections. Previous work in this area has been unable to substantiate this relationship. However, these inconclusive results may be due in part to conceptual and methodological shortcomings. We attempt to avoid such pitfalls in an effort to test the divisive primary hypothesis more effectively. Our study, which analyzes separately gubernatorial and senatorial elections, reveals that a divisive primary adversely affects a partys chance for general election victory. Curiously, the analysis also demonstrates that divisive primaries disadvantage senatorial candidates more than gubernatorial candidates, and Democratics more than Republicans.

The Psychology of Political Momentum

In this article we examine the psychological processes that lead people to display bandwagon behavior. Next, we test these theories against the momentum that got rolling for George Bush in the 1988 presidential prenomination campaign. The NES Super Tuesday panel data from that year provide the necessary data. Our results suggest that individuals switched to Bush for a variety of reasons. Some got caught up in the excitement of the momentum and threw their support to the vice president uncritically. Others backed him because they liked the feeling of supporting the favorite Still others reluctantly switched to him even though they liked another can didate better because they felt Bush had the nomination locked up. Finally, some people joined in the momentum because they became convinced that Bush had the best chance of carrying the Republicans to victory in November.

White Ethnic Diversity and Community Attachment in Small Iowa Towns

Objectives. This study examines the relationship between white ethnic diversity and community attachment in 99 small Iowa towns. Methods. Our data come from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Rural Development Initiative (RDI) at Iowa State University. The RDI data, which consist of interviews with approximately 110 people in each of the 99 towns, are used to develop a community attachment score for each town. These scores serve as the dependent variable in ordinary least squares regression models to assess the extent to which ethnic diversity is related to attachment. Results. The findings show that towns with high levels of white ethnic diversity tend to have low levels of community attachment. Moreover, residents of diverse towns tend to view their communities with more suspicion and tend to be less involved in community activities than citizens in more homogeneous towns. Conclusions. Looked at narrowly, these results indicate that white ethnic diversity may be detrimental to community building in small Iowa towns. More broadly, the findings provide support for the idea that white ethnic diversity is alive and well in America.

Subjective Well-Being and Culture Across Time and Space:

The authors compare the subjective well-being of citizens in 20 nations with the subjective well-being of Americans who claim to have ancestors from those nations. The results show that the rank order of the well-being scores for the citizens of the 20 nations is similar to the rank order of the well-being scores for the Americans with ancestors from those nations. This finding suggests that the aspects of culture that influence subjective well-being have been passed from people who lived centuries ago to their contemporary descendants at home and in America. Additional analysis suggests that religion may be an important agent in the transmission process.

Presidential Prenomination Preferences and Candidate Evaluations

Recent research has altered our understanding of how voters select a candidate in U.S. presidential elections. Scholars have demonstrated empirically that issues, candidate personalities, candidate evaluations, and party identification interact in a dynamic simultaneous fashion to determine vote choice. Other researchers have shown that prenomination candidate preferences play an integral role in structuring the general election vote. We join together these two important trends to introduce and test a revised model of vote choice, using 1980 NES panel data. The results reconfirm that candidate selection is part of a dynamic simultaneous process and reveal for the first time that prenomination preferences are woven tightly into this causal web.