Tommaso Moramarco

Assimilation of Surface- and Root-Zone ASCAT Soil Moisture Products Into Rainfall–Runoff Modeling

Nowadays, the availability of soil moisture estimates from satellite sensors offers a great chance to improve real-time flood forecasting through data assimilation. In this paper, two real data and two synthetic experiments have been carried out to assess the effects of assimilating soil moisture estimates into a two-layer rainfall-runoff model. By using the ensemble Kalman filter, both the surface- and root-zone soil moisture (RZSM) products derived by the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) have been assimilated and the model performance on flood estimation is analyzed. RZSM estimates are obtained through the application of an exponential filter. Hourly rainfall-runoff observations for the period 1994-2010 collected in the Niccone catchment (137 km2), Central Italy, are employed as case study. The ASCAT soil moisture products are found to be in good agreement with the modeled soil moisture data for both the surface layer (correlation coefficient (R) of 0.78) and the root zone (R = 0.94). In the real data experiment, the assimilation of the RZSM product has a significant impact on runoff simulation that provides a clear improvement in the discharge modeling performance. On the other hand, the assimilation of the surface soil moisture product has a small effect. The same findings are also confirmed by the synthetic twin experiments. Even though the obtained results are model dependent and site specific, the possibility to efficiently employ coarse resolution satellite soil moisture products for improving flood prediction is proven, mainly if RZSM data are assimilated into the hydrological model.

Soil as a natural rain gauge: Estimating global rainfall from satellite soil moisture data

Measuring precipitation intensity is not straightforward; and over many areas, ground observations are lacking and satellite observations are used to fill this gap. The most common way of retrieving rainfall is by addressing the problem “top-down” by inverting the atmospheric signals reflected or radiated by atmospheric hydrometeors. However, most applications are interested in how much water reaches the ground, a problem that is notoriously difficult to solve from a top-down perspective. In this study, a novel “bottom-up” approach is proposed that, by doing “hydrology backward,” uses variations in soil moisture (SM) sensed by microwave satellite sensors to infer preceding rainfall amounts. In other words, the soil is used as a natural rain gauge. Three different satellite SM data sets from the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT), the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E), and the Microwave Imaging Radiometer with Aperture Synthesis are used to obtain three new daily global rainfall products. The “First Guess Daily” product of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) is employed as main benchmark in the validation period 2010–2011 for determining the continuous and categorical performance of the SM-derived rainfall products by considering the 5 day accumulated values. The real-time version of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis product, i.e., the TRMM-3B42RT, is adopted as a state-of-the-art satellite rainfall product. The SM-derived rainfall products show good Pearson correlation values (R) with the GPCC data set, mainly in areas where SM retrievals are found to be accurate. The global median R values (in the latitude band ±50°) are equal to 0.54, 0.28, and 0.31 for ASCAT-, AMSR-E-, and SMOS-derived products, respectively. For comparison, the median R for the TRMM-3B42RT product is equal to 0.53. Interestingly, the SM-derived products are found to outperform TRMM-3B42RT in terms of average global root-mean-square error statistics and in terms of detection of rainfall events. The regions for which the SM-derived products perform very well are Australia, Spain, South and North Africa, India, China, the Eastern part of South America, and the central part of the United States. The SM-derived products are found to estimate accurately the rainfall accumulated over a 5 day period, an aspect particularly important for their use for hydrological applications, and that address the difficulties of estimating light rainfall from TRMM-3B42RT.

A First Assessment of the SMOS Soil Moisture Product With In Situ and Modeled Data in Italy and Luxembourg

The European Space Agency Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission was launched on November 2, 2009. Providing accurate soil moisture (SM) estimation is one of its main scientific objectives. Since the end of the commissioning phase, preliminary global SMOS SM data [Level 2 (L2) product] are distributed to users. In this paper, we carried out a first assessment of the reliability of this product through a comparison with in situ observed and modeled SM over three different sites: One is located in Luxemburg, and two are located in Italy. The period from August 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011, has been analyzed, giving us the opportunity to evaluate the satellite response to different SM states. The selected period is important for hydrological predictions as it is typically characterized by a sequence of transitions from dry to wet and from wet to dry conditions. In order to compare SMOS and ground SM measurements, a two-step approach has been applied. First, an exponential filter has been applied to approximate root-zone SM, and second, a cumulative distribution function matching has been employed to remove systematic differences between satellite and in situ observations and model simulations of SM. Our results indicate rather good reliability of the filtered and bias-corrected SM estimates derived from the first SMOS L2 products. Bearing in mind that an updated/advanced version of the SMOS SM product has been recently produced, our preliminary results already seem to confirm the potential of SMOS for monitoring of water in soils.

