Tomoaki Nishino

Development and Validation of a Potential-Based Model for City Evacuation in Post-Earthquake Fires

A computational model for the city evacuation of residents in post-earthquake fires has been developed. When a major earthquake affects a city in Japan, a tremendous number of evacuees are likely to escape in an urban area from hazards due to urban fires following the earthquake. The proposed model is based on the concept of potential. In this concept, an evacuee travels toward a descending direction of potential in the same manner that water runs from a high point to a low point. The potential is calculated from such hazard levels as the intensity of thermal radiation and the temperature rise caused by wind-blown fire plumes. In this paper, we simulate the evacuation behavior of residents in the 1923 Kanto earthquake fires to validate the proposed model. The number of fatalities estimated by the model is in reasonable agreement with the number of fatalities reported from the survey after the fires.

Validation of a Potential-based Evacuation Model of City Residents in Post-earthquake Fire

Evacuation of a large number of residents is conceivable in case of urban fires following a large earthquake in a city. It is essential to implement effective evacuation measures for ensuring residents’ safety in the regional disaster prevention plan. We have been developing a simulation model based on a potential method for the evacuation behaviors of city residents in a post-earthquake fire. The model has been validated by comparing the evacuation behaviors of Tokyo City residents in the Kanto Earthquake Fire, where the distribution of fatalities calculated by this model was qualitatively similar to that reported by the survey of that time. In this paper, the evacuation behaviors of Tokyo City residents in the Kanto Earthquake Fire were simulated for validating the prediction function of this model in terms of the traveling trajectory of an evacuee.

EXPERIMENTAL STUDY ON STAIR ASCENT TRANSPORTATION FOR VULNERABLE PEOPLE: Comparison by types of transportation; giving a piggyback ride, carrying a handy stretcher and carrying a wheelchair@@@背負い・簡易担架・車いすによる階段上昇搬送比較

This study is aiming to compare stair ascent transportation speed and physical burden of evacuation supporters according to the types of stair ascent transportation for vulnerable people experimentally. In this study, we measured heart rate of the supporters to indicate physical burden during the transportation. The subjects of this experiment were male students, age of 18-24. Experimental conditions were the ways of stair transportation and the weight of vulnerable people. The types of stair transportation were giving a piggyback ride, carrying a handy stretcher and carrying a wheelchair. Each experimental trial was video-recorded for measurement of ascent speed and observing supporters movement. As a result, this research proves that the weight of vulnerable people has an impact on the ascent speed and physical burden of supporter and giving a piggyback ride is the fastest in all ways of stair ascent transportation but the physical burden for a supporter is the heaviest.

Analysis of preparation time and evacuation speed of multiple-passenger baby strollers during urban evacuation drills

This study aims to analyze the preparation time and evacuation speed of multiple-passenger baby strollers with 4-6 children, during urban evacuation drills of nursery schools. The analysis of preparation time was focused in stroller set-up time and children boarding time. On sidewalk with inclination up to 5%, strollers with 1-3 conductors were driven at 1.3-1.6 m/s. Across an overpass bridge with 13%-21% of inclination, a stroller with 3 conductors were driven at 0.6-1.1 m/s. Speed tends to be affected mainly by slope inclination, children weight and quantity of conductor staff per stroller.