Tomasz Hinz

Probability modelling of vessel collisions

Among engineers, risk is defined as a product of probability of the occurrence of an undesired event and the expected consequences in terms of human, economic, and environmental loss. These two components are equally important; therefore, the appropriate estimation of these values is a matter of great significance. This paper deals with one of these two components—the assessment of the probability of vessels colliding, presenting a new approach for the geometrical probability of collision estimation on the basis of maritime and aviation experience. The geometrical model that is being introduced in this paper takes into account registered vessel traffic data and generalised vessel dynamics and uses advanced statistical and optimisation methods (Monte Carlo and genetic algorithms). The results obtained from the model are compared with registered data for maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland and a good agreement is found.

Towards the Development of a Risk Model for Unmanned Vessels Design and Operations

An unmanned merchant vessel seems to be escaping from the stage of idea exploration. Once the concept proofs its safety, it may become a part of maritime reality. Although the safety aspect of such a ship has been addressed by a handful of scholars, the problem remains open. This is mainly due to lack of knowledge regarding actual operational circumstances and design of unmanned ships, which are yet to be developed. In the attempt of bridging this gap, the risk analysis associated with unmanned ships needs to be carried out, where all relevant hazards and consequences are assessed and quantified in systematic manner. In this paper we present the results of a first step of such analysis, namely the hazard analysis associated with the unmanned ships. The list of hazards covers various aspects of unmanned shipping originating from both design and operational phases of vessel’s life. Subsequently the hazards and related consequences are organized in a casual manner, resulting in the development of a structure of a risk model.

Mathematical models in description of capsizing scenarios

Nowadays, although the knowledge of the causes of capsizing is more and more vast, still the large quantities of ships sink as a result of capsizing accidents. Therefore, this particular subject is widely discussed in the paper as a major issue among many prominent research centres. Presently, the results of the numerical simulations represent the most important part in these debates. This paper is my first attempt to demonstrate some of the main mathematical models used in hydrodynamics to describe different scenarios of capsizing. Generally, the article concentrates on non-linear models due to the fact that they are widely employed to practical calculations. These models are used both for capsizing tests and, very often, for judging design parameters, such as slamming, green-water-on-deck, etc. The choice of mentioned scenarios was made according to their frequency in real circumstances.