River Discharge Estimation by Using Altimetry Data and Simplified Flood Routing Modeling

A methodology to estimate the discharge along rivers, even poorly gauged ones, taking advantage of water level measurements derived from satellite altimetry is proposed. The procedure is based on the application of the Rating Curve Model (RCM), a simple method allowing for the estimation of the flow conditions in a river section using only water levels recorded at that site and the discharges observed at another upstream section. The European Remote-Sensing Satellite 2, ERS-2, and the Environmental Satellite, ENVISAT, altimetry data are used to provide time series of water levels needed for the application of RCM. In order to evaluate the usefulness of the approach, the results are compared with the ones obtained by applying an empirical formula that allows discharge estimation from remotely sensed hydraulic information. To test the proposed procedure, the 236 km-reach of the Po River is investigated, for which five in situ stations and four satellite tracks are available. Results show that RCM is able to appropriately represent the discharge, and its performance is better than the empirical formula, although this latter does not require upstream hydrometric data. Given its simple formal structure, the proposed approach can be conveniently utilized in ungauged sites where only the survey of the cross-section is needed.

Improving Landslide Forecasting Using ASCAT-Derived Soil Moisture Data: A Case Study of the Torgiovannetto Landslide in Central Italy

Predicting the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall triggered landslides represents an important scientific and operational issue due to the high threat that they pose to human life and property. This study investigates the relationship between rainfall, soil moisture conditions and landslide movement by using recorded movements of a rock slope located in central Italy, the Torgiovannetto landslide. This landslide is a very large rock slide, threatening county and state roads. Data acquired by a network of extensometers and a meteorological station clearly indicate that the movements of the unstable wedge, first detected in 2003, are still proceeding and the alternate phases of quiescence and reactivation are associated with rainfall patterns. By using a multiple linear regression approach, the opening of the tension cracks (as recorded by the extensometers) as a function of rainfall and soil moisture conditions prior the occurrence of rainfall, are predicted for the period 2007–2009. Specifically, soil moisture indicators are obtained through the Soil Water Index, SWI, a product derived by the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) on board the MetOp (Meteorological Operational) satellite and by an Antecedent Precipitation Index, API. Results indicate that the regression performance (in terms of correlation coefficient, r) significantly enhances if an indicator of the soil moisture conditions is included. Specifically, r is equal to 0.40 when only rainfall is used as a predictor variable and increases to r = 0.68 and r = 0.85 if the API and the SWI are used respectively. Therefore, the coarse spatial resolution (25 km) of satellite data notwithstanding, the ASCAT SWI is found to be very useful for the prediction of landslide movements on a local scale. These findings, although valid for a specific area, present new opportunities for the effective use of satellite-derived soil moisture estimates to improve landslide forecasting.

Formulation of the Entropy Parameter Based on Hydraulic and Geometric Characteristics of River Cross Sections

The linear entropic relation between mean flow velocity u¯ and maximum velocity umax is defined through a dimensionless entropy parameter M , which is found constant for gauged river sections. This entropic relation has been tested for many rivers and has been found to be fundamental to addressing velocity measurements during high floods when sampling can be carried out only in the upper portion of flow area where the maximum velocity umax occurs. It is therefore of considerable interest to investigate the possible dependence of M on hydraulic and geometric characteristics so that it can be determined for ungauged river sites. Thus, this study attempts to define the dependence of M on the geometric and hydraulic characteristics of river cross sections by coupling Manning’s equation expressing u¯ with the equation for umax obtained through a logarithmic velocity distribution, which takes into account the possibility that umax may occur below the water surface. Analysis shows that M does not depend on the e...

Data Assimilation of Satellite Soil Moisture into Rainfall-Runoff Modelling: A Complex Recipe?

Data assimilation (DA) of satellite soil moisture (SM) observations represents a great opportunity for improving the ability of rainfall-runoff models in predicting river discharges. Many studies have been carried out so far demonstrating the possibility to reduce model prediction uncertainty by incorporating satellite SM observations. However, large discrepancies can be perceived between these studies with the result that successful DA is not only related to the quality of the satellite observations but can be significantly controlled by many methodological and morphoclimatic factors. In this article, through an experimental study carried out on the Tiber River basin in Central Italy, we explore how the catchment area, soil type, climatology, rescaling technique, observation and model error selection may affect the results of the assimilation and can be the causes of the apparent discrepancies obtained in the literature. The results show that: (i) DA of SM generally improves discharge predictions (with a mean efficiency of about 30%); (ii) unlike catchment area, the soil type and the catchment specific characteristics might have a remarkable influence on the results; (iii) simple rescaling techniques may perform equally well to more complex ones; (iv) an accurate quantification of the model error is paramount for a correct choice of the observation error and, (v) SM temporal variability has a stronger influence than the season itself. On this basis, we advise that DA of SM may be not a simple task and one should carefully test the optimality of the assimilation experiment prior to drawing any general conclusions.

