Tong Shu

GBOM-oriented management of production disruption risk and optimization of supply chain construction

A generic bill-of-materials (GBOM) describes demand for materials and their proportional relations to a family of products. Supply chain constructed from the perspective of the GBOM is able to respond swiftly to market demand and lean production can be achieved by managing the total cost of supply chain effectively. Based on the GBOM, this paper examines the control of production disruption risk related to supply chain and investigates the uncertainty of production in supply chain enterprises for the purpose of achieving optimal profits in supply chain. As the production disruption risk is controlled at a certain level, the selection model of supply chain partners, which is specific and more feasible, can be constructed. A combination of random simulation and neural network is deployed to approximate uncertain function, and genetic algorithm and simulated annealing arithmetic are also used to approximately achieve the optimal scheme of supply chain construction in the context of uncertainty.

An improved grey neural network model for predicting transportation disruptions

Market demand is highly unpredictable after transportation disruption.It designs an improved prediction model of grey neural networks.It determines the number of neurons in the input layer of BP neural networks.It tests the feasibility of the prediction model through case studies.It helps optimize inventory and production after transportation disruption. Transportation disruption is the direct result of various accidents in supply chains, which have multiple negative impacts on supply chains and member enterprises. After transportation disruption, market demand becomes highly unpredictable and thus it is necessary for enterprises to better predict market demand and optimize purchase, inventory and production. As such, this article endeavors to design an improved model of grey neural networks to help enterprises better predict market demand after transportation disruption and then the empirical study tests its feasibility. This improved model of grey neural networks exceeds the conventional grey model GM(1,1) with respect to the fact that the raw data tend to show exponential growth and data variation is required to be moderate, demonstrating the good attribute of nonlinear approximation in terms of neural networks, setting up standards for selecting the number of neurons in the input layer of BP neural networks, increasing the fitting degree and prediction accuracy and enhancing the stability and reliability of prediction. It can be applied to sequential data prediction in transportation disruption or mutation, contributing to the prediction of transportation disruption. The forecasting results can provide scientific evidence for demand prediction, inventory management and production of supply chain enterprises.

Analysing remanufacturing decisions of supply chain members in uncertainty of consumer preferences

ABSTRACT This article formulates a gaming model of the closed-loop supply chain with manufacturers (as the leader), sellers and consumers where consumers may or may not be willing to pay remunerative price for remanufactured products vis-à-vis new products. In the model, manufacturers produce new as well as remanufactured products, whereas sellers distribute them. In stable circumstances, this article presents the functional formula of the optimal manufacturing pricing decisions. The results show that when the cost of new products is significantly lower than that of remanufactured ones, manufacturers choose to produce new products only. When the difference between cost of new and remanufactured products is moderate, manufacturers tend to produce both new and remanufactured products, and in some regions, production of new and remanufactured products is proportional to each other. When the difference between cost of new and remanufactured products is enormous, their production and sale tend to stop. Also, this article analyses the effects of varying cost of new and remanufactured products and the recycling rate on pricing decisions of supply chain members. This article contributes to the management of manufacturers’ and sellers’ remanufacturing decisions and also provides advice on how governments can guide consumer preferences.

Supply chain grounded on information theory: criterion weighting and its explication of a hierarchical economic information filtering model of supplier selection

This paper explicates the criterion system weighting and importance sequence of supplier selection synthetically, in terms of hierarchy economic information filtering model, multiple turns of feedback from the management staff in manufacturing industries as well as analytic hierarchy process. Hierarchy economic information filtering model helps increase the probability of gaining valid information in supplier selection. The criterion system in the model is the valid information collection in supplier selection. The mean of dyadic comparisons among each hierarchy criterion is the degree of information relative importance in supplier selection. The results of each hierarchy criterion sequence are the importance sequencing of the information weight in valid information collection in supplier selection. Hierarchy economic information filtering model defines the information search criterion of supplier selection. It helps increase information search efficiency, save information search time and reduce cost. It helps dynamic supplier information filtrate, select, treat and response in real time.

