Tomislav Victor Kovandzic

Police levels and crime rates revisited: A county-level analysis from Florida (1980-1998)

Abstract Research on the police–crime relationship generally shows police levels have little impact on crime rates. Two recent studies [Criminology 34 (1996) 609; American Economics Review 87 (1997) 270.] presented evidence that prior police–crime studies were methodologically flawed and found that increased police levels reduced crime. Using county-level data collected from Florida for the period 1980–1998 and a multiple time series (MTS) design, this study revisited the police–crime relationship. for a sample of large cities, the study found that increased police levels reduced most types of crime at the county level. Similar results have now been reported in three recent studies using similar research designs but different units of analysis and time periods. Due to this, prior research showing no relationship between police levels and crime should be reconsidered.

The impact of women's status and gender inequality on female homicide victimization rates: evidence from U.S. counties

Feminists have long argued that structural inequality between men and women influences the prevalence of female homicide victimization. In the present study, a cross-sectional analysis was performed using data on 3,083 U.S. counties in 2000 to assess the impact of women’s absolute status and gender inequality along educational, employment, income, and occupational dimensions and patriarchal culture on their risk of homicide victimization. The findings indicate that only women’s absolute status contributes to our understanding of cross-sectional variation in female homicide rates across U.S. counties and lends support to Marxist feminist theory.

“Striking out” as crime reduction policy: The impact of “three strikes” laws on crime rates in U.S. cities

During the 1990s, in response to public dissatisfaction over what were perceived as ineffective crime reduction policies, 25 states and Congress passed three strikes laws, designed to deter criminal offenders by mandating significant sentence enhancements for those with prior convictions. Few large-scale evaluations of the impact of these laws on crime rates, however, have been conducted. Our study used a multiple time series design and UCR data from 188 cities with populations of 100,000 or more for the two decades from 1980 to 2000. We found, first, that three strikes laws are positively associated with homicide rates in cities in three strikes states and, second, that cities in three strikes states witnessed no significant reduction in crime rates.

The effect of medical marijuana laws on crime: evidence from state panel data, 1990-2006.

Background Debate has surrounded the legalization of marijuana for medical purposes for decades. Some have argued medical marijuana legalization (MML) poses a threat to public health and safety, perhaps also affecting crime rates. In recent years, some U.S. states have legalized marijuana for medical purposes, reigniting political and public interest in the impact of marijuana legalization on a range of outcomes. Methods Relying on U.S. state panel data, we analyzed the association between state MML and state crime rates for all Part I offenses collected by the FBI. Findings Results did not indicate a crime exacerbating effect of MML on any of the Part I offenses. Alternatively, state MML may be correlated with a reduction in homicide and assault rates, net of other covariates. Conclusions These findings run counter to arguments suggesting the legalization of marijuana for medical purposes poses a danger to public health in terms of exposure to violent crime and property crimes.

The Impact of Right-to-Carry Concealed Firearm Laws on Mass Public Shootings

Right-to-carry (RTC) laws mandate that concealed weapon permits be granted to qualified applicants. Such laws could reduce the number of mass public shootings as prospective shooters consider the possibility of encountering armed civilians. However, these laws might increase the number of shootings by making it easier for prospective shooters to acquire guns. We evaluate 25 RTC laws using state panel data for 1977 through 1999. We estimate numerous Poisson and negative binomial models and find virtually no support for the hypothesis that the laws increase or reduce the number of mass public shootings.

Women's status and risk of homicide victimization: An analysis with data disaggregated by victim-offender relationship

Several feminist theories predict that womens socioeconomic status, both absolute status and their status relative to men, influences the prevalence of violence against women, with some suggesting a positive correlation and others a negative one. Although each theory provides insight into the possible causal connection between womens status, gender inequality, and violence, empirical tests of these relationships are inconclusive. The present study addresses this issue by using a cross-sectional design with 2000 census and crime data to assess the impact of womens absolute status and gender inequality along educational, employment, income, and occupational dimensions and their risk of homicide victimization by intimate partners and nonintimates. The findings indicate that womens absolute status is significantly correlated with female homicide victimization rates by intimate partners. However, tests for equality of regression coefficients between the intimate and nonintimate partner models suggest that these differences may be attributed to random chance.

City-level characteristics and individual handgun ownership: effects of collective security and homicide

General Social Survey (GSS) data are used in a multilevel analysis to examine the relationship between an individuals decision to own a handgun and his or her citys (a) homicide rate and (b) police strength level. The cities in which respondents lived were identified using special supplementary codes provided by the National Opinion Research Center so that information about surrounding cities could be attached to each GSS respondent. Logistic regression analyses indicate that the likelihood of handgun ownership is increased by higher local homicide rates. The effects are not mediated by the individuals own victimization experiences or fear of crime. Positive macro-level associations previously found between homicide rates and gun ownership levels may be indicative of homicide effects on handgun acquisition rather than the reverse. Larger city police forces discourage handgun ownership, supporting the idea that the provision of greater collective security reduces the felt need of the citizenry to provide their own protection.

Defensive gun use: vengeful vigilante imagery versus reality: results from the national self-defense survey

What kinds of people engage in defensive gun use and how do they differ from others? Data from a recent national survey on the prevalence and nature of defensive gun use compare gun defenders to others with a special focus on punitive attitudes toward criminals. The evidence suggests that persons using guns for self-defense do nor have extreme punitive attitudes toward criminals. The findings suggest, however, that there may be some mild indirect effects of punitive attitudes on defensive gun use through gun ownership. Language: en

A comparison of three sources of data on child homicide

This study compared data from death certificates (DC), medical examiner (ME) reports, and Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program for homicides among children age 5 years or younger in Jefferson County, Alabama between 1988 and 1998. Records from each source were matched independently to records from the other two sources. Kappa coefficients measured the chance-corrected agreement between sources. The strongest correlations were for victims gender and race. Correlations were weakest for victims relationship to the offender and offenders gender. DC and ME data demonstrated excellent agreement and provided a comprehensive count of homicides in Jefferson County, whereas UCR comparisons had lower correlations. However, the UCR is a valuable source of child homicide data in the United States that is underutilized in public health research.

When Prisoners Get Out: The Impact of Prison Releases on Homicide Rates, 1975-1999

Although studies examining the relationship between prison populations and homicide rates find significant negative impacts, no published studies have examined the impact of prison releases on homicide. The issue here is whether release rates directly affect crime, independently of any impact they might have through their impact on prison populations. We examine this question by regressing homicide rates on prison release rates, prison population, and numerous control variables using panel data for 46 states from 1975 to 1999. The results provide no evidence of a significant positive relationship between prison releases and homicide. Similar to prior studies, however, we found that prison population growth has greatly reduced homicide rates. The main policy implication of these findings is that those leaving prison have no greater propensity to commit homicide than those entering or remaining in prison.