Integration of Satellite Soil Moisture and Rainfall Observations over the Italian Territory

State-of-the-art rainfall products obtained by satellites are often the only way of measuring rainfall in remote areas of the world. However,it is well known that they may fail in properly reproducing the amountof precipitation reaching the ground, which is of paramount importance for hydrological applications. To address this issue, an integration between satellite rainfall and soil moisture SM products is proposed here by using an algorithm, SM2RAIN, which estimates rainfall from SM observations. A nudging scheme is used for integrating SM-derived and state-of-the-art rainfall products. Two satellite rainfall products are considered: H05 provided by EUMESAT and the real-time (3B42-RT) TMPA product provided by NASA. The rainfall dataset obtained through SM2RAIN, SM2RASC, considers SM retrievals from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT). The rainfall datasets are compared with quality-checked daily rainfall observations throughout the Italian territory in the period 2010‐13. In the validation period 2012‐13, the integrated products show improved performances in terms of correlation with an increase in median values, for 5-day rainfall accumulations, of 26% (18%) when SM2RASC is integrated with the H05 (3B42-RT) product. Also, the median root-mean-square error of the integrated products is reduced by 18% and 17% with respect to H05 and 3B42RT, respectively. The integration of the products is found to improve the threat score for medium‐high rainfall accumulations. Since SM2RASC, H05, and 3B42-RT datasets are provided in near‐real time, their integration might provide more reliable rainfall products for operational applications, for example, for flood and landslide early warning systems.

Absolute versus temporal anomaly and percent of saturation soil moisture spatial variability for six networks worldwide

The analysis of the spatial-temporal variability of soil moisture can be carried out considering the absolute (original) soil moisture values or relative values, such as the percent of saturation or temporal anomalies. Over large areas, soil moisture data measured at different sites can be characterized by large differences in their minimum, mean, and maximum absolute values, even though in relative terms their temporal patterns are very similar. In these cases, the analysis considering absolute compared with percent of saturation or temporal anomaly soil moisture values can provide very different results with significant consequences for their use in hydrological applications and climate science. In this study, in situ observations from six soil moisture networks in Italy, Spain, France, Switzerland, Australia, and United States are collected and analyzed to investigate the spatial soil moisture variability over large areas (250–150,000 km2). Specifically, the statistical and temporal stability analyses of soil moisture have been carried out for absolute, temporal anomaly, and percent of saturation values (using two different formulations for temporal anomalies). The results highlight that the spatial variability of the soil moisture dynamic (i.e., temporal anomalies) is significantly lower than that of the absolute soil moisture values. The spatial variance of the time-invariant component (temporal mean of each site) is the predominant contribution to the total spatial variance of absolute soil moisture data. Moreover, half of the networks show a minimum in the spatial variability for intermediate conditions when the temporal anomalies are considered, in contrast with the widely recognized behavior of absolute soil moisture data. The analyses with percent saturation data show qualitatively similar results as those for the temporal anomalies because of the applied normalization which reduces spatial variability induced by differences in mean absolute soil moisture only. Overall, we find that the analysis of the spatial-temporal variability of absolute soil moisture does not apply to temporal anomalies or percent of saturation values.

Rainfall-runoff modelling by using SM2RAIN-derived and state-of-the-art satellite rainfall products over Italy

Abstract Satellite rainfall products (SRPs) are becoming more accurate with ever increasing spatial and temporal resolution. This evolution can be beneficial for hydrological applications, providing new sources of information and allowing to drive models in ungauged areas. Despite the large availability of rainfall satellite data, their use in rainfall-runoff modelling is still very scarce, most likely due to measurement issues (bias, accuracy) and the hydrological community acceptability of satellite products. In this study, the real-time version (3B42-RT) of Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis, TMPA, and a new SRP based on the application of SM2RAIN algorithm ( Brocca et al., 2014 ) to the ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) soil moisture product, SM2R ASC , are used to drive a lumped hydrologic model over four basins in Italy during the 4-year period 2010–2013. The need of the recalibration of model parameter values for each SRP is highlighted, being an important precondition for their suitable use in flood modelling. Results shows that SRPs provided, in most of the cases, performance scores only slightly lower than those obtained by using observed data with a reduction of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency ( NS ) less than 30% when using SM2R ASC product while TMPA is characterized by a significant deterioration during the validation period 2012–2013. Moreover, the integration between observed and satellite rainfall data is investigated as well. Interestingly, the simple integration procedure here applied allows obtaining more accurate rainfall input datasets with respect to the use of ground observations only, for 3 out 4 basins. Indeed, discharge simulations improve when ground rainfall observations and SM2R ASC product are integrated, with an increase of NS between 2 and 42% for the 3 basins in Central and Northern Italy. Overall, the study highlights the feasibility of using SRPs in hydrological applications over the Mediterranean region with benefits in discharge simulations also in well gauged areas.