A Study of Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment Mechanism of Agile Virtual Enterprises

The agile virtual enterprise (AVE) is a new and effective corporate organizational and production concept in the virtual economic environment; collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment (CPFR) is a scheme in which enterprise partners can pursue collaborative supply chains by sharing information, thus making it a forceful supplement for the concrete mechanism and principles of execution in AVE. Building on an analysis of AVE concepts, AVE-based CPFR and their relationship, and CPFR mechanisms and improved models, this study proposes the conditions needed for integration of AVE-based CPFR and potential future directions in this area

AVE–CPFR WORKING CHAINS ON THE BASIS OF SELECTION MODEL OF COLLABORATIVE CREDIT-GRANTING GUARANTEE APPROACHES

This paper presents AVE and CPFR concepts and their characteristics, establishes and analyzes the AVE-based CPFR working flow, and illustrates the content of the grid resource management and the mission in relation to the corresponding grid resource management system. It focuses on the working flow of the AVE-based CPFR. On this basis, it proposes the AVE-related CPFR mechanism grounded on grid, and further analyzes its working principles, grid methods matching the AVE-related CPFR working flow, the strengths of this mechanism as well as the n-tier prediction working flow. In addition, it constructs the selection model of credit-granting guarantee approaches and provides evidence for it. Under this mechanism, credit risk in the AVE enterprises can be optimized, and the AVE chain matches the working mechanism of CPFR in their capacities of real-time resource sharing, n-tier resource allocation, mission assignment, control, and supervision. It is hoped that the distance management and risk blockage could be achieved in supply chains within AVE enterprises by establishing a strong self-organized and self-control working chain.

Analysis of product return rate and price competition in two supply chains

This article compares a normal and a reverse supply chain in the Betrand Competition. Each supply chain consists of a retailer and an exclusive supplier with stable partnership. The two chains compete with each other in three competition structures: the Centralized Competition Game, the Hybrid Competition Game (including two cases), and the Decentralized Competition Game. In different competition structures, we examine how the degree of competition intensity between the two chains and product return rate of the reverse chain influence the equilibrium decision of market price, profits of two chains and the choice of centralization. The article differs from the study of the traditional supply chain model as follows. Firstly, we analyze the normal and the reverse chain related to the same product in the Betrand competition. Secondly, the data show that the market price decreases with the rising of the product return rate and the falling of the competition intensity. Thirdly, it is found that the total profit of the normal chain decreases with the rising of the product return rate, while the total profit of the reverse chain increases with rising of the product return rate. Profits of two chains increase with the rise of the competition intensity. Finally, this article shows that centralization is an optimal strategy for one chain whereas centralization may be the best for the other chain.

Demand disruption and coordination of supply chain via effort and revenue sharing

This article explores the equilibrium behaviour of a basic supplier–retailer distribution channel under demand disruption via effort and revenue sharing contract. This differs from the traditional supply chain coordination model. Firstly, demand is simultaneously affected by retail price and nonprice marketing effort from manufacturers and retailers. Secondly, when the demand is disrupted, this article considers disruptions in the market scale and price sensitivity coefficient. Thirdly, the supply chain coordination model is proposed via effort and revenue sharing contract. In this way, the manufacturer reduces the wholesale price as an incentive for the retailer to share revenue. Finally, the total supply chain profit is greater with contract than no contract. This also constitutes another incentive for the players to follow the effort and revenue sharing contract.

Supply chain grounded on information theory: a hierarchical economic information filtering model of supplier selection

This paper establishes a new hierarchical economic information filter model of supplier selection by analyzing the development process of the supplier selection methods as well as the historic criterion system and on the basis of the results of multiple turns of investigating and interviewing the management staff in different manufacturing enterprises. This model divides the selection process where the leading enterprises on the supply chain choose the suppliers into three stages: the stage of information collection and release, the stage of supplier selection and the stage of dynamic assessment of suppliers, corresponding to the criterion system of selecting and evaluating suppliers in hierarchy 1 search, hierarchy 2 search, and hierarchy 3 search. The establishment and application of this model can help specify the major tasks and foci of selecting and evaluating suppliers at different stages. It can help the leading enterprises adjust suppliers dynamically in terms of the assessment results. It can help shield from information disturbance and noises in selecting and evaluating suppliers at different stages. It can be seen as an extension of filtering economic information at different stages and in different modules.

Supply chain collaborative forecasting methods on the basis of factors

This paper proposes the supply chain collaborative forecasting methods on the basis of factors and presents the relevant empirical studies. In the light of the past actual sales data, factors of Spring Festival transportation, shutting down for examinations and repairs and minor repairs are extracted and quantified in different hierarchies and domains. At the same time, they are reverted in the corporate sales forecasting. The empirical studies indicate that factors play an important part in supply chain sales forecasting. Their application can greatly improve the specific and general forecasting accuracy and represents the thought of collaborative forecasting. They can contribute to the supply chain implication and prominent information application; they can contribute to positively employing the potential negative constraints of supply chain enterprises; they can contribute to the management of supply chain as the information whole. All these can be considered as an extension of the economic information filter in different hierarchies and modules.